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Showalter and trades this offseason


JTrea81

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Just connect the dots. It's been said MacPhail did not want Showalter as manager, because Buck wanted control over player personnel.

Buck is now manager and has seemingly more control over player personnel and baseball operations in general than any other manager since Angelos has been owner.

It's also been said about MacPhail in both in Chicago and Baltimore that he likes to have total control. So one would think there would be some conflict there and he wouldn't just give up power willingly unless he was forced to by Angelos.

Just because MacPhail seems to be toeing the company line doesn't mean that he's fully on board with what has taken place. He's a professional and he's acting like one, though it wouldn't shock me to see him resign at season's end because Buck is going to want to do things that AM isn't going to want to do like trading young talent for established talent.

The bulk of the evidence that there's a coming apocalypse between MacPhail and Showalter seems to be your desperate need for one.

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Jtrea..if Buck had that trade to do again, do you think he would make it?

Do you think he looks back and says that was a smart deal?

No I don't but Prince Fielder and Adrian Gonzalez are not Adam Eaton.

The whole thing is that he's willing to take a risk even if it has a chance of blowing up.

And that's what we are going to have to do to get to the next level.

This team has to make that leap. We can't continue to be conservative and expect to succeed. All we are doing is guaranteeing that we will not make the playoffs for every conservative offseason that we have.

The O's kicked the tires on Gonzalez supposedly last offseason but I'm sure MacPhail didn't want to pay the price it would have taken to land him because it would have been too much of a risk for him.

I think Buck will want to pay that price if he's available again this offseason regardless of what we might give up may become because he knows we need that type of player and players to win.

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There are two aspects to trades: strategy and talent evaluation. You can make a trade that makes strategic sense if you are correct in your talent evaluation, that turns out terribly if your evaluation is wrong.

The classic case for the O's, of course, was Finley, Schilling and Harnisch for Glenn Davis. There was some strategic logic to that trade at the time (O's desperately needed a power bat), but it turned out horribly because Davis was damaged goods and two of the players traded away turned into excellent players (and the third one wasn't bad either).

So, I don't mind the concept of trading some talented but unproven players for proven talent. But if your assessment is screwed up, as Buck's was when he jettisoned Gonzalez, then that's a big problem. So to me, you have to look at proposed deals on their specific merits, not on a general principle like "I'd rather have a proven player than three unproven ones."

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I think our core has proven that it can win. why trade a big part of that core away now, when we can fill the holes that remain with FA signings? I seriously don't understand how trading away promising young pitching for ONE power bat could make this team more likely to compete. i know it's old: good pitching beats good hitting every time! i think we're only pieces away. i'm not saying we're really as good as we've been in august, but we're certainly a lot closer to augsut than april, judging by our talent IMO.

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I think our core has proven that it can win. why trade a big part of that core away now, when we can fill the holes that remain with FA signings? I seriously don't understand how trading away promising young pitching for ONE power bat could make this team more likely to compete. i know it's old: good pitching beats good hitting every time! i think we're only pieces away. i'm not saying we're really as good as we've been in august, but we're certainly a lot closer to augsut than april, judging by our talent IMO.

Nobody is saying one power bat will do it. But the best options at 1B that will likely be available this offseason will be via trade not FA and that's the same for SS.

And that is going to mean trading young unproven talent to get the type of talent you need to upgrade those positions.

We have enough question marks with Markakis, Wieters and Jones who haven't proven yet that they can be the middle of the order hitters this team needs.

Markakis is more of a #2 hitter. Jones is more of a #7 right now and Wieters would bat 9th on most teams.

That isn't going to get it done offensively. We will need to trade for talent and sign FAs to get the offense we need to win as many games as we can next season and more importantly to get us to the point where we are only 1 player away from the playoffs.

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What's wrong with waiting a year and going after one of them when they become FA's? You don't have to trade away any of your young talent, and you have as much, if not better chance to sign them as a FA as to extend them.

Nothing. And that's why I foresee Derrek Lee in the O's plans for 2011. I just hope he works out better than Atkins.

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Nobody is saying one power bat will do it. But the best options at 1B that will likely be available this offseason will be via trade not FA and that's the same for SS.

And that is going to mean trading young unproven talent to get the type of talent you need to upgrade those positions.

We have enough question marks with Markakis, Wieters and Jones who haven't proven yet that they can be the middle of the order hitters this team needs.

Markakis is more of a #2 hitter. Jones is more of a #7 right now and Wieters would bat 9th on most teams.

That isn't going to get it done offensively. We will need to trade for talent and sign FAs to get the offense we need to win as many games as we can next season and more importantly to get us to the point where we are only 1 player away from the playoffs.

It's not all about next year. I agree with you what measures the team would have to take to win next year; it would be drastic. However, if you wait a season then:

Given projections:

Adam Jones is probably a #5 hitter going into 2012

Matt Wieters is a 4-6 hitter

You have figured out if Josh Bell is the answer, and likely Snyder as well

Fielder, Gonzalez, and Cuddyer are available 1B

Bartlett, Furcal, Rollins, and Scutaro are likely available SS

Uggla, Bautista are available at 3B

And you are much more likely to know what your pitching is going to look like. Whereas next year I think Arrieta and Tillman are still big question marks. I would expect both of them to have similar years to Matusz. Ok beginning, difficult middle, and signs of being solid major league pitchers at the end.

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If Buck is going to push for something this stupid a second time, I wish we would get rid of him now.

You still would rather sign the OTHER petition?

The rub is - if the trade fails... It's AM's fault. If it works out well... it's BS' fault. It's the perfect world!!

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Nobody is saying one power bat will do it. But the best options at 1B that will likely be available this offseason will be via trade not FA and that's the same for SS.

And that is going to mean trading young unproven talent to get the type of talent you need to upgrade those positions.

Ignoring all the rest of the facets of this discussion, I want to focus on this one point in particular. Let's assume you are right on this point. I'd bet that most people would say you are, and I would agree also. So let's say the Orioles best option for upgrading at first base for 2011 and beyond is to make a trade, and they are going to look at who might be available on the market this offseason.

The name Adrian Gonzalez keeps being tossed about. Why is that? Well, historically there was this thought that San Diego was a bad team that really had only a couple of marketable commodities, and the quickest way to rebuild would be to trade those commodities for multiple young players. This was the approach MacPhail took in dealing away Bedard and Tejada. Trade two established vets, get back ten pieces and parts of varying degrees of experience and potential. In 2009 the Padres didn't look so good so moving Gonzalez seemed like a reasonable thing to do.

But have you looked at the standings lately? The Padres are leading the NL. Why on earth would they be looking to trade away their cleanup hitter at this time? Why not go after Youkilis from the Red Sox or Teixeira from the Yankees? Just forget about getting Gonzalez in a trade this offseason. It's not happening.

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What's wrong with waiting a year and going after one of them when they become FA's? You don't have to trade away any of your young talent, and you have as much, if not better chance to sign them as a FA as to extend them.

There's no guarantee that you'll get either one of them as a FA, just look at Teixeira who we thought we could get as a FA. At least by playing in Baltimore for a season, the Orioles likely shoot to #1 on their list of preferred places to play and you have a whole year to extend them as well as a 15 day exclusive window from when they file for FA after the season to try to sign them LT.

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But have you looked at the standings lately? The Padres are leading the NL. Why on earth would they be looking to trade away their cleanup hitter at this time? Why not go after Youkilis from the Red Sox or Teixeira from the Yankees? Just forget about getting Gonzalez in a trade this offseason. It's not happening.

The Padres likely won't be able to afford an extension for him. And they can get more than two draft picks back for him in a trade.

And they are more likely to get more for him this offseason than they would by waiting until the trade deadline.

It makes too much sense to deal him after the season.

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You still would rather sign the OTHER petition?

The rub is - if the trade fails... It's AM's fault. If it works out well... it's BS' fault. It's the perfect world!!

Yep, you can already see Trea leading towards this. Any personnel move he likes will have resulted because he believes BS has complete control and PA's ear, yet any move he doesn't like will be attributed to AM.

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