Fielder?

[Smokin' Joe O]

A team like the Orioles can realistically only take one contractual gamble the size of the one Fielder will require, and they can't afford to be wrong.

You really want to put all your eggs in this particular basket?

I sure wouldn't. The weight thing alone would be enough to scare me off. Add the questions about his character and it's even easier to take a pass.

But how long do you stay on the sidelines and NOT upgrade your team just because you can't afford to be wrong? You could use that forever as an excuse to never add a big bat to the lineup that isn't in your system already.

In my eyes, we are the worst team in the league (and even in a better year, the worst team in the division), so even if it got a little worse, so what?

[JTrea81]

This is the same sort of thinking that gets a team into Soriano-type deals.

Commit oodles of money and keep your fingers crossed that the production will be what it's been in the past (because you desperately need it) despite the red flags.

Fielder comes off to me as a less nuclear Carlos Zambrano. Fiery and passionate mixed with immature and temperamental.

The one thing that has stuck with me is that Prince and Cecil had a falling out at some point years ago, and ever since Prince has rejected every one of Cecil's attempts to reconcile. To me that's petulant and immature.

This article is several years old but as best I know nothing has changed. Here's another.

Weight is the only red flag for Fielder. Soriano's game was dependent on his speed, which is one of the first things to go in a player as they age. He was also 30 when he signed (and there are still whispers that he is older). Fielder would be 27 years old next year, still with several prime years left.

Fielder's game doesn't rely on speed but pure power which he generates from his hips and his tremendous upper body strength.

As for his weight, he knows what he needs to do to keep it in check. I can see him remaining very productive until his early 30's.

As for his fire, he supposedly turns it off once he leaves the field (except toward his father). There are several articles that say he laughs and jokes in the clubhouse. It's not like he's Albert Belle and angry all the time...

[DrungoHazewood]

And how are we supposed to build a winning team with unknowns in the offense like you are suggesting with Davis, Kila etc.?

The same way that all other resource-disadvantaged teams try to build a winning team: by taking advantage of young, cost-controlled players who have more uncertainty in their forecasts than the type of player who'll demand $100M+ contracts.

This is really the fundamental point that you always make: The Orioles should trade large sums of money (almost always ahead of revenues to cover these expenses) and prospects to reduce the risk of performance failure. But the reality is the O's and other smaller market teams can't do that to any great extent. Not only is it highly risky from a fiscal perspective, but the league has regulations about debt that essentially prohibit it.

[Sports Guy]

Weight is the only red flag for Fielder. Soriano's game was dependent on his speed, which is one of the first things to go in a player as they age. He was also 30 when he signed (and there are still whispers that he is older). Fielder would be 27 years old next year, still with several prime years left.

Fielder's game doesn't rely on speed but pure power which he generates from his hips and his tremendous upper body strength.

As for his weight, he knows what he needs to do to keep it in check. I can see him remaining very productive until his early 30's.

I have a huge worry about Fielder.

That he has a monster year next year, gets a huge contract and stops caring about his weight.

What I would like to do is put some kind of a weight clause in his contract that if he exceeds a certain weight, then the contract is terminated.

I doubt that is legal in baseball and I doubt he would sign it but that would still make me feel better about him.

[Sports Guy]

We really need to try to find the next Carlos Pena...coughAlexGordoncough.

[JTrea81]

I have a huge worry about Fielder.

That he has a monster year next year, gets a huge contract and stops caring about his weight.

What I would like to do is put some kind of a weight clause in his contract that if he exceeds a certain weight, then the contract is terminated.

I doubt that is legal in baseball and I doubt he would sign it but that would still make me feel better about him.

Boras has worked deals before such as Ordonez with his knee. I'm sure that a team that would sign Fielder would want certain concessions regarding his weight.

We did have a weight clause with Javy Lopez, but it was an incentive, not a disincentive IIRC.

[brendanmdeegan]

I have a huge worry about Fielder.

That he has a monster year next year, gets a huge contract and stops caring about his weight.

What I would like to do is put some kind of a weight clause in his contract that if he exceeds a certain weight, then the contract is terminated.

I doubt that is legal in baseball and I doubt he would sign it but that would still make me feel better about him.

According to this, there is some legal precendence.

http://www.fannation.com/truth_and_rumors/view/150110-belliards-dodgers-deal-includes-weight-clause

Looks like the Dodgers put one in Ronnie Belliard's deal. They are more common in the NFL.

[Dr. FLK]

The same way that all other resource-disadvantaged teams try to build a winning team: by taking advantage of young, cost-controlled players who have more uncertainty in their forecasts than the type of player who'll demand $100M+ contracts.

This is really the fundamental point that you always make: The Orioles should trade large sums of money (almost always ahead of revenues to cover these expenses) and prospects to reduce the risk of performance failure. But the reality is the O's and other smaller market teams can't do that to any great extent. Not only is it highly risky from a fiscal perspective, but the league has regulations about debt that essentially prohibit it.

Are the Os considered a small market (serious question)? I certainly don't think of this franchise as being at a financial disadvantage to many teams. We aren't the Yanks/Sox...but we aren't anywhere near the Marlins either.

[JTrea81]

We really need to try to find the next Carlos Pena...coughAlexGordoncough.

And that's the problem, the next Carlos Pena isn't available and the O's can't afford to wait until he is...

The Orioles have blown so many opportunities to upgrade at 1B that they are left with a real desperate situation.

The FA market for 1B men stinks and the trade options are few and far between unless they want to sell the farm and/or commit $150+ million.

[DrungoHazewood]

As for his weight, he knows what he needs to do to keep it in check. I can see him remaining very productive until his early 30's.

That's nice. Now do the math to show that he's likely to be worth:

1) giving up multiple young, cost-controlled players, some of whom you'll have to assume will become good players, for one-and-a-half years of his production.

2) the risk of not resigning a Boras client, despite many suitors for his services with deeper pocketbooks and vastly better performance history.

3) a 5-8 year contract for $20M+ per season.

I'd be very interested in seeing a scenario where that works out in the Orioles' favor.

[DrungoHazewood]

Are the Os considered a small market (serious question)? I certainly don't think of this franchise as being at a financial disadvantage to many teams. We aren't the Yanks/Sox...but we aren't anywhere near the Marlins either.

Of course they're nowhere near the Marlins, no one is. But I have a hard time thinking the O's are any more than a mid-market franchise. They're 9th in the league in attendance (9th in '09, 10th in '08), they have a regional sports network that isn't in the same zip code as NESN or YES, they have an owner who hasn't been willing to prop up the team with his own fortune. The combined Washington-Baltimore area is way up there in market size, but Baltimore is definitely the smaller, poorer fraction of that.

[JTrea81]

That's nice. Now do the math to show that he's likely to be worth:

1) giving up multiple young, cost-controlled players, some of whom you'll have to assume will become good players, for one-and-a-half years of his production.

2) the risk of not resigning a Boras client, despite many suitors for his services with deeper pocketbooks and vastly better performance history.

3) a 5-8 year contract for $20M+ per season.

I'd be very interested in seeing a scenario where that works out in the Orioles' favor.

And how will signing Paul Konerko, Derek Lee or Carlos Pena to a multi-year contract work out?

[El Gordo]

We really need to try to find the next Carlos Pena...coughAlexGordoncough.

KotchmancoughWoodcough.:laughlol:

[davearm]

But how long do you stay on the sidelines and NOT upgrade your team just because you can't afford to be wrong?

For as long as it takes for the right risk to present itself.

It's JMHO, but this guy ain't it.

[davearm]

And how will signing Paul Konerko, Derek Lee or Carlos Pena to a multi-year contract work out?

Surely you appreciate that the risk exposure is nowhere near the same with those guys.