BA Carolina League top 20 Prospects:Avery #12

[jcarm]

Well, the O's finally have their first person on a BA league prospect list. Xavier Avery came in at #12. Surprised that Hoes did not make it though.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/league-top-20-prospects/2010/2610745.html

[brotherlo38]

Not shocked that Hoes didn't make the list. He put up decent numbers but he's a player who still has a ways to go defensively in order to stick at 2B and he doesn't have the bat for 3B.

[JohnD]

We all know not all 20 players on that list are going to make the big leagues. LJ Hoes is going to be a big league hitter.

[Frobby]

Considering that there are only 8 teams in the Carolina League, having one player in the Top 20 isn't a good showing at all. Myrtle Beach has 3, Wilmington has 5, Salem has 3, Kinston has 2, Potomac has 3. For us to have only one is pathetic.

That said, I'm a bit surprised that Hoes and Berry aren't on the list.

[jcarm]

BA obviously did not talk to the same scouts that Tony has talked to regarding Hoes.

[ShaneDawg85]

It's somewhat surprising that Hoes didn't make it, but he did miss some time this season. Hopefully next year he'll recognition in the Eastern League.

[rhall]

It's somewhat surprising that Hoes didn't make it, but he did miss some time this season. Hopefully next year he'll recognition in the Eastern League.

This is important to remember when looking at these top 20 league lists. They take performance into consideration more so than BA's end of year overall lists, and with Hoes missing part of the year (and the month-long-slump attributed to mono) he was facing an up-hill climb to make this list.

And I don't know if this is really another reason or not, but I've always thought/said that Hoes has to put up big numbers to make these lists because his tools aren't as loud. Prolonged success would probably do the trick, too, but he's not there yet either. That doesn't mean I'm a Hoes-Hater. I still like his chances of contributing in the big leagues. This is my opinion of national/league-wide coverage.

[Flosman]

I wonder if some of the lack of guys on lists have to do with; 1. Stockstill being much more agressive with guys. In the past hoes might have spent atleast half of the season with the Shorebirds and likely would have been much more impressive. 2. The general view that the O's do not develop hitters well at all amongst baseball people.

Honestly it does not matter if Hoes is on the list or not reports of Hoes being legit is more encouraging than guys being on various list when scouts are point out that there are major flaws.

[psk3170]

I love BA top 20's and I sympathesize with trying to get 40 good prospects on a 20 person list but that list is one of the worst I have ever seen at BA minus the well deserved praise for all the Royals prospects and Tejada. It is full of 23 year olds and league repeaters. Hoes and Berry were younger and better than most of the guys on that list. Hoes is much better than Oscar Tejada who they project as a super utility guy. Hoover of the Braves has slightly worse figures at 23 years old then Berry at 21 years old. Horrible list. One of the worst I have seen at BA.

[jcarm]

Here is my question and the subsequent answer from the chat about the Carolina League list:

John (Acworth,GA): How close did LJ Hoes and Ryan Berry of Frederick come to making the list? I have been hearing very good reports on Hoes from another web site. Also did big Joe Mahoney or Ronnie Welty merit any mentions? Thanks!

Lacy Lusk: More mentions on Hoes and Welty than the other guys. Hoes took a step forward this year, and Welty has good power and is a plus defender in right field.

[jcarm]

In an answer to another question, the BA guy says that Welty received the most support for the list(other than Avery) than the other Keys. I guess they liked Welty better than Hoes.I like Welty, but I was under the impression that Hoes is a much better prospect. Doesn't Welty strike out too much to be considered a serious prospect right now?

[Stotle]

In an answer to another question, the BA guy says that Welty received the most support for the list(other than Avery) than the other Keys. I guess they liked Welty better than Hoes.I like Welty, but I was under the impression that Hoes is a much better prospect. Doesn't Welty strike out too much to be considered a serious prospect right now?

Some evaluators would disagree with me, but I think Hoes is a safer bet than Welty, with Welty having a bit more upside (though his margin for error is pretty slim given his potential contact issues at the upper-levels). Welty's arm arm and power scream out at you, which is easier for an evaluator to get excited about than a solid average kid across the board.

[rhall]

Some evaluators would disagree with me, but I think Hoes is a safer bet than Welty, with Welty having a bit more upside (though his margin for error is pretty slim given his potential contact issues at the upper-levels). Welty's arm arm and power scream out at you, which is easier for an evaluator to get excited about than a solid average kid across the board.

That's what I was thinking. I think Hoes will be the kind of hitter that you need to watch on a regular basis to appreciate, and even in a small league, the other Carolina League managers might not have seen him enough. And let's be honest, Hoes's end of year numbers don't scream top prospect, which hurt his chances for this list, especially when coupled with solid average, not loud, tools.

[rhall]

I love BA top 20's and I sympathesize with trying to get 40 good prospects on a 20 person list but that list is one of the worst I have ever seen at BA minus the well deserved praise for all the Royals prospects and Tejada. It is full of 23 year olds and league repeaters. Hoes and Berry were younger and better than most of the guys on that list. Hoes is much better than Oscar Tejada who they project as a super utility guy. Hoover of the Braves has slightly worse figures at 23 years old then Berry at 21 years old. Horrible list. One of the worst I have seen at BA.

Actually Hoover & Berry are only 1 year apart.

Hoover DOB = 08/13/1987

Berry DOB = 08/03/1988

IMO, Hoover versus Berry is defensible, too. Hoover started in all of his appearances and has a more durable build. That could point to his remaining as a starter - advantage Hoover. That being said, I've read that some scouts think Hoover could end up as a reliever, so maybe it's even.

But I understand what you're saying and partly agree. I wonder if this will become more common as BA goes through their Top 20 League lists. They do take performance into consideration more than their overall lists so it's not uncommon to have Player 'A' rank above Player 'B' and then have them switched up in the overall composite rankings.

[QBsILLEST1]

Some evaluators would disagree with me, but I think Hoes is a safer bet than Welty, with Welty having a bit more upside (though his margin for error is pretty slim given his potential contact issues at the upper-levels). Welty's arm arm and power scream out at you, which is easier for an evaluator to get excited about than a solid average kid across the board.

Yes, I guess its the polish that has always had me excited. Way back in the GCL, when he posted those ridiculous OBP numbers, I really just fell in love with that skill of his.

I know 1 thing, and maybe I am in the minority here, but I take Hoes over Avery......