What If Tejada Is Traded?

[mweb]

If he's traded, good luck getting another top free agent to sign here. Another question is: If the O's were in a playoff hunt and had a chance to acquire Tejada, what would you give from our system for him?

Considering Miggy demanded a trade this past offseason and we would be doing him a favor by trading him to a contender, I don't think trading him will hurt our reputation with FA's.

That said, our rep is already terrible and it will be hard to attract major FA's who are being pursued by others regardless of Miggy's status.

[Whatever0]

If the Orioles trade Tejada, they better get a lot of value in return. Let's try to put Tejada's value to the team in perspective:

He currently leads the Orioles in GP, AB, R, H, HR, RBI, SLG, and OPS. If he gets on base once more than Roberts tonight, he'll also lead the team in OBP. He's doing all this as a shortstop. Replace Tejada's 411 ABs this year with production similar to Fahey's, and the Os lose 27 runs on offense, dropping them from 15th in baseball to 24th in runs scored. He's been worth 5.2 wins above replacement this year, leading the team. The hitters with WARP better than that this year: Hafner, Mauer, Pujols, Sizemore, Berkman, Beltran, Nick Johnson, Dye, Cabrera, and Bay. That put's him at 11th in WARP, 11th in VORP in all of baseball. He's only 30 years old, and has had his best three years the past three seasons. He's also signed for three more years at a reasonable rate.

If the Orioles trade Tejada, they need to make all of that up. I'm not saying it can't be done with just prospects - say, a deal centering around Brandon Wood - but it would be almost impossible. If they really are going to trade Tejada, the time to do it is the offseason, when they are most likely to get a fair deal. The front office has handled the Tejada situation well, with patience. If they trade Tejada and don't get back what he's worth, they might as well write off the next three seasons.

[Fairfax Bird]

The associate editor asking this question. I mean from Sports Guy this doesn't mean much (Only cause he asks this question twice a week!). I'm going to throw the conspiracy theory out there that the O's brass asks John to put this out there to see what true Oriole fans think.

For two good prospects, really good prospects and a third decent, I would be pumped.

[MP]

Good post, Whatever0

[Flosman]

It will tell me that the baseball people are being allowed to do their jobs (right or wrong is debateable based on who they get back). Oviously PA opposes this course of action.

[UMBCOriole]

Within the last two weeks I've done a complete 180 on this issue. I used to think we should keep Tejada but I'm now convinced that we should trade him. If we could get a package of prospects like those being discussed from the Angels I'd be all for it. I don't think we are going anywhere with Tejada this year or next. If we brought in the likes of Woods, Kendick Kotchman,Aybar etc. we could couple them with our young pitching and become very exciting. As a result of some smart deals this year the Marlins are well on their way to reloading again. Tejada is the only piece we have to accelerate that process for us.

I agree. I was all for keeping Tejada and trading for Burrell/Abreu with the plan of competing the next few years. Now that trading with the Phils seems unlikely (unless we end up with Abreu by just eating salary since the market seems dry for him) I'm all for trading with the Angels for a package of Kotchman/Kendrick/Wood/Aybar, etc. I think it helps that I did a little research on the Angels prospects and I feel real comfortable with them being able to step in next year and play right away.

If we go that route, we also need to trade for Shealy and try to have the guys develop together (I realize Shealy is older). I won't mind the growing pains that come with developing youngsters because it's fun to watch young guys who have great potential to lead the team in the following years.

[BigSkip]

What if Tejada is traded?

We end up with a worse record next year than this season and we have nothing in terms of run producing RBI/HR guys besides a broken Jay Gibbons and an aging Melvin Mora.

The team isnt that far away from contending. The pitching is coming around...they just need to add peices around the core. Blowing this up now would only set us into another downward spiral.

What? We need three starting pitchers (and Loewen, Penn, Cabrera or whomever else in the minors you want to bring up don't count, because we don't know how they'll actually pan out), another arm or three for the bullpen, a first baseman, and a left fielder.

[boulware0]

I with the people that say it strictly depends on what we get in return. If they can get a strong package from a team like the Angels then I think it would be a great move. However, if they traded him and did not get much then it would be a horrible move.

In my opinion, if Tejada gets traded for a strong package then they would give us talented young players plus more cap space to add a big bat. A strong trade would show me that the O's realize that we cannot contend with our current roster and need to get more youth and athleticism. It would also show me that they are willing to make a bold move that they feel will help the Orioles in the long run and Angelos is not getting in their way.

[square634]

I really think that if we make the right moves at the deadline and during the offseason, we can be a lock for .500 next year and definitely be in contention for the 2008 season. For the first time in a while, I have a feeling that we are closer than we've ever been in the last 9 years to putting it together, especially with the Yankees core aging rapidly. The Orioles overrated their starting pitchers last year, which, combined with some worse luck, has been our real downfall. If we add a Lee/Soriano and a Shealy or other first baseman (UNDER the age of 37!!), our lineup looks solid. I think it is reasonable to expect Bedard to put up a season above average for a #1 pitcher (if he is not a bonafide ace by then), and Benson is a sold #3/4. If between Cabrera/Penn/Loewen we can find two reliable starters (my guess is Penn will be the most consistent with the other two fighting for the #5 spot), a solid veteran FA could stabilize our rotation. Now, if we were to somehow coax Smoltz into reuniting with Mazzone, or, better yet, land Zito or Schmidt ( ), then we would really have a great staff:

Smoltz/Zito/Schmidt, Bedard, Benson, Penn, Cabrera

I think that if we deal Tejada, we will be further away from contention than we are now, and I think Tejada will be appeased if we at least make a reasonable attempt in the offseason. I know it's WAY too much to expect for us to really do something competent/aggressive in the offseason, but it could happen if PA feels emboldened by his MASN deal. I think that team could definitely contend for a playoff spot next year with better luck, and certainly in 2 years with a few more additions.

OK, I think I've had a little bit too much to drink....

[El Gordo]

If he's traded, good luck getting another top free agent to sign here. Another question is: If the O's were in a playoff hunt and had a chance to acquire Tejada, what would you give from our system for him?

There are two ways to go; trade Tejada for prospects and rebuild or keep him and build around him with some big bats and maybe a pitcher or two . The key to deciding which way to go is the state of our pitching. It hasn't panned out as we expected. The next two months are cruciaL. If Penn Loewen and Cabrera can show promise then trading Tejada is not a good idea. Better to add a couple of bats. But if they continue to struggle then all bets are off and Tejada needs to be traded. However we can't know that now. The best course of action IMHO is to wait for the off season when we will know more and get a better return on trades as well.

[TinCup]

All I keep reading from those who want top keep Miggy and 'continue' to rebuild around him is stuff like "all we need is one or two big bats, another #1 or #2 SP, and some BP help, and maybe some more bench depth.

But what I don't see is HOW we get ALL of that???

Through free agency? Puhlease. There is NO/NO reason to believe Angelos is going to open the vault doors up and raise the payroll up to 90-100M. None at all. Its going to be more of the spendthrift ways.

Through other trades? Who do we have that is of ANY worth value aside from Miggy? Melmo? Can't trade him either can we now. RLo? Come on already.

It is a catch-22.

We don't have the right owner to really build around Miggy and we don't have the depth and type of talent to build around him either.

If they trade him and really commit to a younger, hungrier team with potential, I would prefer that than this yearly smoke and mirror slop that gets thrown out on the field.

[bluedog]

If he's traded, good luck getting another top free agent to sign here. Another question is: If the O's were in a playoff hunt and had a chance to acquire Tejada, what would you give from our system for him?

Gotta say I disagree. I don't see any Free Agents lining up to come here even with Tejada.

The O's have now failed in two straight off-seasons to sign a truly impact free agent despite making significant offers to several (Konerko being the most obvious). So I'm not sold that how we handle Tejada is going to have any impact on our ability to sign FAs given the fact it hasn't helped us thus far.

Money and winning are the things that will bag quality Free Agents, not any touchy feely stuff. This is a business, not a mutual admiration society.

Trade Tejada now and get a bunch of top quality prospects (Wood!) who can help the club at multiple positions in 1 - 2 years. Then slash the deadwood out of the roster between now and spring of 2008 and throw a ton of money at 2 - 3 superstar caliber Free Agents to fill in around the strong, young team we should have built through our farm system and trades by then.

[utvolzac]

All I keep reading from those who want top keep Miggy and 'continue' to rebuild around him is stuff like "all we need is one or two big bats, another #1 or #2 SP, and some BP help, and maybe some more bench depth.

But what I don't see is HOW we get ALL of that???

Through free agency? Puhlease. There is NO/NO reason to believe Angelos is going to open the vault doors up and raise the payroll up to 90-100M. None at all. Its going to be more of the spendthrift ways.

Through other trades? Who do we have that is of ANY worth value aside from Miggy? Melmo? Can't trade him either can we now. RLo? Come on already.

It is a catch-22.

We don't have the right owner to really build around Miggy and we don't have the depth and type of talent to build around him either.

If they trade him and really commit to a younger, hungrier team with potential, I would prefer that than this yearly smoke and mirror slop that gets thrown out on the field.

I agree with you 100%. These are the reasons, I've joined the Trade Miggy bandwagon. In an ideal world, I'm sure everybody here would rather keep Miggy than trade him. Unfortunately, if we keep him, I have zero confidence that we will acquire the necessary pieces to build around him.

I fear that if we don't trade him, he'll just waste away on an 4th place team until his contract expires.

If Angelos decides to open up the bank account and properly build around Miggy, then I would quickly change my mind and vote to keep him. However, I don't see that happening any time soon.

[JohnD]

Just so you guys know, NO ONE asked me to post this question. I came up with it on my own. I was just curious what you guys would have to say about it.

[TinCup]

Just so you guys know, NO ONE asked me to post this question. I came up with it on my own. I was just curious what you guys would have to say about it.

John, great thought provoking question.

In turn, what do you think about Miggy leaving?

Would value your thoughts.