Comparing Jordan's drafts to other AL East teams

[QBsILLEST1]

http://pnrscouting.com/rankings_2010_draftboard_top300_pt1.html

Vitek #26

Brentz #14

Ranaudo #24

Workman #11

Somewhat surprised you had Workman so high, but OTOH, he kinda seemed to get slept on. For some reason, you never really heard him mentioned as the best college arm like McGuire did earlier in the year, or Ranaudo or Pomeranz or Sale. I wonder why that is, because he seemed to be on their level, just never seemed to be included in "who the best college arm" coversations that I ever heard......Maybe he was overshadowed by Jungmann?

[Stotle]

Somewhat surprised you had Workman so high, but OTOH, he kinda seemed to get slept on. For some reason, you never really heard him mentioned as the best college arm like McGuire did earlier in the year, or Ranaudo or Pomeranz or Sale. I wonder why that is, because he seemed to be on their level, just never seemed to be included in "who the best college arm" coversations that I ever heard......Maybe he was overshadowed by Jungmann?

I was probably higher on Workman than most, but I also saw one of his best games of the year in person and the other handful of games I watched he was solid, as well. I think his mechanics might limit his ceiling, but four workable pitches, a big durable frame and a track record are all "positives" in my book.

[allstar1579]

I was probably higher on Workman than most, but I also saw one of his best games of the year in person and the other handful of games I watched he was solid, as well. I think his mechanics might limit his ceiling, but four workable pitches, a big durable frame and a track record are all "positives" in my book.

I really liked him too. I was kind of shocked he fell through the 20's in the first. Not a superstar, but solid potential, kinda like an uninjured Gibson last year (who now is climbing the charts in MIN).

[Singleton]

I just don't agree with phrases like this, but think we view the draft and the art of crafting a draft class. We don't have to use words like "likely" or "for all we know". It is a fact that every organization was familiar with Pedro Alvarez. I agree that we have no idea where, based on talent, Alvarez fell on different boards.

It goes back to my statement that you can acknowledge talent ID from one organization without blasting another. I don't see how you can disagree with that. There were comparable "talents" to Pedro in his HS class that were likewise drafted in later rounds. The reason the average fan knows about BOS drafting Pedro is because he continued to progress and turned into an outstanding player.

The unique thing about Pedro is that he was an incredible player right off the bat as a freshman. He's the equivalent of an Austin Maddox or a Jayce Boyd. How does it not speak highly of an org that drafted and didn't sign a player like that as compared to an org that signed a different "tough sign" player who ended up struggling in college and not developing into a Top 100 guy? If every single organization is signing players that they know they are unlikely to sign, why can't we acknowledge when one organization is more consistently identifying the players that are successful in the long term?

I come not to blast JJ nor to praise him

but I am interested in evaluating his performance.

To address your point, maybe we should just compare like with like. Here's a list of the drafted and signed talent of teams in the AL east that went on to a major league career. Here's a list of the drafted and unsigned talent that went on to a MLB career.

I understand what you are saying -- that there is talent involved in IDing eventual MLBers but ultimately it is about IDing AND signing the talent and I find it hard to know what to make of only completing the ID part.

[Stotle]

I come not to blast JJ nor to praise him

but I am interested in evaluating his performance.

To address your point, maybe we should just compare like with like. Here's a list of the drafted and signed talent of teams in the AL east that went on to a major league career. Here's a list of the drafted and unsigned talent that went on to a MLB career.

I understand what you are saying -- that there is talent involved in IDing eventual MLBers but ultimately it is about IDing AND signing the talent and I find it hard to know what to make of only completing the ID part.

I think this is fair, and you are absolutely right there needs to be a better apples-to-apples comparison to really get at the heart of the matter. I'd even go a step further and say you really need to dig into the types of players signed/not signed (higher ceiling/avg probability college, higher ceiling/lower probability HS, avg ceiling/good probability college, etc.).

Good post. Thanks for the back-and-forth -- I was overlooking the importance of comparing with more specificity, and thanks for pointing it out.

[Singleton]

I think this is fair, and you are absolutely right there needs to be a better apples-to-apples comparison to really get at the heart of the matter. I'd even go a step further and say you really need to dig into the types of players signed/not signed (higher ceiling/avg probability college, higher ceiling/lower probability HS, avg ceiling/good probability college, etc.).

Good post. Thanks for the back-and-forth -- I was overlooking the importance of comparing with more specificity, and thanks for pointing it out.

Yea. Good discussion. Thanks for your insights into the drafting process.

[AZRon]

During 2005-2010 the Red Sox had 30 picks in the first 3 rounds (+supplementals) and the Os had 17.

The Sox have worked the system very, very well.

Jordan hasn't had as many opportunities as his RS counterpart.

Here are the numbers for the rest of the division:

Tampa 21

Toronto 27

NY 18

Of course, a few of these picks are compensation for not signing a player from the previous year.

I've adjusted the table to include:

the draft position of the team for each year

the overall draft position of the drafted player

Link to Comparison with AL Central Draft

Link to Comparison with AL West Draft

[font=courier][u]2005		            2006	      2007	          2008[/u][b][u]Orioles[/b][/u]		-- 13 --                 -- 9 --             -- 5 --           -- 4 --(483)David Hernandez	(175)Jason Berken (159)Jake Arrieta   (4)Brian Matusz(48)Garrett Olson		            (5)Matt Wieters		[i](363)John Raynor[/i]						(61)Nolan Reimold(13)Brandon Snyder						[u][b]Rays[/b][/u]-- 8 --                  -- 3 --             -- 1 --           -- 1 --(118)Jeremy Hellickson   (47)Josh Butler   (1)David Price		[i](538)Tommy Hunter[/i]       [i](379)Mike Minor[/i]				[i](748)Clayton Mortenson[/i]    (3)Evan Longoria[i](568)Ike Davis[/i]          (269)Desmond Jennings[u][b]Blue Jays[/b][/u]-- 6 --                 -- 14 --            -- 21 --          -- 17 --(206)Robert Ray	    [i](660)Brad Mills[/i]        (38)Brett Cecil		 (6)Ricky Romero    (14)Travis Snider	  (145)Brad Mills		[i](1253)Brett Wallace[/i]	                  (175)Marc Rzepczynski				   (21)J. P. Arencibia		[u][b]Red Sox[/b][/u]-- 28 --                -- 27 --            -- 20 --          -- 30 --(47)Michael Bowden    (28)Daniel Bard				(42)Clay Buchholz     (71)Justin Masterson				(26)Craig Hansen     (163)Dustin Richardson			[i](438)Pedro Alvarez[/i]   (553)Lars Anderson  				[i](1303)Jason Castro[/i]    (83)Aaron Bates 			(23)Jacoby Ellsbury  (283)Ryan Kalish					[i](1008)John Hester[/i]   [i](433)Matt LaPorta[/i]   					(45)Jed Lowrie	    (523)Josh Reddick				[u][b]Yankees[/b][/u]-- 29 --                -- 28 --            -- 30 --         -- 28 --[i](199)Doug Fister[/i]      (41)Joba Chamberlain [i](1050)Drew Storen[/i]		(169)Zach Kroenke     (21)Ian Kennedy				(109)Brett Gardner   (404)Daniel McCutchen				(259)Austin Jackson  (284)Mark Melancon				[i](889)Justin Turner[/i]   (524)David Robertson					     (134)Colin Curtis					     (614)Kevin Russo

[/font]

[AZRon]

Updated through 8/13

[AZRon]

Updated through 10/25

[Enjoy Terror]

Development has as much to do with anyone's success as drafting does. This is probably why the Red Sox have consistently picked in the bottom 10 teams for the past 4 years and still have a great idea of how to put a prospect into the bigs, and the Orioles are within the top ten teams and seem clueless about promoting guys.