Adding some patience

[JTrea81]

You're wrong. The problem was an imbalance in runs scored against runs allowed. You're allowed to fix that in any way you can. There's nothing that says you can't win 100 games by scoring 750 and allowing 600.

Last year you couldn't, at least in the AL East.

Every AL playoff team scored 780 runs or more.

In the AL East you have to have a good offense to go along with your pitching and defense.

And it's a lot harder to only allow 600 runs than it is to score 780. There were only two teams to allow 600 runs or less and they were both in the NL West in pitcher's parks - SD and SF.

A much more reasonable goal is to bring the runs against to 700 and boost the offense to that 780 mark.

[Bradysburns]

Come on, man. Don't you know Terry Crowley is supposed to turn our free-swingers into patient hitters.

No, Terry Crowley is on the Peter Angelos Early Retirement Plan. He has no responsibility outside of "swing mechanics," which nobody really understands. So that means he's really above all criticism from the fanbase, because no fan is really qualified to critique his "swing mechanics" expertise.

Plus, if the hitters continue to suck, it's their fault. TC is giving them all great advice! They're just not listening. But if they're doing good, they're listening to him, you see.

I think we need to get TC one of those "Lark" things to ride around in the dugout, bumping into water coolers and running over toes, and yelling at people to get out of his way, like the retirees currently swarming south Florida. He certainly doesn't have to worry about job security.

[MrOrange82]

I'll point out that the number crunchers on Bill James's team have hypothesized that the Angels have outperformed their pythagorean estimates by as many as eight games in one season (I believe in 2008 or 2009) off of the strength of their baserunning.

A power bat is a great asset, but one stud in the middle of the lineup isn't the only way to compete. Now, I would agree that given the current construction of the team, BAL needs to bring in a couple better hitters, but I don't think any of them need to be 35 HR guys. A couple of hitters with real on-base skills and solid slugging could significantly boost the performance of the offense. The team's fortunes aren't tied to finding someone worthy of a $100 million contract.

Bottom line is that if a big bat is there and make sense, have at it. But you don't overpay to the point it will cripple your ability to function later on. When that happens, you aren't just wasting money on a bad contract, you are essentially wasting your entire payroll on a team that has no chance of competing. The goal is to get beyond the "not competitive" point and never look back...

That's perfectly fair, but how far away from the "don't look back" point do you think the O's are? It seems to me like they're a long, long ways away. It doesn't seem like the minor leagues will be ready to produce all-star caliber position players anytime soon, and in the meantime we're expending a lot of prime years for our "core" (Markakis, Jones, Wieters (he'll be 24 next season)) on losing campaigns, not to mention that we're going to have to replace BRob sooner rather than later. On top of that, how many more solid seasons does Guthrie have in him? I think it's unrealistic to expect that every one of Matusz, Bergesen, Arrieta, Tillman and Britton is going to wind up being a dependable starter in the major leagues, so who fills in behind the ones who falter?

The Orioles' payroll hasn't exactly increased at a prodigious rate over the years...in fact, it's only gone up by 11 million since leading all of baseball in 1998. Regardless, if the consensus is that the O's don't need to spend big on contracts with questionable shelf-lives (in the 100 million dollar range), who are your targets and how/why do you think those targets would make the Orioles viable playoff contenders going up against the likes of the Yankees, Rays and Red Sox? The baserunning comment was interesting, btw, but the O's are going to need a lot more than 8 games...and they're not going to be able to get them mostly in the AL West.

[Frobby]

Run prevention isn't the problem, though it can be augmented.

Run production is the immediate problem facing this team and why it did so horribly last season....

we are going to need a serious boost in offense. Projects and prospects aren't going to cut it.

Number one, run prevention is still a problem, at least based on full season results. But we have reason to think that our run prevention will be substantially better in 2011 than in 2010, based on how the team performed the last two months.

I think by that same logic, the gap we need to close on offense may not be as bad as it seems by looking at full-season numbers. The O's scored at a 665-run pace after Buck arrived, compared to the 585-run pace they were on before. Considering that the league as a whole was down about 60 runs/team from 2009, that still means that the team's run-scoring pace under Buck, relative to the league, was down about 16 runs compared to the team's pace relative to the league in 2009 (when it was already below average) -- about 56 runs below average for 2010 (under Buck) compared to 40 runs below average in 2009. To me, that's a pretty realistic assessment of where the team was by the end of the year offensively, with BRob back in the lineup, etc.

It is not unheard of for a team to contend with an offense that is a little below average (see the 2008 Rays as an example), but I do not think we can count on that. So, in my mind we do need to find, say, 50 runs of offensive improvement from outside sources and then hope that internal development boosts us from average to above average.

[Frobby]

Last year you couldn't, at least in the AL East.

Every AL playoff team scored 780 runs or more.

In the AL East you have to have a good offense to go along with your pitching and defense.

And it's a lot harder to only allow 600 runs than it is to score 780. There were only two teams to allow 600 runs or less and they were both in the NL West in pitcher's parks - SD and SF.

A much more reasonable goal is to bring the runs against to 700 and boost the offense to that 780 mark.

Even though I'm the one who gave you these stats, now I think you are making too much of them. I agree with Drungo -- outscore your opponents by 150 runs or so, and it really doesn't matter how you do it.

One thing I definitely disagree with you on -- that it doesn't matter what division we play in. There's no reason an average offensive team that is excellent at run-prevention can't succeed in the AL East. That's how Tampa did it in 2008.

Those things said, I don't think our pitching and defense is going to be so good that we can contend -- in any division -- with a below average offense. So, in the end, I have little doubt that a significant offensive upgrade is required.

[Mr. Solo Dolo]

I can't believe I just witnessed someone SUPPORT giving Jayson Werth...yes, Jayson Werth...5 years for 90 million dollars. You see something new every day.

[JTrea81]

Even though I'm the one who gave you these stats, now I think you are making too much of them. I agree with Drungo -- outscore your opponents by 150 runs or so, and it really doesn't matter how you do it.

One thing I definitely disagree with you on -- that it doesn't matter what division we play in. There's no reason an average offensive team that is excellent at run-prevention can't succeed in the AL East. That's how Tampa did it in 2008.

Those things said, I don't think our pitching and defense is going to be so good that we can contend -- in any division -- with a below average offense. So, in the end, I have little doubt that a significant offensive upgrade is required.

I agree that type of team could succeed, but you are asking a ton of a young rotation to make that happen and looking at the position players we have locked down, their defense just won't be what it needs to be to make that happen.

You'd have to essentially clean out the roster to achieve an excellent run prevention team. And OPACY is certainly not condusive to run prevention so we'd likely need to alter the park or move completely as well.

An average run prevention team with a top 10 offense is much more obtainable given the roster makeup of the core and the current park the Orioles play IMO.

The Orioles need to build to their strengths and not try to make the team into something that doesn't fit the majority of their talent or ballpark.

[MrOrange82]

I agree that type of team could succeed, but you are asking a ton of a young rotation to make that happen and looking at the position players we have locked down, their defense just won't be what it needs to be to make that happen.

You'd have to essentially clean out the roster to achieve an excellent run prevention team. And OPACY is certainly not condusive to run prevention so we'd likely need to alter the park or move completely as well.

An average run prevention team with a top 10 offense is much more obtainable given the roster makeup of the core and the current park the Orioles play IMO.

The Orioles need to build to their strengths and not try to make the team into something that doesn't fit the majority of their talent or ballpark.

Umm...good defense fits in every ballpark. Unless you're suggesting the O's relocate to Atlantis. I'd imagine running/hitting underwater would make shutouts semi-inevitable.

Further...defense and offense don't have to be mutually exclusive. I think it's vitally important for the O's to land 1-2 legitimate power threats, but that doesn't mean they have to set their sights set on having no better than an average defense playing behind their pitchers.

[Frobby]

An average run prevention team with a top 10 offense is much more obtainable given the roster makeup of the core and the current park the Orioles play IMO.

The Orioles need to build to their strengths and not try to make the team into something that doesn't fit the majority of their talent or ballpark.

I don't agree with this assessment. You have to outscore your opponent no matter what ballpark you play in. If your pitching is better than your opponent's, that helps you win at OPACY just like it helps you when you play on the road.

Moreover, based on the last two months, I think we are closer to being an average-to-above pitching team than we are to being a top 10 offense.

None of this really changes what we need to do in the offseason, though. Our offense has holes that aren't likely to be plugged internally, whereas there's a decent chance that our pitching can continue improving without major upgrades from the outside. So, offense needs to be the primary focus this offseason. And I don't see a whole lot of people arguing otherwise. The only argument is who to chase and what we should be willing to pay to get them (either through trades or signings).

[OrangeJerseys]

Is AT&T really considered a pitcher's park?

[Stotle]

That's perfectly fair, but how far away from the "don't look back" point do you think the O's are? It seems to me like they're a long, long ways away. It doesn't seem like the minor leagues will be ready to produce all-star caliber position players anytime soon, and in the meantime we're expending a lot of prime years for our "core" (Markakis, Jones, Wieters (he'll be 24 next season)) on losing campaigns, not to mention that we're going to have to replace BRob sooner rather than later. On top of that, how many more solid seasons does Guthrie have in him? I think it's unrealistic to expect that every one of Matusz, Bergesen, Arrieta, Tillman and Britton is going to wind up being a dependable starter in the major leagues, so who fills in behind the ones who falter?

The Orioles' payroll hasn't exactly increased at a prodigious rate over the years...in fact, it's only gone up by 11 million since leading all of baseball in 1998. Regardless, if the consensus is that the O's don't need to spend big on contracts with questionable shelf-lives (in the 100 million dollar range), who are your targets and how/why do you think those targets would make the Orioles viable playoff contenders going up against the likes of the Yankees, Rays and Red Sox? The baserunning comment was interesting, btw, but the O's are going to need a lot more than 8 games...and they're not going to be able to get them mostly in the AL West.

Bottom line is if fans want to support BAL, they need to demand that the organization top notch in every aspect. Everyone knows BAL will not spend like the Yankees, or even the Red Sox. That means you need to

1) effectively acquire amateur talent,

2) effectively develop amateur talent,

3) become efficient in how you spend your ML payroll, and

4) find creative/innovative approaches to constructing your team so as to exploit undervalued assets in the market

Unless BAL does these things, the "who to sign" and "who to trade for" questions are much more message board fodder than anything else. Once BAL is doing the above, and the Major League team is a solid an efficient collection of players, the idea of a big spend or two makes complete sense.

Trying to move from a sixty-some win team to a ninety-some win team by overpaying for a star or two, while acknowledging their contracts will be bad in a few years, is the exact opposite of 1-4 above.

It's possible that MacPhail is assembling a solid core right now, and that over the next two off-seasons the right moves will put BAL where they need to be to compete. But that is still up in the air. What is clear is that the team as currently constructed isn't going to beat out NYA/TAM/BOS in 2011, so BAL needs to figure out the smartest and most efficient ways to close the gap so that a big spend becomes a legit final step, and not a wing-and-a-prayer approach to possible contention in 2012-2013 and three to five more years of crushing contracts negating any possibility of extending young players or jumping at other worthwhile opportunities.

[waroriole]

Umm...good defense fits in every ballpark. Unless you're suggesting the O's relocate to Atlantis. I'd imagine running/hitting underwater would make shutouts semi-inevitable.

That's ridiculous. Everyone knows you couldn't throw a strike underwater.

[MrOrange82]

That's ridiculous. Everyone knows you couldn't throw a strike underwater.

To borrow a line from Henry Rowengartner's mom...just float it?

[MrOrange82]

Bottom line is if fans want to support BAL, they need to demand that the organization top notch in every aspect. Everyone knows BAL will not spend like the Yankees, or even the Red Sox. That means you need to

1) effectively acquire amateur talent,

2) effectively develop amateur talent,

3) become efficient in how you spend your ML payroll, and

4) find creative/innovative approaches to constructing your team so as to exploit undervalued assets in the market

Unless BAL does these things, the "who to sign" and "who to trade for" questions are much more message board fodder than anything else. Once BAL is doing the above, and the Major League team is a solid an efficient collection of players, the idea of a big spend or two makes complete sense.

Trying to move from a sixty-some win team to a ninety-some win team by overpaying for a star or two, while acknowledging their contracts will be bad in a few years, is the exact opposite of 1-4 above.

It's possible that MacPhail is assembling a solid core right now, and that over the next two off-seasons the right moves will put BAL where they need to be to compete. But that is still up in the air. What is clear is that the team as currently constructed isn't going to beat out NYA/TAM/BOS in 2011, so BAL needs to figure out the smartest and most efficient ways to close the gap so that a big spend becomes a legit final step, and not a wing-and-a-prayer approach to possible contention in 2012-2013 and three to five more years of crushing contracts negating any possibility of extending young players or jumping at other worthwhile opportunities.

I really can't argue with any of the above, but what I'm getting in re: competing is that, IYO, the Orioles definitely won't be a playoff contender next year, and anything beyond next year can't be accurately assessed at present? Do you get the impression that the Orioles' FO is attempting to do what you described in 1-4? TBH, I'm really skeptical about 1-2...I know Rome wasn't built in a day, but sometimes it feels as though the workers are all taking 4 hour lunches...

[Stotle]

I really can't argue with any of the above, but what I'm getting in re: competing is that, IYO, the Orioles definitely won't be a playoff contender next year, and anything beyond next year can't be accurately assessed at present? Do you get the impression that the Orioles' FO is attempting to do what you described in 1-4? TBH, I'm really skeptical about 1-2...I know Rome wasn't built in a day, but sometimes it feels as though the workers are all taking 4 hour lunches...

I think Jordan's strategy in the last two drafts makes 1 and 2 tough to assess. He targeted a number of yet-to-break-out JuCo and HSers, which means you need to wait a couple of years to see if the development you are expecting will come to pass. I think 1 and 2 could have been simplified somewhat for the near term by targeting a few more developed HSers and 4-yr collegians, but that's just personal preference. If you trust Jordan as an evaluator, and everyone I've spoken with says he's a good one, then I think you need to give Jordan the rope he needs. Hopefully he's getting the right people and development is capable of bringing them along.

I think 2012 is certainly a reasonable target date for competing. Had 2010 not been wasted, I think 2011 could have been a competing year. I believe that the pen needs very little tweaking and that there are enough young arms to plug in that little if anything should be spent there (except in a trade if you can take on an unwanted contract as a secondary addition -- like Grienke/Soria).

I think the rotation can be very good. I've had 2011 circled as Matusz's first front-end year since draft day and I think he can reach it. I also believe Bergesen is an adequate back-ender already with room to reach 3/4 production. Tillman or Arrieta should be capable of producing a 4/5 as of next year. Guthrie should be a 3 with 2 upside. Adding someone like Grienke in a trade or Darvish should he post is a nice option if it's there, and could help negate the need for a big bopper.

I was not a fan of the positional moves made by MacPhail last year and I'm struggling to think of one that helps them moving forward. Hopefully he can shore up 3B/1B/SS with smart moves. The magnitude of those moves is dependent on how much growth you believe you'll see in Wieters/Jones/Reimold/Bell next year, and whether or not there is regression from Pie/Roberts. The foundation is here for an offense capable of 4.5-5 runs a game if you make smart signings/trades at 3B/1B/SS. One of those as a good trade or savvy upside signing could make this a good offense. Add a big producer next off-season when you see what that last hole is. If you haven't seen growth from Wieters/Jones/Bell/Reimold and the young staff, you aren't competing anyway so you start to reload.

To directly answer your question, I am withholding judgment on MacPhail until this off-season is over. That was my decision back in the 2009 off-season and I think it's still reasonable. He isn't in a position to make BAL a playoff team next year, but the chess moves have to start coming out. Last winter was all checkers, and that doesn't fly in the AL East.