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Arrieta vs Matusz


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This year, from what I have seen, yes. I have seen plus curveballs, but the changeup from him this year hasn't been plus IMO.

Just out of curiosity, what pitch grades have I been optimistic about? Jake Arrieta has a plus fastball and plus slider which is backed by scouting reports though at times the slider is inconsistent. The curveball is a pitch he has tightened up this year and to me its plus. In actuality, to me it looks better than the slider at times even. Brian Matusz, has an average FB, curveball was plus previously according to reports, and IMO this year is the only pitch that looks as good as it did last year(right now). The changeup from what I have seen wasn't plus......

You're ratings:

Matusz 2010: AVG FB, +CU, slightly above AVG changeup.

Arrieta 2010: +FB, +CU, +SL, below AVG CH(though he does throw some solid changesup every now and again)

Mine:

Matusz: Average FB, above average CB, Plus CH

Arrieta: Plus FB, above average SL, average CB, below average CH

I guess I just think you're being a bit liberal with pluses. My problem with Arrieta is he flashes plus offerings, but not often or consistently enough for me to grade them as such.

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This year, from what I have seen, yes. I have seen plus curveballs, but the changeup from him this year hasn't been plus IMO.

Just out of curiosity, what pitch grades have I been optimistic about? Jake Arrieta has a plus fastball and plus slider which is backed by scouting reports though at times the slider is inconsistent. The curveball is a pitch he has tightened up this year and to me its plus. In actuality, to me it looks better than the slider at times even. Brian Matusz, has an average FB, curveball was plus previously according to reports, and IMO this year is the only pitch that looks as good as it did last year(right now). The changeup from what I have seen wasn't plus......

Other way around...

When he was being scouted before people say he "has" a plus so and so pitch really mean to say "this should end up as plus in the majors" most of the time.

His change was pretty much already a plus pitch, it was way ahead of competition, and the curve was close but wasn't quite there yet. For as many people you find that say he "had" 2 plus pitches, you'll find just as many that say he had plus command and a couple above average pitches. Pitch rating on a scale like that is subjective, just cause you say it's plus doesn't mean someone else will agree with you, and there is no metric to verify either way.

And for the record, you do tend to throw around the "plus" label an awful lot, true plus pitches are a little more few and far between than you think, and most prospects don't have one.

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You're ratings:

Matusz 2010: AVG FB, +CU, slightly above AVG changeup.

Arrieta 2010: +FB, +CU, +SL, below AVG CH(though he does throw some solid changesup every now and again)

Mine:

Matusz: Average FB, above average CB, Plus CH

Arrieta: Plus FB, above average SL, average CB, below average CH

I guess I just think you're being a bit liberal with pluses. My problem with Arrieta is he flashes plus offerings, but not often or consistently enough for me to grade them as such.

Those actually sound pretty close to me.

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Other way around...

When he was being scouted before people say he "has" a plus so and so pitch really mean to say "this should end up as plus in the majors" most of the time.

His change was pretty much already a plus pitch, it was way ahead of competition, and the curve was close but wasn't quite there yet. For as many people you find that say he "had" 2 plus pitches, you'll find just as many that say he had plus command and a couple above average pitches. Pitch rating on a scale like that is subjective, just cause you say it's plus doesn't mean someone else will agree with you, and there is no metric to verify either way.

And for the record, you do tend to throw around the "plus" label an awful lot, true plus pitches are a little more few and far between than you think, and most prospects don't have one.

Well said bro, that's pretty concise and accurate.

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You're ratings:

Matusz 2010: AVG FB, +CU, slightly above AVG changeup.

Arrieta 2010: +FB, +CU, +SL, below AVG CH(though he does throw some solid changesup every now and again)

Mine:

Matusz: Average FB, above average CB, Plus CH

Arrieta: Plus FB, above average SL, average CB, below average CH

I guess I just think you're being a bit liberal with pluses. My problem with Arrieta is he flashes plus offerings, but not often or consistently enough for me to grade them as such.

Now I'm confused. Seems like you're pointing out a difference between "above average" and "plus." Does it go, in increasing order,

average ... above average ... plus ... plus plus?

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Now I'm confused. Seems like you're pointing out a difference between "above average" and "plus." Does it go, in increasing order,

average ... above average ... plus ... plus plus?

...and below average, but most of the time if a pitch is that bad they will stop throwing it.

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You really don't get it do you? This entire thread different folks have engaged you and pointed out that it isn't just the fact that Arrieta "throws harder" that separates his stuff and potential from Matusz. Arrieta's fastballs have a lot more movement than Matusz and one of them (two seamer?) he throws as an offspeed pitch and it bites down almost like a sinker. He has made some good hitters look bad with that pitch.

I also disagree with Tony that Arrieta's curve ball is inferior to Matusz. When Arrieta has a good one it is much more "Bedard-like" in its break and velocity whereas Matusz has one that isn't thrown that hard and doesn't break nearly as much and is in fact quite a dangerous pitch if he leaves it over the middle of the plate. He has given up some monster shot homers when he hangs one. I haven't seen hitters doing much with Arrieta's curve but he also doesn't throw it as much and his command is a lot worse with it than Matusz. However, when he is throwing it well it is superior to Matusz throwing his well.

So IMO Arrieta has three pitches better than Matusz. Both his four and two seam fastball and his curve. Matusz has a much better change and slider and that is it. So from my perspective Arrieta's stuff is clearly superior but Matusz has better command (most of the time). Rick Dempsey who has caught a lot of major league pitching agrees with those of us who think's Arrieta has the most potential to become an ace. He has said it numerous times. Whether you care for Dempsey or not he undoubtly knows more about a pitcher's stuff than any of us here.

Dempsey also said Bergesen was a top 10 pitcher in baseball...Do you think that is true?

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At worst, Arrieta will become a mid rotation innings eater for the O's. I'd be very surprised to see him wind up as the closer after seeing him pitch this year. He's come along a little slowly, but he's imrpoved every year. No reason to think he's done improving either. He didn't look so hot at Norfolk last year, then came back this year and dominated. I expect a much more consistent and better Arrieta next year. As for stuff, I still think Arrieta's raw stuff is better than Matusz's.

Would you agree that you saw some statisical stuff with Arrieta last year, in AAA, that made you think he should/would improve?

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At worst, Arrieta will become a mid rotation innings eater for the O's. I'd be very surprised to see him wind up as the closer after seeing him pitch this year. He's come along a little slowly, but he's imrpoved every year. No reason to think he's done improving either. He didn't look so hot at Norfolk last year, then came back this year and dominated. I expect a much more consistent and better Arrieta next year. As for stuff, I still think Arrieta's raw stuff is better than Matusz's.

I think that's kind of why when people made the suggestion that he could move to CL, the comparison was made to Papelbon, he also had amazing tools as a SP and didn't HAVE to move. The move was made at the time because their rotation was pretty stacked and there were more SP on the way, with a hole at CL, so it was a good cheap move at the time, and then he took to it like a fish to water so they looked really smart.

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I'm confident Arrieta could be a very good closer if we wanted to move him to the pen. He has shown enough as a starter to warrant keeping him there in 2011. I agree with RZNJ's point about how Arrieta improved at AAA from 2009 to 2010!, and think we'll see similar improvement from Arrieta in 2011.

I'm also expecting Matusz to improve in 2011.

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Dempsey also said Bergesen was a top 10 pitcher in baseball...Do you think that is true?

When he is on like he was last night he certainly could be but to answer your question in general terms it would be no, I don't think that is true. Nonetheless it doesn't automatically mean you should discount everything Dempsey believes including his take on Arrieta.

Right now generally Matusz has better command than Arrieta which makes him a better pitcher. I concede that. With that being said if they both have good or equal command in pitching a game I would take Arrieta every time over Matusz as his stuff is simply better and its not just velocity it is movement as well.

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When he is on like he was last night he certainly could be but to answer your question in general terms it would be no, I don't think that is true. Nonetheless it doesn't automatically mean you should discount everything Dempsey believes including his take on Arrieta.

Right now generally Matusz has better command than Arrieta which makes him a better pitcher. I concede that. With that being said if they both have good or equal command in pitching a game I would take Arrieta every time over Matusz as his stuff is simply better and its not just velocity it is movement as well.

I discount what Dempsey says because he is clueless.

Arrieta has a better fastball...but the secondary pitches are on the side of Matusz.

Arrieta would be the more dominant closer IMO.

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I did want to weigh in on one thing -- whether command can be learned at a relatively late age. A guy who comes to mind is Curt Schilling. He wasn't a great command guy in the minors or in his early years in the majors. He walked 39 batters in 75 innings his last year with the Orioles, at age 24. At that point, his career BB/9 was 4.4. By the end of his career, his career BB/9 was 2.0. So, it's definitely possible, you just don't see it all the time.

I believe he pitched for the Astros at age 24, but it's a moot point. While I don't disagree that it's possible, and yes Schilling might have improved his command drastically, I don't think looking at only BB/9 for the first two full seasons of a career that was roughly 20 years really proves much. While it is a signficant part of it, I would like to caution on thinking command = purely BB rate. This is best exemplified by Jeremy Guthrie's 2009 season, where his BB/9 was only 2.7 but his HR/9 was 1.6 and he led the league in HR allowed, because he couldn't command his FB and left it up in the zone all the time.

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When he is on like he was last night he certainly could be but to answer your question in general terms it would be no, I don't think that is true. Nonetheless it doesn't automatically mean you should discount everything Dempsey believes including his take on Arrieta.

Right now generally Matusz has better command than Arrieta which makes him a better pitcher. I concede that. With that being said if they both have good or equal command in pitching a game I would take Arrieta every time over Matusz as his stuff is simply better and its not just velocity it is movement as well.

So you are saying that you are a "radar gun scout". They are just guys that prefer velocity over everything else, the same guys that sign D. Cabrera and R. Liz. The other side of the coin are guys that like to find refined secondaries and command, I tend to lean towards that because you can't teach velocity, you have it or you don't, but I like guys who know how to pitch and can set you up with various pitches. Just a preference thing though, you see it all the time in baseball, the guy that likes Matzek over Turner, or Matusz over Crow.

And Jake would make a better closer because you want a guy with good velocity back there, they only need two pitches, but when you can dial them up it helps a lot. A guy like Tillman could make a great closer in that sense because command issues are mitigated a bit. You don't have to try to nibble and stay around the zone if you can throw it over the plate at 94-97mph (when pitching an inning at a time you can throw harder than you normally would) and then drop that curve of his to go with it.

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From watching them both I believe Arrieta has one thing going for him that Matusz doesn't (besides velocity) and that is even when he doesn't have his best command he can still get hitters out and keep his team in the game (although last nite he didn't) whereas Matusz when his command is off generally gets hammered and I mean pounded! I haven't seen that happen to Arrieta nearly as often.

By my count, Arietta has made 15 starts, 8 of which were good to excellent, 7 of which were poor. In his 7 poor starts he has allowed 32 ER in 31 IP.

Matusz has made 26 starts, 18 of which I rate good to excellent, one of which I rate mediocre, 7 of which I rate poor. In his 7 poor starts, Matusz has allowed 45 ER in 29.1 IP.

So, you are correct that when Matusz has a bad day, he does worse than Arrieta on his bad days. But Matusz has had only 7 bad outings in 26; Arrieta has had 7 bad outings in 15.

Matusz's ERA in his 19 mediocre to excellent outings is 2.49 and he averages 6.41 IP/start; Arrieta's ERA in his 8 good to excellent outings is 2.60 and he averages 6.50 IP per start. So, they're equally good when they're good, Matusz is worse when they're bad, but Matusz is good a higher percentage of the time.

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