Adding some patience

[hoosiers]

What this adds up to is the starting pitcher having to throw 8-14 more pitches and so they will come out of the game 2/3 to and inning earlier than last year.

Great stuff Jim.

My math is we may improve closer to .6 pp appearance for four positions covering approx 16 at-bats per game. That's a least 9.6 pitches right there - before the improved OBP.

Someone who can answer this quicker than me might provide a better answer, but the higher OBP will probably generate at least one more PA per game and possibly two or more - leading to an estimate of at least 13.5 to 18+ just from those positions. The middle/average of those two mumbers would be about 16 more pitches per game - pretty remarkable.

Great thread and follow up Frobby.

[ccbird]

I've never been a big Jones fan myself but he did flash signs of pretty good plate dicipline to start 2009. I really do believe a lot of his problems in that area since have been him pressing and a lack of focus. It's hard to grind out good ABs when you are trying to do too much on a losing team. Better hitters around him and a more competitive team should really help him. It wouldn't suprise me to see him put up a .300/.350/.500 line next year.

[Frobby]

A big thing in patience are the changes from last year.

Last year at 3rd base we had Tejada at 3.26 pitches/PA and Bell at 3.67, an average of about 3.40 over the season, next year we will have Reynolds at 4.16, a change of about .75 pitches per plate appearance

Last year at short we have Izturis at 3.31 pitches/plate appearance, Hardy last year was 3.89, an increase of .58 pitches/PA.

Last year in LF it was mainly Patterson at 3.34 pitches per plate appearance and Pie at 3.44 pitches/PA, this year if we have a good bit of Reimold at close of 4.00 pitches/PA it should be much higher

Last year at 1st base we had Atkins at 3.81 pitches/PA and Wiggington at 3.76 pitches/PA, this year we will have Lee at 4.24 pitches per plate appearance.

BRob a whole year at second will give us more patience.

What this adds up to is the starting pitcher having to throw 8-14 more pitches and so they will come out of the game 2/3 to and inning earlier than last year.

That adds up to more innings facing middle relievers!!!!!

But the biggest change and the best way to make pitchers throw more pitches is to get on base without making an out so that the pitcher not only throws those pitches to the batter who got on base but has to face another batter to get through the inning. Every extra batter a pitcher needs to face adds about 4 pitches.

Looking at the changes in OBP for our upgrades

.................2009..............2010

3rd base........290......Reynolds career OBP .340

SS................277.....Hardy career OBP .331

1b................289.....Lee career OBP .367

The 2009 numbers above are the accumulative numbers for the Os for the season from those positions.

We are going to have a lot more baserunners coming from these three upgrades which are going to make opposing pitchers work harder and leave the game sooner. More innings against middle relievers!!!

Last year from 3rd, SS, and 1B we got 21, 27, and 53 walks over 162 games. Reynolds, Hardy, and Lee in their careers have received 74, 52, and 74 walks per 162 games played. We should get about 100 more walks out of these 3 than we got out of those 3 positions last year.

Great analysis of the change in personnel. And yet, when the team draws more walks this year, I'm sure there will be people who say it's because Terry Crowley is no longer the hitting coach.

[jiminnj]

Great analysis of the change in personnel. And yet, when the team draws more walks this year, I'm sure there will be people who say it's because Terry Crowley is no longer the hitting coach.

If Pie and Jones start walking more, I will credit the Crowley being gone as part of the reason.

[OriolesMagic83]

Great analysis, jiminnj

It's easy to see why the O's offense was pathetic last year. It had more to do with the fact that 1/3 of our lineup was getting on base barely 28% of the time. Hopefully the moves the O's made will make for big increases in team OBP. Am I unrealistic thinking the team's OPS could improve 50 points? Major upgrades in OBP and SLG at 1B, 3B, and SS, w/ a full season of Roberts and some improvement from Weiters and Jones?

[OriolesMagic83]

Last yr's stats from ESPN. Looks like a .750 OPS equates to about 750 runs.

RK TEAM R H 2B 3B HR RBI BA OBP SLG OPS

1 Boston 818 1511 358 22 211 782 .268 .339 .451 .790

2 NY Yankees 859 1485 275 32 201 823 .267 .350 .436 .786

3 Toronto 755 1364 319 21 257 732 .248 .312 .454 .766

4 Minnesota 781 1521 318 41 142 749 .273 .341 .422 .762

5 Texas 787 1556 268 25 162 740 .276 .338 .419 .757

6 Chicago Sx 752 1467 263 21 177 710 .268 .332 .420 .752

7 Detroit 751 1515 308 32 152 717 .268 .335 .415 .750

8 Tampa Bay 802 1343 295 37 160 769 .247 .333 .403 .736

9 Kansas City 676 1534 279 31 121 640 .274 .331 .399 .730

10 Oakland 663 1396 276 30 109 619 .256 .324 .378 .702

11 Baltimore 613 1440 264 21 133 577 .259 .316 .386 .702

12 LA Angels 681 1363 276 19 155 656 .248 .311 .390 .702

13 Cleveland 646 1362 290 20 128 601 .248 .322 .378 .700

14 Seattle 513 1274 227 16 101 485 .236 .298 339 .637

[Sports Guy]

We should be a team that can get into the opposing team's bullpen a lot more than what we have seen in the past.

Lots of guys in our lineup now that like to see a lot of pitches. That is a little thing that could go a long way in us winning more games.

[Frobby]

Last yr's stats from ESPN. Looks like a .750 OPS equates to about 750 runs.

I think it's important for people to realize that our drastically low run total last year (613) was an aberration. In the previous 7 years we never scored fewer than 729. We scored 741 in 2009. Going into the season, there was nothing to suggest we would have a drastic drop in production. The BRob injury combined with super-disappointing seasons from many players caused a result that was almost unimaginable going into 2010. I would have expected some bounce back even if we hadn't upgraded at 3 positions as we have. I don't see any reason we should be below the league average in run production in 2011.

[EddieEddie]

Maybe Jones can learn some patience.

He'll never be considered a "patient" hitter but he certainly has room to improve. So much so, that it is likely he will improve that this year. By how much is anybody's guess.