Adding some patience

[JTrea81]

Okay. So either Lee was in decline at age 32 and you were aware of it, or you acknowledge there is a good chance you'll be throwing away a little over $40 million over Werth's final two years and you're fine with it because he should (if healthy) perform pretty well over the first three years.

No concerns with wear-n-tear on the knees. No consideration of someone like Berkman who saw a steep drop-off at age 34 (this year).

I'll roll the dice and say there is a fair chance your 5/90 results in a good first two years, and okay third year a bad fourth and a really bad fifth (all as compared to the price tag). So, around $16 million his first year and $17 million his second year where he'll need to be a 4 WAR player to be worth it. Then, a good chance at declining performance for $19-20 million over the next three years.

Sign me up!

Well it all depends on how badly you want to upgrade LF and the middle of the order. The Orioles are going to have to bite the bullet somewhere. Bargain signings for players past their prime that you hope will overachieve aren't going to get them the talent they need.

FA is slim pickings. You either have to overpay or trade away talent if you want to win now.

Crawford isn't realistic. Werth is as long as we are the highest bidder.

After those two, it's not worth pursuing anybody else for LF out there.

[Stotle]

It's all about the age difference. Werth has shown no signs of slowing down.

I think he's got 3 good years in him left. 32-34. He's put up close to three 5.0 WAR seasons in a row so it stands to reason he has one or two more of those left.

32- 5.0

33- 5.0

34 -4.0

35 -3.0

36 -2.0

You pay more for younger players as they are more productive.

That's a mighty convenient decline slope, there. Hopefully he doesn't go

Berkman

Age 32 - 6.7 WAR

Age 33 - 3.1 WAR

Age 34 - 1.4 WAR

Or Vlad

Age 32 - 5.5 WAR

Age 33 - 2.3 WAR

Age 34 - 0.3 WAR

Age 35 - 2.1 WAR

Essentially, you think Worth is more like Manny (perhaps the best right-handed hitting OF in baseball in his day)

Age 32 - 5.0

Age 33 - 5.5

Age 34 - 5.4

Age 35 - 2.2

Age 36 - 2.2

[Stotle]

Well it all depends on how badly you want to upgrade LF and the middle of the order. The Orioles are going to have to bite the bullet somewhere. Bargain signings for players past their prime that you hope will overachieve aren't going to get them the talent they need.

FA is slim pickings. You either have to overpay or trade away talent if you want to win now.

Crawford isn't realistic. Werth is as long as we are the highest bidder.

After those two, it's not worth pursuing anybody else for LF out there.

You never HAVE to overpay to the tune of potentially three bad contract years of close to $20 million per.

[JTrea81]

You never HAVE to overpay to the tune of potentially three bad contract years of close to $20 million per.

Maybe, maybe not. The Orioles missed their shot at a better LFer with Holliday.

Now they have to take what's left, trade for a solution, or upgrade elsewhere and hope Pie/Reimold can hold down the job.

With Beltre preferring the WC and with the FA options at 1B looking poor, overpaying for Werth really seems like the only option to get a power bat in the lineup for next year unless you want to trade away prospects and young MLers for Fielder or Gonzalez.

[Stotle]

Maybe, maybe not. The Orioles missed their shot at a better LFer with Holliday.

Now they have to take what's left, trade for a solution, or upgrade elsewhere and hope Pie/Reimold can hold down the job.

With Beltre preferring the WC and with the FA options at 1B looking poor, overpaying for Werth really seems like the only option to get a power bat in the lineup for next year unless you want to trade away prospects and young MLers for Fielder or Gonzalez.

This is simply not true. It may be the only thing you can think of, but it isn't the only option for bringing in a bat (along with trading for Gonzalez/Fielder). Further, assuming it is in fact the only option for a big bat, you don't make the move. You look to make up ground in other areas of the game, including, pitching, defense, baserunning, etc. Whatever makes the most sense when combining areas of need and cost-per-level-of-improvement.

By the way, when I say the "only thing you can think of" that isn't meant to be a slight -- just a statement that many potential moves aren't available to the general public unless they are given insight into player availability, internal discussions, etc.

[Frobby]

Maybe, maybe not. The Orioles missed their shot at a better LFer with Holliday.

Now they have to take what's left, trade for a solution, or upgrade elsewhere and hope Pie/Reimold can hold down the job.

With Beltre preferring the WC and with the FA options at 1B looking poor, overpaying for Werth really seems like the only option to get a power bat in the lineup for next year unless you want to trade away prospects and young MLers for Fielder or Gonzalez.

How much of a power bat is Werth, really? He has hit 30+ HR one time, and he has never had 100 RBI in a season. I do like his patience at the plate, and the fact that he crushes LHP. But I think any team that pays him 5/$90 mm will regret it.

[Sports Guy]

Well it all depends on how badly you want to upgrade LF and the middle of the order. The Orioles are going to have to bite the bullet somewhere. Bargain signings for players past their prime that you hope will overachieve aren't going to get them the talent they need.

FA is slim pickings. You either have to overpay or trade away talent if you want to win now.

Crawford isn't realistic. Werth is as long as we are the highest bidder.

After those two, it's not worth pursuing anybody else for LF out there.

How is it that Werth is realistic but CC isn't? The same teams will be vying for each guy in all likelihood.

[DrungoHazewood]

Maybe, maybe not. The Orioles missed their shot at a better LFer with Holliday.

Yes, they missed their chance to overpay by $50-75M and hamstring the franchise through both the build-up to contention and through the likely contention phase of the rebuild.

Now they have to take what's left, trade for a solution, or upgrade elsewhere and hope Pie/Reimold can hold down the job.

With Beltre preferring the WC and with the FA options at 1B looking poor, overpaying for Werth really seems like the only option to get a power bat in the lineup for next year unless you want to trade away prospects and young MLers for Fielder or Gonzalez.

This is only true when you buy into your amazing idea that you have to have loads of firmly established, top-dollar talent to compete.

If instead you choose to operate simply, and move ahead wanting to upgrade the team by 150 runs, you can attack this on a variety of fronts. You can get 50 runs from internal growth, you can get 30 or 40 runs from Lee or a comparable player (maybe even a young one like Alonso), you could get 20 or 30 or 50 from a new third baseman. You could get a glove to add 10 or 20 runs at third or short. You could really fortify the bullpen and save 30, 40, 50 runs. Nakajima could post, and the O's could gain 30 runs just on his offense over Izturis'.

There are always options. Anyone who tells you differently has an agenda.

[MrOrange82]

I think Stotle's perspective is interesting. Do you think the O's can win in the East without a 30-HR threat? (I like Luke, and he put together a great season, but I'm going to stay skeptical about his repeat potential until he...repeats) It just seems to me that the Orioles need to improve in a whole host of areas, and focusing on the lineup's relative lack of punch is every bit as reasonable as looking to improve pitching, defense, etc. Moreover, I think we could agree that improving pitching and power are probably going to be very expensive, one way or another (FA or trading), whereas it might be cheaper (though less impactful) to shore up baserunning and defense (if we can't get power, baserunning acumen and defense from the same player(s)).

So...I guess another way to put it would be: if the Orioles focus mostly on doing the little things correctly (baserunning, defense), they'll almost certainly win more games, but I highly doubt they'll win enough to make the playoffs out of the East if the offense improves only marginally. Moreover, as much as I like the way the rotation is rounding out, I don't think it can go toe-to-toe with those of the Yankees and Rays (especially if the Yankees land Lee this winter). At what point does prospectively burning money to inject some life into this team make sense? Never? I mean...sure, it's always easy to use one's imagination to spend someone else's money, and if the O's had a better talent pipeline coming up from the minors I'd say waste-not, want-not...but as things actually stand, overpaying (and possibly taking on what looks to be a bad contract or two) for free agents who could maybe only be counted on for a couple years' worth of big-time production seems like it might be...well, necessary.

Just seems like the only other option is treading water until the minor league system re-learns how to draft and develop talented position players.

[Frobby]

If instead you choose to operate simply, and move ahead wanting to upgrade the team by 150 runs, you can attack this on a variety of fronts.

In fairness, JTrea was discussing the limited options for acquiring a power bat, not the limited options for improving the team.

I'd really like to acquire a power bat. I think it would fuel some of the internal growth you referenced in your post. However, there is only so much you can pay to acquire a guy who is 31 years old and has 120 career homers. If Werth were on the Orioles next year, I'd say it would be even money whether he'd outhomer Luke Scott.

[JTrea81]

Yes, they missed their chance to overpay by $50-75M and hamstring the franchise through both the build-up to contention and through the likely contention phase of the rebuild.

This is only true when you buy into your amazing idea that you have to have loads of firmly established, top-dollar talent to compete.

If instead you choose to operate simply, and move ahead wanting to upgrade the team by 150 runs, you can attack this on a variety of fronts. You can get 50 runs from internal growth, you can get 30 or 40 runs from Lee or a comparable player (maybe even a young one like Alonso), you could get 20 or 30 or 50 from a new third baseman. You could get a glove to add 10 or 20 runs at third or short. You could really fortify the bullpen and save 30, 40, 50 runs. Nakajima could post, and the O's could gain 30 runs just on his offense over Izturis'.

There are always options. Anyone who tells you differently has an agenda.

Run prevention isn't the problem, though it can be augmented.

Run production is the immediate problem facing this team and why it did so horribly last season.

2008: O's scored 782 runs

2009: O's scored 741 runs

2010: O's scored 613 runs

2008: O's allowed 869 runs

2009: O's allowed 876 runs

2010: O's allowed 785 runs

It's good to see the pitching improve by 91 runs this year, but the offense was worse by 128 runs over 2009 and 169 runs over 2008.

This really needs to be seriously reversed in 2011. Every AL team that made the playoffs scored at least 781 runs in 2010. Every team in the AL East scored 755 runs or more, except the Orioles.

Even if you assume that the team can get its ERA down in the neighborhood of 4.00 next year, we'd still need about 90-100 more runs scored to be a .500 team.

So we are going to need a serious boost in offense. Projects and prospects aren't going to cut it.

[Stotle]

I'll point out that the number crunchers on Bill James's team have hypothesized that the Angels have outperformed their pythagorean estimates by as many as eight games in one season (I believe in 2008 or 2009) off of the strength of their baserunning.

A power bat is a great asset, but one stud in the middle of the lineup isn't the only way to compete. Now, I would agree that given the current construction of the team, BAL needs to bring in a couple better hitters, but I don't think any of them need to be 35 HR guys. A couple of hitters with real on-base skills and solid slugging could significantly boost the performance of the offense. The team's fortunes aren't tied to finding someone worthy of a $100 million contract.

Bottom line is that if a big bat is there and make sense, have at it. But you don't overpay to the point it will cripple your ability to function later on. When that happens, you aren't just wasting money on a bad contract, you are essentially wasting your entire payroll on a team that has no chance of competing. The goal is to get beyond the "not competitive" point and never look back...

[JTrea81]

How is it that Werth is realistic but CC isn't? The same teams will be vying for each guy in all likelihood.

Werth will likely be more in the Orioles' price range and he's more of a power bat than Crawford so he fits the criteria of what the O's are supposedly looking for though he's not at 1B.

[DrungoHazewood]

In fairness, JTrea was discussing the limited options for acquiring a power bat, not the limited options for improving the team.

But Trea's philosophy is, by-and-large, improvement through the acquisition of expensive sluggers.

I'd really like to acquire a power bat. I think it would fuel some of the internal growth you referenced in your post. However, there is only so much you can pay to acquire a guy who is 31 years old and has 120 career homers. If Werth were on the Orioles next year, I'd say it would be even money whether he'd outhomer Luke Scott.

Agree 100%. I'd love to have a 40-homer guy in the lineup. But I'm extremely reluctant to pay for a big slugger's peak, and instead get his decline.

Just because Werth peaked late doesn't mean he won't decline at the average rate. Or worse. Look at some of his comps through age 31. Henry Rodriguez, done at 33. Trot Nixon, done at 33. Gus Zernial, last decent year at 34. Chet Laabs, marginal MVP candidate at 30 and 31, never a regular player again. Wally Westlake, almost 100% of his value from age 26-30. Sam Chapman, last good year at 34.

[DrungoHazewood]

Run prevention isn't the problem, though it can be augmented.

Run production is the immediate problem facing this team and why it did so horribly last season.

So we are going to need a serious boost in offense. Projects and prospects aren't going to cut it.

You're wrong. The problem was an imbalance in runs scored against runs allowed. You're allowed to fix that in any way you can. There's nothing that says you can't win 100 games by scoring 750 and allowing 600.