The case for Prince Fielder

[JTrea81]

As we know 1B is a giant black hole right now for the Orioles. And 1B has pretty much been a black hole filled with stopgap after stopgap since Raffy left the first time.

The Orioles need more offense from this position by far, and the solutions on the FA market are just not that attractive.

I detailed in another thread why Lee and Pena do not make sense. And Konerko is likely to sign with another team that is more competitive, but he is also 35 and would be a poor LT signing.

So with the lack of talent in FA, that leaves trades, and unlike Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder will most certainly be available this offseason.

Now some would say he's too expensive and we can get another unproven option for cheaper, but that's the the key - they are unproven. The Orioles have enough question marks with their currrent offense, so they don't need to add another.

Why not wait until he's a FA after 2011?

The Orioles need his bat now. Fielder makes your entire lineup better and is the cleanup hitter the Orioles can pencil in everyday. There is no option on the FA market that is as much of a threat in that cleanup spot. And make no mistake, the Orioles need the biggest offensive threat they can get.

Won't he cost too much?

The Brewers didn't have much of a market for Prince at the deadline, and likely won't be able to ask for much considering most teams will see him as a rent-a-player before he hits FA. Look at the trade that Oakland made for Matt Holliday as that will likely be the price for Fielder. A combo of Tillman, Bell could headline a package for instance. Unproven players that still have enough value left. Could they turn into something? Yes, but it's worth the risk to put a proven bat like Fielder's in the lineup, to make sure players like Wieters and Jones have the offensive burden lifted from them as much as possible. Wieters and Jones are also more important and more valuable than Tillman and Bell. They have to take a major step next season and Fielder in the lineup can take some pressure off so they can do that.

Won't he just walk after 2011?

Perhaps, but Baltimore likely is #1 on his list when he does hit FA as players who play for the Orioles usually want to stay. And I don't buy that he can't be extended. Boras clients do not take a discount to extend, but nobody that I can see has offered them a market value deal to extend.

And if in the off chance Fielder does walk after 2011, you'll get two draft picks for him. But since the Orioles would probably be after him in FA anyway, I don't see him walking unless they don't pay the money to keep him. And if you trade for him, you should know what you are getting into to keep him.

What about his down year?

Fielder for his career has hit .267/.415/.466/.881 with RISP so his line of .231/.438/.306/.744 seems like an outlier, and that is primarily what is causing him to have a down year.

Still 30+ HRs and a .890+ OPS is still pretty rare in this game, and Fielder is on place to break 4.0 WAR for the 3rd time in 4 years in a down year, and he's more valuable than Teixeira again for the 2nd straight year.

Let's not forget that he'll also only be 26 next season so he's still got several years of peak production left.

I think the odds are pretty good at OPACY he could break 5.0 WAR.

Is he a Showalter guy?

You would look at his weight and automatically think he's not a hard worker, but that couldn't be farther from the truth. Prince has a chip on his shoulder, because he wants to be better than his dad Cecil, and he's committed to doing so. His fire and competiveness would be quite welcome under Buck IMO.

[SammyBirdland]

Nice post.

Can you imagine if we picked up Sandoval for 3rd Base, Fielder for 1st Base and kept Wiggy as a utility infielder? We could build the heaviest infield of all time.

[Remember The Alomar]

Has a big name Boras client ever not tested the market? I'm actually curious. I'm not sure where I would look that up.

[VAB2110]

He won't sign an extension unless it's well over market value and the Orioles won't do a deal without that extension, especially considering the talent it will take to get him.

[now]

As we know 1B is a giant black hole right now for the Orioles. And 1B has pretty much been a black hole filled with stopgap after stopgap since Raffy left the first time.

...

A combo of Tillman, Bell could headline a package for instance.

Interesting, for sure.

The problem is well stated.

As for the solution (your trade package), I wish you well in negotiations. Referring back to the Bedard trade - Jones, Tillman, Sherrill, Mickolio, Butler - let's for simplicity's sake value those pieces as 5, 3, 2, 1, 0 respectively (total value = 11). So the package of Tillman (3) and Bell/Sherrill (2) comes in at 5; adding another fringe piece (0.5) brings the value (5.5) to half of what we got for Bedard. And this is the basis for landing Fielder? Again, good luck... :boogie:

[Dannyboy]

Has a big name Boras client ever not tested the market? I'm actually curious. I'm not sure where I would look that up.

I believe Carlos Pena did, but i could be mitaken.

[24fps]

House. Of. Cards.

Breathtaking though...

[skanar]

Why not wait until he's a FA after 2011?

The Orioles need his bat now.

Are we planning to win the World Series next year? Or even contend? I don't see any combination of FAs that gets us there. Even signing Dunn, Crawford, and Lee doesn't make us contenders (next year), IMO. So why do the O's need his bat now? Why not take one more season of pain (yes, yes, I know..) and go after the awesome 1B FA class of the 2011-2012 offseason (Gonzalez, Pujols, Fielder)?

[cmcgarvey]

Dude is too fat.

End of story.

I would pass.

[baltfan]

I believe Carlos Pena did, but i could be mitaken.

Andruw Jones went directly to Braves management and cut a deal. So did A-Rod this last time.

[ChaosLex]

Nice post.

Can you imagine if we picked up Sandoval for 3rd Base, Fielder for 1st Base and kept Wiggy as a utility infielder? We could build the heaviest infield of all time.

Give this guy a catcher's mitt.

[Dipper9]

Prince in 3 years...

[FlokaFears]

Trea, lets you and me get this one done.

[JohnD]

He's the only vegetarian with a weight problem. Sorry, as he gets older he's just going to balloon. Pass.

[DrungoHazewood]

We all know it really comes down to this: Is Prince Fielder likely to put the O's in the playoffs and be the key to the Orioles opening up a huge new revenue stream for the one year he's under contract, therefore making up the $15M+ in salary and multiple good young players the Orioles would have to give up?

Two months ago that answer was an absolute, positive, no-possible-doubt NO.

Now it's just highly unlikely. If the O's are a high-70s, low-80s win team right now, you could squint hard enough and pray that the 2007/09 Fielder shows up (against AL East pitching) instead of the guy from the rest of his career, and he might push an 81-win O's team to 87. And an 87-win team occasionally wins 95+, and makes the playoffs.

You also have to consider the cost in players. If Trea is right, and the Brewers would accept Tillman and Bell, both coming off disappointing years, for Fielder, maybe that risk is acceptable. If the cost is much more, you're back to the higher probability that the O's have given up 4, 5, 6 years of one or more good young player(s) for (at best) one six-win year of Prince Fielder at $15M+.

At worst, you've given up 20 or 30 wins and $15M for the 3-4 wins that push the 2011 O's from 74 wins to 78.

So, to sum up, I think the O's are probably about a 10-20% chance of making the playoffs with Fielder and some other reasonable acquisitions and reasonable growth from current players. That's what everyone has to decide for themselves, if that's worth Tillman, Bell, probably more young players, and $15M.