Townsend or Mahoney?

[Ruzious]

Townsend is starting to get separation as the superior prospect, imo. Frederick's his 3rd league this year, and he's showing nice consistency - getting an extra base hit in 6 of his last 7 games. Between the 3 leagues and 190 plate appearances, he's hitting .322/.389/.557/.946. If he starts next season at Bowie (Is that overly optimistic?), he'll be 22 years old there (23 in May) and could be on a nice track to the majors. He's basically hit everywhere he's been, and Mahoney hasn't until this roller coaster season.

[Stotle]

I'd like to see power showing at the upper-levels before getting excited about Townsend. I don't think I'd have him or Mahoney in the Top 10 system prospects and have a hard time picturing either as ML regulars at this point.

[Slade-OH]

I'd like to see power showing at the upper-levels before getting excited about Townsend. I don't think I'd have him or Mahoney in the Top 10 system prospects and have a hard time picturing either as ML regulars at this point.

I agree, I don't think either are reasons we shouldn't be persuing a legitimate bat at 1B this winter or next year. I could be wrong though depending on how they do next year.

[ThisIsOurHouse]

Well they both have been performing very well this year and its nice being able to have both of them in our back pocket. We shouldn't bank on them being the future 1B of this ball club but it surely doesn't hurt if they both continue to progress through the minors and continue to hit. If thats the case then we can either package one or both of them with others to get a big time bat or use them when they reach the majors.

[Three Run Homer]

I agree, I don't think either are reasons we shouldn't be persuing a legitimate bat at 1B this winter or next year. I could be wrong though depending on how they do next year.

I happen to think that Townsend and Mahoney both have a decent shot at being major league regulars...but I'd still pursue a legitimate proven 1B bat this offseason. There's no such thing as too much talent.

[Ruzious]

I agree, I don't think either are reasons we shouldn't be persuing a legitimate bat at 1B this winter or next year. I could be wrong though depending on how they do next year.

Oh yeah, you certainly don't avoid getting a big-time 1Bman just because you like a prospect. I think you pretty much have to have a Freddie Freeman type prospect for that - a top prospect who's tearing up AAA and has already proven himself at lower levels.

[Ruzious]

I'd like to see power showing at the upper-levels before getting excited about Townsend. I don't think I'd have him or Mahoney in the Top 10 system prospects and have a hard time picturing either as ML regulars at this point.

I'm surprised you'd question Townsend's power. He had ridiculous power (24 homers in 212 at bats with an .858 slugging percentage) at Florida International and is showing good power in the minors (except for Aberdeen last year). I'd assume as long as he makes contact, power's the last concern with him, so his ability to make contact in the minors is what I'd look at. Certainly, he does need a lot more minor league at bats before assuming he'll be a ML regular, but I am somewhat excited about him as a prospect.

[Stotle]

I'm surprised you'd question Townsend's power. He had ridiculous power (24 homers in 212 at bats with an .858 slugging percentage) at Florida International and is showing good power in the minors (except for Aberdeen last year). I'd assume as long as he makes contact, power's the last concern with him, so his ability to make contact in the minors is what I'd look at. Certainly, he does need a lot more minor league at bats before assuming he'll be a ML regular, but I am somewhat excited about him as a prospect.

Well, I tend to think raw number of college homeruns is down the list of things I look at while projecting pro power with wood and placing a grade on a players power potential as a pro.

A.J. Kirby-Jones (Tennessee Tech) was 2nd in HR (26), HR/game (.46) and SLG (.859) among all Division I players. 58 BB, 53 SO in around 275 plate appearances. He was selected in the 9th Round (OAK) and received $75,000. Evaluating a college player can't be reduced to ticking-off stats -- Townsend had some decent enough hitting tools out of college, but his swing plane wasn't great (to me -- and others I've spoken with) and some questioned bat speed and ability to square better pitches (I didn't see enough of him to have strong feelings on that).

[Singleton]

I'd like to see power showing at the upper-levels before getting excited about Townsend. I don't think I'd have him or Mahoney in the Top 10 system prospects and have a hard time picturing either as ML regulars at this point.

Wow. My surprise is only that in a relatively weak system neither of these guys can place in the top 10. I'm either less optimistic about others in our system or slightly more optimistic about the 2 in question.

[Stotle]

Wow. My surprise is only that in a relatively weak system neither of these guys can place in the top 10. I'm either less optimistic about others in our system or slightly more optimistic about the 2 in question.

Keep in mind I probably project out a little farther than most and am slow to change my opinion on someone I like or am less high on over the course of a season (let alone a one or two month span). For example, I had Hoes as the 9th best player in the O's system two winters ago, and at #11 this off-season. I expect to have him in the Top 10 this off-season. You'll probably see a lot more fluctuation in rankings by those that are a bit more reactionary (relying more heavily on stats or opinions of other evaluators), which is neither a good or a bad thing -- it's just not my bag.

My top 20 entering the year was:

Matusz

Arrieta

Bell

Erbe

Britton

Mickolio

Hobgood

Snyder

Berry

Joseph

Hoes

Bundy

Waring

Welty

Angle

Avery

Drake

Spoone

Ohlman

Givens

Taking away those that will no longer be eligible, that would leave me with:

Erbe

Britton

Mickolio

Hobgood

Snyder

Berry

Joseph

Hoes

Bundy

Waring

Welty

Angle

Avery

Drake

Spoone

Ohlman

Givens

There will be some shifts here, but just eyeballing it I can't see either 1B beating out ten of these players, let alone when adding one or two from the 2010 draft class.

[SurhoffRules]

Taking away those that will no longer be eligible, that would leave me with:

Erbe

Britton

Mickolio

Hobgood

Snyder

Berry

Joseph

Hoes

Bundy

Waring

Welty

Angle

Avery

Drake

Spoone

Ohlman

Givens

There will be some shifts here, but just eyeballing it I can't see either 1B beating out ten of these players, let alone when adding one or two from the 2010 draft class.

Just curious, are you not particularly high on Beal? I know his FB lacks a bit of velocity.

[Stotle]

Just curious, are you not particularly high on Beal? I know his FB lacks a bit of velocity.

He has yet to show any real ability to miss bats and needs to develop some pitch with which to attack lefties. Still a young kid with time to improve. Don't love him right now; hope he does well and proves me very wrong.

[Ruzious]

Keep in mind I probably project out a little farther than most and am slow to change my opinion on someone I like or am less high on over the course of a season (let alone a one or two month span). For example, I had Hoes as the 9th best player in the O's system two winters ago, and at #11 this off-season. I expect to have him in the Top 10 this off-season. You'll probably see a lot more fluctuation in rankings by those that are a bit more reactionary (relying more heavily on stats or opinions of other evaluators), which is neither a good or a bad thing -- it's just not my bag.

My top 20 entering the year was:

Matusz

Arrieta

Bell

Erbe

Britton

Mickolio

Hobgood

Snyder

Berry

Joseph

Hoes

Bundy

Waring

Welty

Angle

Avery

Drake

Spoone

Ohlman

Givens

Taking away those that will no longer be eligible, that would leave me with:

Erbe

Britton

Mickolio

Hobgood

Snyder

Berry

Joseph

Hoes

Bundy

Waring

Welty

Angle

Avery

Drake

Spoone

Ohlman

Givens

There will be some shifts here, but just eyeballing it I can't see either 1B beating out ten of these players, let alone when adding one or two from the 2010 draft class.

I see a couple of players much differently than you do. You have Waring at 10 now. I don't see him as even a top 20 prospect. He's always struck out too much, and he's always been a year or 2 older than the level a prospect should be at. He's a 24/25 year old AA player.

And Avery all the way down at 13 - he may never make the majors, but his upside seems to me at least much higher than several of the players listed ahead of him - players that - even if they reach their potential - won't be very good.

[QBsILLEST1]

I'd like to see power showing at the upper-levels before getting excited about Townsend. I don't think I'd have him or Mahoney in the Top 10 system prospects and have a hard time picturing either as ML regulars at this point.

Its hard to argue with your opinions because you are so much more knowledgeable on the scouting tip than I am, but I think an argument could be made that Townsend's lack of power could possibly have something to do with the injuries. Hamstring injuries can certainly affect power, and I also believe he had a wrist injury last year which would definitely effect power. It seems as the year has gone on(and as he healed a bit more), his power has begun to emerge. Of course we won't know until we get a full year from him w/o injury.

Your opinion on Beal I agree with. His secondaries are OK, I believe its the curve thats better than the change, but its beginning to get to the point where you have to wonder if any extra velo is still left in the tank. He apparently has added a couple MPH, but nothing incredible. That is why I like Wirsch more, his secondaries project very nicely, so even if his FB velocity never winds up in the low 90's as hoped, he still has some good secondary offerings to hang his hat on. Right now, we have Matusz throwing about as hard as Wirsch throws and Matusz has 2 above average to plus secondaries. Wirsch projects to also have 2 above average to plus secondaries. Command will be key as will his ability to develop a 4th pitch and also if he fills into his frame some more. But Beal w/o anymore velocity is nothing more than a back ender, maybe Bergesen at best....

[Stotle]

I see a couple of players much differently than you do. You have Waring at 10 now. I don't see him as even a top 20 prospect. He's always struck out too much, and he's always been a year or 2 older than the level a prospect should be at. He's a 24/25 year old AA player.

And Avery all the way down at 13 - he may never make the majors, but his upside seems to me at least much higher than several of the players listed ahead of him - players that - even if they reach their potential - won't be very good.

Right -- the order isn't the exact same now. That was just dropping the ineligible players and keeping everything else the same. I haven't lined everyone up yet, but my best guess is that there will not be tons of movement, but some will go up some and some will go down some. A couple might drop or rise a large amount, but my guess is that there is much less movement from player to player on my lists then you generally see on Top 10/20/30 lists.