Third base in 2011, if Bell can't cut it.

[waroriole]

I've spoken with a few evaluators this summer that have stated that Fangraph's "WAR" has too low a threshold for replacement players (for whatever that is worth). In my opinion, it's a useful quick tool to compare players and ballpark their value, but I agree it shouldn't be the be-all-end-all.

Agreed. The problem comes when you look to one tool to determine a guy's worth. They all have their problems, but they all are nice quick references.

[Three Run Homer]

The problem with this line of thinking is that the FA crop of 3B men in 2012 is terrible and it's going to be some time before guys like Wright and Zimmerman are going to be available:

Beltre is going to be the best option to upgrade 3B with a proven option for quite some time.

Won't Aramis Ramirez hit free agency next offseason, assuming that he exercises his player option for 2011 (very likely) while the Cubs turn down his club option for 2012 (also likely)?

[JTrea81]

Won't Aramis Ramirez hit free agency next offseason, assuming that he exercises his player option for 2011 (very likely) while the Cubs turn down his club option for 2012 (also likely)?

Do you really want to sign him to a LT deal when you could have had Beltre, a better defender instead?

If Beltre's bat declines he still has his glove. If Ramirez's bat declines his value drops a ton, and the only way the Cubs turn down his 2012 option is if that bat declines to a point where he's not worth that money and then you wouldn't want him anyway. His option is only $16 million for 2012.

Now he can void it and opt out, but he's going to want more money that we would have given Beltre to come to Baltimore if he does that IMO.

[olehippi]

And if the O's want to win as many games as they can, if they leave Bell at 3B they'll have to find premium solutions for LF and 1B instead.

If the O's pass on Beltre though, and Bell is a bust, they are likely screwed for several years at that position because of the lack of talent at 3B in general in baseball and the fact the good talent at that position is locked up for several years.

Can they afford to take that chance? I think they at least have to make a solid run at him to try to lure him here.

Then if you don't get him you can put Bell there and cross your fingers, but there's no way we should depend on Bell for the 3B job unless he has a monster September.

Yes, they can afford to take a chance with Bell. He just turned 23 yrs old. Beltre will be 32 at the start of next season, so obviously he IS NOT the long-term solution we need at 3B. I think most people understand that the Orioles are at least 2 years away from being true contenders no matter what they do....short of spending an additional $100M or so, which won't happen. And, before they do put the final pieces in place, have to find out which of these young kids are part of the solution.

[JTrea81]

And, before they do put the final pieces in place, have to find out which of these young kids are part of the solution.

That's what this year was supposed to be for.

[olehippi]

That's what this year was supposed to be for.

No it wasn't....this was just another year in a much longer rebuilding plan. If you think a team as sad as the Orioles were can be completely rebuild in 3 years, you're not in touch with reality.

[JTrea81]

No it wasn't....this was just another year in a much longer rebuilding plan. If you think a team as sad as the Orioles were can be completely rebuild in 3 years, you're not in touch with reality.

Or I haven't lowered my expectations...

It doesn't matter - Buck was brought in for a reason. Bell is playing for his job and if he can't cut it in September, the Orioles will likely replace him in the offseason.

And he's going to have to show a lot more in September to keep his job.

[olehippi]

Or I haven't lowered my expectations...

It doesn't matter - Buck was brought in for a reason. Bell is playing for his job and if he can't cut it in September, the Orioles will likely replace him in the offseason.

And he's going to have to show a lot more in September to keep his job.

I haven't lowered my expectations.....I approach things rationally. And perhaps your expectations are unrealistic. Possible, right?

As for Bell.....I doubt the Orioles will pass judgment on his abilities based upon a brief end-of-year stint. That would be foolish IMO. Besides, he has shown steady improvement so far.....just not enough for your lofty expectations.....

[VTmook213]

His value lies not only in his bat but his glove.

Even if he only produces with the bat like he did similar to Seattle, he's still likely to be a 4.0+ WAR player.

Can we really say that about Josh Bell?

If he produces like he did similar to Seattle, he'll be nowhere near a 4.0+ WAR player.

In 5 years in Seattle, Beltre broke 4.0 WAR once (on both fangraphs and baseball reference). In fact, over the course of his career, Beltre has broken the 4.0 WAR barrier just 3 times (according to BR; 5 times according to fangraphs) in 13 seasons.

I don't think we can count on the fact that as his bat returns to a normal level, his fielding will carry him to a 4.0+ WAR.

[Stotle]

For the record, I can't imagine BAL not giving Bell every opportunity to win a starting role in the near future. An organization should always work to improve, and yes an organization shouldn't avoid an opportunity to improve because they have a potential future solution at the MiL level, but when you sink organizational resources into a player (signing bonus, developmental time, trade, etc.) it's usually in your best interest to at least try and make that investment work.

Put another way, something brought you to the point where you committed certain resources to bringing a player to your 25 man roster. If you are going to second guess those decisions before even giving a player a real chance to stick, you're doing something wrong.

[VeveJones007]

For the record, I can't imagine BAL not giving Bell every opportunity to win a starting role in the near future. An organization should always work to improve, and yes an organization shouldn't avoid an opportunity to improve because they have a potential future solution at the MiL level, but when you sink organizational resources into a player (signing bonus, developmental time, trade, etc.) it's usually in your best interest to at least try and make that investment work.

Put another way, something brought you to the point where you committed certain resources to bringing a player to your 25 man roster. If you are going to second guess those decisions before even giving a player a real chance to stick, you're doing something wrong.

But what if you use that player in a trade to upgrade the position or another position? See the White Sox dealing Daniel Hudson for (a now lights-out) Edwin Jackson.

I would be for adding Beltre if Bell were a primary component of a trade for an upgrade at SS, 1B, or SP. If not, then it's Bell's job to lose.

[clapdiddy]

Bell has looked over-matched tonight.

[olehippi]

Bell has looked over-matched tonight.

So has Roberts 0-3 with 2 K's.

Despite the fact that Bell has hit better from the right side so far, it seems that Lester definitely exposed that RH weakness we've heard about. But then, Lester has done the same to some of the best hitters in baseball.

[Stotle]

But what if you use that player in a trade to upgrade the position or another position? See the White Sox dealing Daniel Hudson for (a now lights-out) Edwin Jackson.

I would be for adding Beltre if Bell were a primary component of a trade for an upgrade at SS, 1B, or SP. If not, then it's Bell's job to lose.

Yup, I think that would just qualify as turning over the asset and using it to acquire something else (rather than burying it).

[JTrea81]

Yup, I think that would just qualify as turning over the asset and using it to acquire something else (rather than burying it).

And this is what I would advocate. Sign Beltre and use Bell in a package to upgrade 1B.