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Baseball Prospectus top 11 prospects still in the minors


Stan P

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http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=11354

Since I know a lot of people are still upset about last year's draft I figured #10 would be interesting to a lot of you.

10. Tyler Matzek, LHP, Rockies

Why He's Here: The best high school arm in the 2009 draft was held back in extended spring training, but he's been outstanding in seven starts for Low-A Asheville, limiting the Sally League to a .183 batting average while striking out 39 over 35 innings. With a 92-94 mph fastball that touches 96, he has plus-plus velocity for a lefty, and his curveball flashes true plus at times. He's big, athletic, projectable, and scouts love his mound presence.

Nitpicking: Matzek can lose the touch and feel on his secondary offerings, leading to control issues. He tends to work up in the zone, which could be an issue down the road.

Future: Matzek is a potentially special talent, but he's not on the fast track. He'll likely pitch at High-A in 2011.

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http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=11354

Since I know a lot of people are still upset about last year's draft I figured #10 would be interesting to a lot of you.

The write-up sounds like he could potentially be like Lester. It would be really nice to have Britton AND Matzek in our system. What a terrible draft, JJ failed the team on that one.

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We did not get the job done in the draft room in 2009. No excuses.
What a terrible draft, JJ failed the team on that one.

It is awfully early to be declaring the 2009 draft a failure. I don't think we'll have any idea how good or bad that draft was until maybe 2013.

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I saw Maztek in Savannah when I was on vacation. He didn't give up any hits, but the Sand Gnats had just won the first half title and sent I believe 7 guys up to Hi-A.

He was all over the place and didn't have the zip on the FB that I thought he would. I thought the kid sat in the mid 90s, but he was high 80s touching low 90s all night. I think my High School team could have beat the Sand Gnats that night.

Color me unimpressed the only time I saw him.

Edit: I didn't even read the report, but now I have. I agree with everything that was said minus the fact that he was not throwing gas. He must have had a dead arm period or something. I agree that he was up in the zone all night and all over the place.

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I saw Maztek in Savannah when I was on vacation. He didn't give up any hits, but the Sand Gnats had just won the first half title and sent I believe 7 guys up to Hi-A.

He was all over the place and didn't have the zip on the FB that I thought he would. I thought the kid sat in the mid 90s, but he was high 80s touching low 90s all night. I think my High School team could have beat the Sand Gnats that night.

Color me unimpressed the only time I saw him.

Edit: I didn't even read the report, but now I have. I agree with everything that was said minus the fact that he was not throwing gas. He must have had a dead arm period or something. I agree that he was up in the zone all night and all over the place.

For whatever reason, it seems like a lot of HS pitchers lose their velocity to some extent when they come to pro ball....Still a very good SP prospect, but not the elite arm we were hearing about leading up to the draft. He pretty much sounds like he is exactly what he was at the beginning of his senior season in HS(touching 94/95 with the FB). He pitches up in the zone which I am surprised no one has mentioned after reading that report.....I wonder if his command will come around....

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For whatever reason, it seems like a lot of HS pitchers lose their velocity to some extent when they come to pro ball....Still a very good SP prospect, but not the elite arm we were hearing about leading up to the draft. He pretty much sounds like he is exactly what he was at the beginning of his senior season in HS(touching 94/95 with the FB). He pitches up in the zone which I am surprised no one has mentioned after reading that report.....I wonder if his command will come around....

Thats because people exaggerate come draft time every year. It's what I was trying to tell you last year before he got picked that there was no way he was sitting that high, I just refused to believe it. Sometimes sure, you'll have a kid try to amp it up a bit just before draft time to get noticed, but he was already noticed and having a ton of success, he didn't need to risk losing control or getting batted around because he was overthrowing. It happens every year though, oh so and so is throwing 98 MPH!!! OMG for realz!!!

Just another bi-product of mainstream internet coverage and interest in scouting prospects.

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Thats because people exaggerate come draft time every year. It's what I was trying to tell you last year before he got picked that there was no way he was sitting that high, I just refused to believe it. Sometimes sure, you'll have a kid try to amp it up a bit just before draft time to get noticed, but he was already noticed and having a ton of success, he didn't need to risk losing control or getting batted around because he was overthrowing. It happens every year though, oh so and so is throwing 98 MPH!!! OMG for realz!!!

Just another bi-product of mainstream internet coverage and interest in scouting prospects.

This is right on. I see exaggerated velocities all the time, even in write ups on minor league players. A guy will sit 90-92 all game then hit hit a 93 or a 94 for one or two pitches and suddenly people are talking about him having a 92-94 MPH fastball.

Also, young hard throwing high schoolers almost always get listed at their peak velocities and once they have to start throwing every five days, taking long bus rides, learning to deal with being on their own their velocities tend to drop.

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The write-up sounds like he could potentially be like Lester. It would be really nice to have Britton AND Matzek in our system. What a terrible draft, JJ failed the team on that one.

For what seems like the fiftieth time:

NO, Hobgood was probably not the best player available at his slot.

HOWEVER, he was still a legitimate first-rounder.

ALSO, he signed for slot value.

BECAUSE OF THIS, Jordan was able to draft and sign the following, who he PROBABLY WOULD NOT HAVE BEEN ABLE TO if he had drafted Matzek:

- Mychal Givens

- Randy Henry

- Ashur Tolliver

- Aaron Wirsch

- Ryan Berry

- Jacob Cowan

- Michael Ohlman

- Jarret Martin

- Cameron Coffey

- Kyle Hoppy

How can you call the 2009 draft "failing up the team" when it got all that talent into the system? Matzek would have been nice, but there is NO WAY the O's would have Berry, Ohlman, and Givens in the system right now if they had taken Matzek, let alone all ten of those guys. The Orioles didn't have any talent depth in the low minors. Now they do. That was the goal of the 2009 draft, and it was a huge success, at least at this point in time.

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For what seems like the fiftieth time:

NO, Hobgood was probably not the best player available at his slot.

HOWEVER, he was still a legitimate first-rounder.

ALSO, he signed for slot value.

BECAUSE OF THIS, Jordan was able to draft and sign the following, who he PROBABLY WOULD NOT HAVE BEEN ABLE TO if he had drafted Matzek:

- Mychal Givens

- Randy Henry

- Ashur Tolliver

- Aaron Wirsch

- Ryan Berry

- Jacob Cowan

- Michael Ohlman

- Jarret Martin

- Cameron Coffey

- Kyle Hoppy

How can you call the 2009 draft "failing up the team" when it got all that talent into the system? Matzek would have been nice, but there is NO WAY the O's would have Berry, Ohlman, and Givens in the system right now if they had taken Matzek, let alone all ten of those guys. The Orioles didn't have any talent depth in the low minors. Now they do. That was the goal of the 2009 draft, and it was a huge success, at least at this point in time.

I don't disagree with this... but it begs the question:

Why not?

Given the realities of the division, the amateur draft is not the place to be going on the cheap.

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I agree (wouldn't it be great if Atkins' 4.5M could have gone to Matzek?), but that's a question of the judgment of MacPhail and Angelos. Jordan doesn't decide the budget. From that end, the 2009 draft was a resounding success.

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I don't disagree with this... but it begs the question:

Why not?

Given the realities of the division, the amateur draft is not the place to be going on the cheap.

I agree here. The O's should be at the very top of the heap when it comes to spending on the draft. We shouldn't be choosing between taking the best player available in the no. 5 overall spot and signing some overslots lower down in the draft. We should be doing both.

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