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Arrieta vs Matusz


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SG, stuff and velocity aren't necessarily the same thing, but you have to take it into account as one of the main factors in determining 'stuff'. Arrieta's fastball sits 3-5 MPH above Matusz, which is a difference of roughly 15 on the 20-80 scale when accounting for handedness. Arrieta's FB also has a lot more run and sink compared to Matusz's relatively straight fastball. Arrieta features a sharper curveball, whereas Matusz has a more looping CB. Matusz clearly has a better CH, but that's the only pitch you can really grade as plus/plus. Command isn't really a factor when talking strictly about stuff. Matusz is obviously the more polished pitcher, and therefore is more likely to achieve his ceiling, but I really don't think you can say Matusz has better 'stuff' than Arrieta.

Taking away the command aspect of things, there is no doubt Arrieta has the better fastball. But if he can't command it, that only means so much.

Matusz has a better assortment of pitches that are more consistent. That is why I give him the edge.

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Athleticism by a pitcher really only means so much. They both appear to be able to field their position.

Athleticism means more to pitching than just fielding the position. A pitcher's athleticism is really more about the ability to maximize mechanics and repeat a full, efficient delivery.

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Athleticism means more to pitching than just fielding the position. A pitcher's athleticism is really more about the ability to maximize mechanics and repeat a full, efficient delivery.

Well then Matusz is leaps and bounds ahead of Arrieta in that regards....The biggest thing holding Arrieta back are his mechanics.

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Taking away the command aspect of things, there is no doubt Arrieta has the better fastball. But if he can't command it, that only means so much.

Matusz has a better assortment of pitches that are more consistent. That is why I give him the edge.

Of coure, this is correct. But that's not the point you made in the OP. You're OP deals with raw stuff and ceilings. Matusz is clearly the better pitcher as of now, but Arrieta has better raw stuff and a higher ceiling.

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Of coure, this is correct. But that's not the point you made in the OP. You're OP deals with raw stuff and ceilings. Matusz is clearly the better pitcher as of now, but Arrieta has better raw stuff and a higher ceiling.

Yea, I just disagree...i don't see his ceiling being higher...I can maybe agree about the raw stuff but command is too important and because Arrieta is never likely to have the command he needs, I don't see his ceiling being higher.

Its easy to just throw that out there but how realistic is it?

If he has a 10% chance of being better, does that mean he has a higher ceiling?

I just think that is poor logic.

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Well then Matusz is leaps and bounds ahead of Arrieta in that regards....The biggest thing holding Arrieta back are his mechanics.

Again, this is a question of polish vs ceiling. Matusz has good, clean mechanics, but he has had some issues repeating his delivery which has resulted in some starts where he's missing his spots badly. Arrieta has the ability to maximize his mechanics and delivery (though he hasn't yet and may not ever), but he hasn't had as much a problem repeating delivery as he has had with overthrowing. This isn't to say Matusz isn't a good athlete as well, he is. This argument isn't as black and white as the stuff argument, and it's hard to point to specific evidence for support in this area.

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Of coure, this is correct. But that's not the point you made in the OP. You're OP deals with raw stuff and ceilings. Matusz is clearly the better pitcher as of now, but Arrieta has better raw stuff and a higher ceiling.

No, raw stuff doesn't necessarily equal higher ceiling. I'm a firm believer that just like the ability to throw upper 90's can't be taught, to the same extent, the ability to command your pitches can't be taught. Now, some guys will figure it out, and improve a little bit, just like some guys may figure something out to boost their FB by 2-3 MPH, but it is my opinion that a pitcher "is what he is" if you will, and Matusz's repitoire and ability to command his pitches is what gives him a higher ceiling than Arrieta.

From your perspective, DCab had a higher ceiling than almost anyone who's ever come through this organization. Velocity and movement is only half of a pitcher, and possibly less.

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Yea, I just disagree...i don't see his ceiling being higher...I can maybe agree about the raw stuff but command is too important and because Arrieta is never likely to have the command he needs, I don't see his ceiling being higher.

Its easy to just throw that out there but how realistic is it?

If he has a 10% chance of being better, does that mean he has a higher ceiling?

I just think that is poor logic.

Yes, that's the definition of ceiling (I don't mean to come off as an a**hole, I swear). You're looking at this from a likely outcome standpoint. Arrieta is far less likely to reach his ceiling than Matusz, and Matusz will probably end up being a better, more consistent pitcher. But if both pitchers reach their absolute ceilings, Arrieta will be the better pitcher.

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It is more than that. I could be wrong as I haven't looked it up but from watching the games I believe that Matusz is more prone to giving up back breaking homers than Arrieta. I also think that Arrieta is more athletic and stronger with much more physical stamina than Matusz who appears soft to me. (Hunter I believe was commenting last night on how impressed Kranitz was with the athleticism of Arrieta).

From watching them both I believe Arrieta has one thing going for him that Matusz doesn't (besides velocity) and that is even when he doesn't have his best command he can still get hitters out and keep his team in the game (although last nite he didn't) whereas Matusz when his command is off generally gets hammered and I mean pounded! I haven't seen that happen to Arrieta nearly as often.

So I believe your general take or assumption that people like Arrieta better simply because he throws harder is not correct. At least in my case it isn't.

This Matusz being soft talk was primarily generated as an explanation for a string of bad outings by Matusz. In his last two games Matusz has pitched eight and seven innings respectively while only giving up one total ER. I sure didn't see much evidence of Matusz being "soft" in these starts.

Matusz has averaged 5.54 innings per start. Arrieta has averaged 5.53 innings per start. Matusz has a lower ERA. Arrieta has given up 5 or more runs in 5 of his 15 starts. Matusz has give up 5 or more runs in 7 out of 34 starts. The only reason that you haven't seen Arreita get his brains beat out as much is because Matusz has pitched almost twice as many innings at the ML level this year, it's certainly not because Matusz has been more prone to bad games.

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Yes, that's the definition of ceiling (I don't mean to come off as an a**hole, I swear). You're looking at this from a likely outcome standpoint. Arrieta is far less likely to reach his ceiling than Matusz, and Matusz has will probably end up being a better, more consistent pitcher. But if both pitchers reach their absolute ceilings, Arrieta will be the better pitcher.

Ceiling is based on ability as a whole. Ability is made up of more than "stuff."

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Yes, that's the definition of ceiling (I don't mean to come off as an a**hole, I swear). You're looking at this from a likely outcome standpoint. Arrieta is far less likely to reach his ceiling than Matusz, and Matusz has will probably end up being a better, more consistent pitcher. But if both pitchers reach their absolute ceilings, Arrieta will be the better pitcher.

Yea, I just don't agree...That's fine...I see nothing from Arrieta that makes me think his ceiling is higher...Just because he throws harder doesn't do it for me.

I think the idea of "the stars, galaxies, cosmos, etc.." need to align perfectly and he will be better is just far fetched and a worthless statement to make.

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Ceiling is based on ability as a whole. Ability is made up of more than "stuff."
True, but there is usually a lot more projectability put forward about a guy's ability to start controlling / commanding his pure stuff than there is about a guy with better control improving his pure stuff.
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No, raw stuff doesn't necessarily equal higher ceiling. I'm a firm believer that just like the ability to throw upper 90's can't be taught, to the same extent, the ability to command your pitches can't be taught. Now, some guys will figure it out, and improve a little bit, just like some guys may figure something out to boost their FB by 2-3 MPH, but it is my opinion that a pitcher "is what he is" if you will, and Matusz's repitoire and ability to command his pitches is what gives him a higher ceiling than Arrieta.

From your perspective, DCab had a higher ceiling than almost anyone who's ever come through this organization. Velocity and movement is only half of a pitcher, and possibly less.

Some guys will never have great command, you're right, but command can be taught to a much, much larger extent than velocity. And DCab did have an huge ceiling, you have to remember that. Why else do you think a guy that struggled as much as he did was given the amount of opportunities he got?

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True, but there is usually a lot more projectability put forward about a guy's ability to start controlling / commanding his pure stuff than there is about a guy with better control improving his pure stuff.

Exactly. These numbers aren't correct, but just for the sake of an example, ceiling could be 50% stuff, 25% command, 15% endurance or durability, and 10% poise. Again, those numbers are just examples to get an idea, and each scout/organization will have a slightly different emphasis on each attribute, but the point remains that the main component to ceiling is raw stuff.

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