Nick's defense..UZR

[Frobby]

Weighing in late here. 1970 posted some stats provided by Hallas a few days ago showing that all the Orioles OF's have a much better UZR on the road than at home, strongly suggesting that whatever park adjustments they are making for OPACY are way off base. Nick has been well above average in the OF this year IMO.

[baltfan]

Weighing in late here. 1970 posted some stats provided by Hallas a few days ago showing that all the Orioles OF's have a much better UZR on the road than at home, strongly suggesting that whatever park adjustments they are making for OPACY are way off base. Nick has been well above average in the OF this year IMO.

But this proves my point precisely. There is always an excuse for this stat. You can't look at it for one year. It does a poor job judging first basemen. Orioles outfielders fare better on the road. There seem to be so many issues that it is unlikely the stat is very reliable.

So, then I hear people say take it with a grain of salt. Why take it at all? Simply because we have to have a defensive metric even if there seems to be all kinds of flaws in it and its validity cannot be proven?

The craziest thing about UZR is that repeatedly we are told that over a single season it is basically worthless, but the vast majority of the time that it is ever brought up it is in describing a single season. Those who like it loved to point at Gutierrez and Utley last year. Those who hate it pointed to Teixeira last year.

[ShaneDawg85]

OMG!!!! Dempsey, Oldfan's hero, just said Nick should win the GG! :clap3:

Hmm, Jim Palmer has said it, and now everyone's favorite broadcaster Rick Dempsey said it. Hmm.:scratchchinhmm:

[AuburnAL]

Weighing in late here. 1970 posted some stats provided by Hallas a few days ago showing that all the Orioles OF's have a much better UZR on the road than at home, strongly suggesting that whatever park adjustments they are making for OPACY are way off base. Nick has been well above average in the OF this year IMO.

Is there a way to look at the UZR that all non Nick Markakis right fielders have earned this season (or for any given season) when they played at Camden Yard? Not the UZR for each one, an aggregate number for the "average" right fielder not named Markakis playing at Camden Yard. That way it will be easy to see if (according to UZR) Markakis is a better than average right fielder at Camden yards, or worse. Wouldn't all right fielders playing at Camden Yard suffer, or benefit, from the same park effect?

[Sports Guy]

Is UZR better than the defensive efficiency stat?

To me, that is the easiest and best defensive stat.

[El Gordo]

A system that tells me, a medium GB hit to vector G5, is played for an out by 70% of 3B, but 3BX gets to that ball 90% of the time and 3BY gets to it 60% of the time is pretty usful IMO. The same system is used for all players and with defensive metrics you are comparing performance more than counting. It doesn't tell me everything. It can't measure a C's pitch calling or a 1B's ability to pick balls in the dirt, or a CF's consistency for hitting the cutoff man, but it tells me a lot.

[Mark Carver]

A system that tells me, a medium GB hit to vector G5, is played for an out by 70% of 3B, but 3BX gets to that ball 90% of the time and 3BY gets to it 60% of the time is pretty usful IMO. The same system is used for all players and with defensive metrics you are comparing performance more than counting. It doesn't tell me everything. It can't measure a C's pitch calling or a 1B's ability to pick balls in the dirt, or a CF's consistency for hitting the cutoff man, but it tells me a lot.

Huh? And here I thought having to remember that 1 is the pitcher, 2 is the catcher 3 is the 1st baseman and 6 is the shortstop in scoring a ballgame was confusing...

[PBR Street Gang]

Here's a relevant article. I hope it sheds some light.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/tim_marchman/08/11/marchman.defensive.stats/index.html

[baltfan]

I'm not sure what you're trying to prove. Is it that UZR has flaws? Okay, you're obviously not the first to do so. (By the way, you've never seen me say that it isn't without flaws.) By the way, please point me to a stat that isn't flawed. There is no such thing as a perfect stat. Is it that people are misusing the stat? We agree completely. UZR certainly isn't the first or last stat to be misused - including ERA, OPS, and many others.

Defensive stats are behind pitching stats and offensive stats - there's no doubting that. Today's version is simply the next step in the progression of defensive stats. They are a huge improvement over what we've had in the past - please try to prove that isn't true. Defensive stats have come a long way in the last 5 to 10 years - much further than pitching and hitting stats (which stands to reason since they have further to go). So what are you going to say when the next generation (those based on video) tells us that UZR, +/-, etc. weren't as bad as people like you say they are?

No one is forcing you to read any threads in which UZR is discussed - so ignore those threads. No one is forcing you to have complete faith in what UZR or any other defensive stat is telling us - so why act like they are? Pretty simple concepts, actually. Also, why pick on just UZR? Why not slam all of the other defensive stats while you're at it?

When it comes to measuring defensive skill my suggestion (as made earlier in this thread) is to look at every defensive stat to which you have access (most of which are posted on Fangraphs) - including the traditional stats. Look at them compositely (like they're doing in the current series on Fangraphs). Compare them to whatever scouting reports you can find - including what's written on sites such as this one. Compare everything to your own opinion.

Look at that, no excuses made.

One other thing, since you're apparently so caught up in this great injustice, why not chime in on the threads going on right now at Fangraphs (assuming that you aren't already). If you'd like I can probably locate the email address for Mitchel Lichtman (sp?) - the guy who created the stat. I'd love to see his response to your concerns.

I think the issue that I have more than anything is the disdain that many, not necessarily saying you, seem to show for those that claim their own eyes are more accurate than UZR or other defensive stats. These people are often ostracized and laughed at. When it comes to defensive stats though they have come a long way, I am not sure they are better than what most good fans can observe over 162 games.

I am not saying that an Oriole fan can opine re: Ichiro's defensive prowess. But if you are an Orioles fan and watch 140 games a year, you very well be able to more accurately judge Markakis or any other Oriole's defensive prowess than the defensive stats. And those people that do should not be treated with disdain by those that prefer to rely on defensive stats that they know to be flawed.

[baltfan]

You know what, I can agree with pretty much everything you've written here. I can't and won't speak for anyone else, but I don't see the other teams enough be able to compare Orioles defenders to players from other teams - I feel like I need to rely on the stats to tell me that.

Having said that, I still think our eyes/memory fool us enough that they aren't as reliable as they need to be, but if you or anyone else wants to rely solely on them, more power to you (I'm not going to knock you or them for that).

On the topic of Markakis, while I think he's a pretty good RF, I also think he's overrated defensively by many on here.

I think we are in agreement on all of this. I will tend to rely on my eyes more on defense because I think it is a bit easier to judge and the defensive stats as everyone admits have some way to go.

I also agree with you that Markakis is above average as a defender, but I wouldn't put him in Ichiro's class, for example.

You are obviously very knowledgeable regarding statistics. I just get annoyed at those that don't seem to realize their inherent flaws and that no one has it all figured out statistically speaking. My experience with those that have strong math backgrounds is that they recognize the inherent problems of any statistical analysis or modeling.

One who puts blind trust in statistics is just as foolish as the fan that he mocks that puts blind trust in his eyes.

[PBR Street Gang]

One who puts blind trust in statistics is just as foolish as the fan that he mocks that puts blind trust in his eyes.

Just can't believe those lying eyes now can we? Or should we be believing statistics generated by some subjective schlepp scoring defensive plays?

Here's a better question - "Who has played a better right field in the history of the Baltimore Orioles than Nick Markakis?" Right now any of you guys picking Ichiro over Nick are watching too many stats and not enough baseball games.

[Sports Guy]

Quite frankly I'm having trouble coming up with five Orioles RFs who were real good defensively, so I'm not really sure what that would tell us.

As for your second point. As I said in my previous post I haven't watched enough of Ichiro in the field to say how he compares to Markakis. The irony is that were someone to ask me that question I would say that Ichiro is probably the better defensive player - and that "opinion" would be based on his reputation. A reputation created by announcers and baseball writers who are judging their opinion on what they see, and not on the stats. Before you asked the question I couldn't have told you what Ichiro's stats tell us because I hadn't bothered to look.

The other irony is that the Fan's Scouting Report is based on the opinions of fans and is by rule to be based on what their eyes see - and not on the stats. In fact, these are the rules:

I haven't seen the numbers for 2010, but want to guess who the fans had rated number 1 in RF in 2009? Ichiro

Is that because Ichiro's defense is shoved down the throat of the fans all the time?

[El Gordo]

It seems to me the most important aspect of any players defense is his first step. The read he gets as the ball is hit and his jump. Since I can't go to 140 games like some here apparently can, I can't see this because I watch the games on TV. Anyone who watches the games on TV knows the camera doesn't pick up the fielder until he is well into his route to the ball. As Buck said you have to be able to watch off ball to begin to make these kinds of assessment with your eyes. Unless you are watching Ichiro and Nick split screen, and with the camera trained on them all the time, how can you make an adequate assessment of their comaparitive abilities? It has to be more or less subjective.

[Sports Guy]

Could be, particularly in the case of non-Mariners fans. But Mariners fans are pretty savvy and considering some of the folks who were "pushing" for their fans to vote (meaning those at SS Mariner), likely didn't allow reputation or stats influence them.

By the way, Markakis finished third, but if you remove the categories related to throwing he ranked 11th.

BTW, I do think Ichiro is the better defender, at least for what I have seen. He just has more range and every bit the accurate and strong arm Nick has.

I am just saying, Ichiro is always shoved down the throats of fans and they see the GG awards, so most non partial fans will give him the edge because that is what they have been conditioned to do.

[DrungoHazewood]

I struggle with a stat that has Adam Jones and Adam Dunn as better defenders and Bobby Abreu as equal to NM...

For the record it looks like Mark Teixiera is a -6. Does that mean Dunn deserves a Gold Glove over Tex this year?

Maybe we are way underselling Dunn's defense.

Sorry to dredge up a days-old thread, but I had a couple of points.

UZR doesn't say that Adam Dunn is better than Nick. It says that based on 2010 data Adam Dunn has been worth more (compared to an average first baseman) than Nick has (compared to an average right fielder).

That doesn't take into account:

1) The fact that an average RF is a much better, more valuable defensive player than an average 1B.

2) One year UZR (or in this case, 80% of one year) is fairly volatile. Just like a .330 hitter might hit .280 or .370 in any two or three-month period, a fielder may vary from his true talent by quite a bit in a small chunk of time.

Based on time spent in the outfield Nick is something like 20 runs/150 games better than Dunn. By UZR.

Is UZR better than the defensive efficiency stat?

To me, that is the easiest and best defensive stat.

Defensive efficiency is a team stat. It's just a measure of all balls in play that are turned into outs. It can't be divided up into players, not without essentially turning it into one of the higher-level defensive metrics.

DE is good for what it is: it is one of the few basic fielding metrics that doesn't fall into the standard traps of putouts, assists, errors, fielding percentage and the like. It doesn't assume that all teams are equal since all teams must get 27 outs. It doesn't give more credit to teams that have more runners on base (and therefore assume that bad teams are actually a bit better defensively than good teams).

But it does treat all balls in play equally. Which is crazy. A team playing behind Adam Eaton, who gives up line drives on every other pitch, would be treated the same way as a team playing behind George Sherrill and his huge FB rate, or Chien-Ming Wang and his huge GB rate.