Jim Callis comments on the O's lack of prospects in the league top 20's

[Frobby]

Mahoney will play the whole 2011 season at age 24. Who is to say in October of 2010 that he will not get sustantial major league playing time next year. An O's 1B or DH pulls a hammy and Mahoney is on the 40 man roster, next thing you know he is the majors. Maybe he is hot at the time and does not go back down.

Who knows. Certainly not me. But what I hate to see is people selling him short before he even gets a chance. That is what seems to be going on here.

A lot of what a read is what he doesn't have. The numbers he put up imply that he does have some pretty good tools. You point out that he was really hot for part of July and then cooled off in August. Does that remind you of anyone who had a 900 OPS and held down the DH position for the O's this year.

Mahoney is young. What he will become is unknown. I would like to see people give him the benefit of the doubt instead of selling him short. I think he has earned it.

I don't really understand why this seems to have gotten under your skin so much. Lets just say that (as I do) I hold the opinion that Brandon Snyder is a better prospect than Mahoney, and you (as you may) hold the opinion that Mahoney is a better prospect than Snyder. Am I "selling Mahoney short," any more than you may be "selling Snyder short?"

Everyone is entitled to their opinion. You have yours, I have mine, and Callis has his. If it's Callis' view that, despite a good 2010 season, Mahoney isn't a "top prospect" (whatever Callis means by that), I don't see it as "selling Mahoney short." He's paid to make these judgments and express his opinions. And his reference to a "top prospect" is probably stricter than yours.

Let's compare Mahoney to the BA Eastern League No. 18 prospect, Anthony Rizzo (Red Sox), who is also a 1B. Rizzo had 414 AB in the Eastern League at the age of 20, and hit .263/.334/.481 with 20 homers (and similar numbers in the Carolina League for 117 AB before that including another 5 HR). So Rizzo is 2.5 years younger, got to the Eastern League faster in 2010, and hit more HR than Mahoney. His OPS went from .647 in June to .830 in July to .908 in August. Last year, at age 19, he had much better numbers in the Sally League than Mahoney, and earned a mid-season promotion to the Carolina League. Would you not say, offhand, that he appears to be a way better prospect than Mahoney? And he's no. 18 on this list, not no. 1!

Let me make it clear: Mahoney may reach the majors, and maybe he'll be a solid player there one day. But he's not a top prospect. He just isn't.

[Traveler]

Mahoney is interesting because of his size and strength, we are not sure because it was the first time he had ever put up numbers. If he has the same numbers next year as Snyder did this year then his chances are gone. If Snyder puts up the numbers this year that Mahoney did, then he is in the majors next year. If Townsend puts up the same numbers next year as Mahoney, I will be disappointed because I think he is the real deal mainly because of his past. Snyder gets one more chance because he has performed, Mahoney only gets next year and it has to be special, Townsend gets two years with the chance of a Sept call up next year if he does what I think he will. I hope all three of them do well!!!

If there was a draft tomorrow and the only 3 players available were the 3 mentioned, it is pretty clear that Townsend would be 1, Snyder an easy 2nd and Mahoney a distant third.

[wildcard]

I don't really understand why this seems to have gotten under your skin so much. Lets just say that (as I do) I hold the opinion that Brandon Snyder is a better prospect than Mahoney, and you (as you may) hold the opinion that Mahoney is a better prospect than Snyder. Am I "selling Mahoney short," any more than you may be "selling Snyder short?"

Everyone is entitled to their opinion. You have yours, I have mine, and Callis has his. If it's Callis' view that, despite a good 2010 season, Mahoney isn't a "top prospect" (whatever Callis means by that), I don't see it as "selling Mahoney short." He's paid to make these judgments and express his opinions. And his reference to a "top prospect" is probably stricter than yours.

Let's compare Mahoney to the BA Eastern League No. 18 prospect, Anthony Rizzo (Red Sox), who is also a 1B. Rizzo had 414 AB in the Eastern League at the age of 20, and hit .263/.334/.481 with 20 homers (and similar numbers in the Carolina League for 117 AB before that including another 5 HR). So Rizzo is 2.5 years younger, got to the Eastern League faster in 2010, and hit more HR than Mahoney. His OPS went from .647 in June to .830 in July to .908 in August. Last year, at age 19, he had much better numbers in the Sally League than Mahoney, and earned a mid-season promotion to the Carolina League. Would you not say, offhand, that he appears to be a way better prospect than Mahoney? And he's no. 18 on this list, not no. 1!

Let me make it clear: Mahoney may reach the majors, and maybe he'll be a solid player there one day. But he's not a top prospect. He just isn't.

You ask an interesting question. Who is better Anthony Rizzo or Joe Mahoney?

Well its true that as a high school draftee Rizzo is 2.5 years younger then college draftee Mahoney. Both were drafted in the 6th round of the 2007 draft. Both spent two years in the Sally League. Both played at Carolina Leaque and Eastern League last year.

Now let see how their skills compare. Here is the answer from The Baseball Cube:

Mahoney is rated better in:

Power: 81 to 70

Batting average: 78 to 70

Speed: 51 to 26

Contact: 60 to 43

Rizzo is rated better in;

Patience: 72 to 46

So you talk about opinions. Callis is just one. He disses Mathoney as just not that good a prospect. Others think differently.

Now certainly Rizzo being younger gives him more time to develop before he hits his peak. But according to this right now Mahoney's skills are developed better. And Mahoney therefore may reach the majors sooner.

http://thebaseballcube.com/players/R/Anthony-Rizzo.shtml

http://thebaseballcube.com/players/M/Joe-Mahoney.shtml

Just for kicks lets look at Snyder. (I really don't know who is better Mahoney or Snyder).

Mahoney is better than Snyder in:

Power: 81 to 72

Batting average: 78 to 61

Speed: 51 to 36

Contact: 60 to 30

Snyder wins in:

Patience: 50 to 46

http://thebaseballcube.com/players/S/Brandon-Snyder.shtml

Comments?

[QBsILLEST1]

You ask an interesting question. Who is better Anthony Rizzo or Joe Mahoney?

Well its true that as a high school draftee Rizzo is 2.5 years younger then college draftee Mahoney. Both were drafted in the 6th round of the 2007 draft. Both spend two years in the Sally League. Both played at Carolina Leaque and Eastern League last year.

Now let see how their skills compare. Here is the answer from The Baseball Cube:

Mahoney is rated better in:

Power: 81 to 70

Batting average: 78 to 70

Speed: 51 to 26

Contact: 60 to 43

Rizzo is rated better in;

Patience: 72 to 46

So you talk about opinions. Callis is just one. He disses Mathoney as just not that good a prospect. Others think differently.

Now certainly Rizzo being younger gives him more time to develop before he hits his peak. But according to this right now Mahoney's skills are developed better. And Mahoney therefore may reach the majors sooner.

http://thebaseballcube.com/players/R/Anthony-Rizzo.shtml

http://thebaseballcube.com/players/M/Joe-Mahoney.shtml

Just for kick lets look at Snyder. (I really don't know who is better Mahoney or Snyder).

Mahoney is better than Snyder in:

Power: 81 to 72

Batting average: 78 to 61

Speed: 51 to 36

Contact: 60 to 30

Snyder wins in:

Patience: 50 to 46

http://thebaseballcube.com/players/S/Brandon-Snyder.shtml

Comments?

Alright, the baseball cube "ratings" are hardly a good indicator of future performance, especially future performance in the ML. For example, why not look at Joel Guzman's stats and then argue why he is a better prospect than Mahoney? Because age matters, scouting reports matter, tools matter, contact/K rates matter. But those measurements on baseball cube don't measure those very important factors when trying to judge or evaluate a prospect. Another name, Brandon Waring has actual "plus" power and year in and year out shows it by hitting 20+ HRs. Why is he not considered a "special" prospect? Because of his weak contact rate which will only get worse once in the ML. I just think the stats are getting taken a bit too out of context here. This isn't a situation like Avery who we expect to improve, 1 because he is way under the normal age for his level, 2 expect for more power to emerge as he grows into his body more and 3 because he has just focused his 100% attention to baseball for the first time ever just a couple years ago. Its a guy drafted out of college who has been old for his leagues and never performed well until this year and even then still, it isn't enough to be a "special" or even top 1st base prospect.....I dunno if he will even become a replacement level 1B in the ML......

[Arthur_Bryant]

Comments?

Yes. That's the first time I ever seen The Baseball Cube tools ratings of MiLB players used to support a serious argument.

Nobody takes those seriously.

[wildcard]

Alright, the baseball cube "ratings" are hardly a good indicator of future performance, especially future performance in the ML. For example, why not look at Joel Guzman's stats and then argue why he is a better prospect than Mahoney? Because age matters, scouting reports matter, tools matter, contact/K rates matter. But those measurements on baseball cube don't measure those very important factors when trying to judge or evaluate a prospect. Another name, Brandon Waring has actual "plus" power and year in and year out shows it by hitting 20+ HRs. Why is he not considered a "special" prospect? Because of his weak contact rate which will only get worse once in the ML. I just think the stats are getting taken a bit too out of context here. This isn't a situation like Avery who we expect to improve, 1 because he is way under the normal age for his level, 2 expect for more power to emerge as he grows into his body more and 3 because he has just focused his 100% attention to baseball for the first time ever just a couple years ago. Its a guy drafted out of college who has been old for his leagues and never performed well until this year and even then still, it isn't enough to be a "special" or even top 1st base prospect.....I dunno if he will even become a replacement level 1B in the ML......

You guys just will not give this guy his due. You keep coming up with bogus reasons why this guy should get the consideration he deserves.

Mahoney was 23 last year not 25 like Guzman playing at AA. Why would be even bring that up?

You asked and answered your own question about Waring. Waring is all power and nothing else. His contact rate is 13 while Mahoney's skills are more balanced with a 60.

Avery is a speed player that you are trying to compare to a corner infielder whose play is much better power. Their game is completely different. Its like comparing Roberts to Scott. They have different strengths and should have different strengths. That doesn't mean they both can't support a winning team.

[wildcard]

Yes. That's the first time I ever seen The Baseball Cube tools ratings of MiLB players used to support a serious argument.

Nobody takes those seriously.

Well there is a first time for everything. If the guys around here have embraced a system like Fangraphs that has known holes in its logic. Whose defensive system is shaky at best and that admits that its pitching evaluate of worth is not that good. Then why not use a statistical analysis like THe Baseball Cube? It tells you what it is doing.

I would not try to say that this system is the best in the world however it is a honest attempt to evaluate players statistically as far as I can see. If it has holes on that basis please point them out, because I have not heard them discussed.

This system appears much narrower in its evaluation. It does try to evaluate defense. It concentrates on offense and pitching. It doesn't try to convert the judgement of scouts to numbers so they can be included that it the report. It takes straight offensive and pitching numbers and put them in categories. Sounds straight forward enough.

Glad to listen and reevaluate if there are reasons that comes up that say this system is bogus but so far I have not heard it.

[eb45]

I wouldn't consider Lou Montanez as having any true "plus" tools. He put up a .986 OPS in 08.

Montanez at the very least had a plus hit tool, if not power as well. He was drafted #3 overall, remember. Of course, he had some pretty glaring weaknesses that stopped him from effectively utilizing those plus tools at higher levels, which is why he has never hit in the majors.

[Crazysilver03]

You guys just will not give this guy his due. You keep coming up with bogus reasons why this guy should get the consideration he deserves.

Mahoney was 23 last year not 25 like Guzman playing at AA. Why would be even bring that up?

You asked and answered your own question about Waring. Waring is all power and nothing else. His contact rate is 13 while Mahoney's skills are more balanced with a 60.

Avery is a speed player that you are trying to compare to a corner infielder whose play is much better power. Their game is completely different. Its like comparing Roberts to Scott. They have different strengths and should have different strengths. That doesn't mean they both can't support a winning team.

Where do you see that?

Everyone here wants to see him succeed. I thought he had an amazing year but I am going to wait to see him repeat it next season. I know the injuries he had prior to this season and that it makes sense that he was better this season because of his previous injuries. I think he can become a top prospect, but I also haven't seen him first hand so I don't know what he offers. I see nothing wrong with what anyone has wrote here.

[Crazysilver03]

Well there is a first time for everything. If the guys around here have embraced a system like Fangraphs that has known holes in its logic. Whose defensive system is shaky at best and that admits that its pitching evaluate of worth is not that good. Then why not use a statistical analysis like THe Baseball Cube? It tells you what it is doing.

I would not try to say that this system is the best in the world however it is a honest attempt to evaluate players statistically as far as I can see. If it has holes on that basis please point them out, because I have not heard them discussed.

This system appears much narrower in its evaluation. It does try to evaluate defense. It concentrates on offense and pitching. It doesn't try to convert the judgement of scouts to numbers so they can be included that it the report. It takes straight offensive and pitching numbers and put them in categories. Sounds straight forward enough.

Glad to listen and reevaluate if there are reasons that comes up that say this system is bogus but so far I have not heard it.

I am interested to know where they get their numbers for the minor league board, as those numbers are usually hard to obtain.

BaseballCube also has had several errors on their players' pages before.

[Tony-OH]

You ask an interesting question. Who is better Anthony Rizzo or Joe Mahoney?

Well its true that as a high school draftee Rizzo is 2.5 years younger then college draftee Mahoney. Both were drafted in the 6th round of the 2007 draft. Both spent two years in the Sally League. Both played at Carolina Leaque and Eastern League last year.

Now let see how their skills compare. Here is the answer from The Baseball Cube:

Mahoney is rated better in:

Power: 81 to 70

Batting average: 78 to 70

Speed: 51 to 26

Contact: 60 to 43

Rizzo is rated better in;

Patience: 72 to 46

So you talk about opinions. Callis is just one. He disses Mathoney as just not that good a prospect. Others think differently.

Now certainly Rizzo being younger gives him more time to develop before he hits his peak. But according to this right now Mahoney's skills are developed better. And Mahoney therefore may reach the majors sooner.

http://thebaseballcube.com/players/R/Anthony-Rizzo.shtml

http://thebaseballcube.com/players/M/Joe-Mahoney.shtml

Just for kicks lets look at Snyder. (I really don't know who is better Mahoney or Snyder).

Mahoney is better than Snyder in:

Power: 81 to 72

Batting average: 78 to 61

Speed: 51 to 36

Contact: 60 to 30

Snyder wins in:

Patience: 50 to 46

http://thebaseballcube.com/players/S/Brandon-Snyder.shtml

Comments?

Did you just really use the Baseball cube's ratings? No offense, but they hold as much weight as you pulling out your magic 8 ball and asking for answers when trying to determine prospects. Age and level mean a ton more than ratings based off statistics that don't take age and experience into consideration.

[Tony-OH]

You guys just will not give this guy his due. You keep coming up with bogus reasons why this guy should get the consideration he deserves.

Mahoney was 23 last year not 25 like Guzman playing at AA. Why would be even bring that up?

You asked and answered your own question about Waring. Waring is all power and nothing else. His contact rate is 13 while Mahoney's skills are more balanced with a 60.

Avery is a speed player that you are trying to compare to a corner infielder whose play is much better power. Their game is completely different. Its like comparing Roberts to Scott. They have different strengths and should have different strengths. That doesn't mean they both can't support a winning team.

Ok, how about this. Mahoney still dives into the plate a lot of times on pitches and good fastballs will eat him up inside due to his long arms. He has good plate coverage and light tower power when it gets a hold of pitches, but he can get unbalanced quickly and there are concerns that he will struggle with good fastball at the major league level.

He's an average defensive first baseman at best who throws below average and although he does run well, he probably won't steal bases at the major league level.

Add in the fact that I can't find one scout outside the organization that thinks he's a major league regular and he's mostly viewed as a fourth outfielder/part-time first baseman by most people I've talked to. In my opinion, that matches up with what I've seen from him.

He had a nice year, but he also slumped down the stretch which could have been pitchers adjusting to pounding him inside.

He's made himself into a prospect this year, but Callis is right on the mark when he says he's not a top prospect. He's not. That doesn't take anything away from what Joe accomplished this season. He's proved some folks wrong (including me) before, so maybe he can continue to do so.

[wildcard]

Where do you see that?

Everyone here wants to see him succeed. I thought he had an amazing year but I am going to wait to see him repeat it next season. I know the injuries he had prior to this season and that it makes sense that he was better this season because of his previous injuries. I think he can become a top prospect, but I also haven't seen him first hand so I don't know what he offers. I see nothing wrong with what anyone has wrote here.

Did you read the post I was responding to? Comparing Mahoney to Guzman, Waring and Avery. Come on.

[wildcard]

Ok, how about this. Mahoney still dives into the plate a lot of times on pitches and good fastballs will eat him up inside due to his long arms. He has good plate coverage and light tower power when it gets a hold of pitches, but he can get unbalanced quickly and there are concerns that he will struggle with good fastball at the major league level.

He's an average defensive first baseman at best who throws below average and although he does run well, he probably won't steal bases at the major league level.

Add in the fact that I can't find one scout outside the organization that thinks he's a major league regular and he's mostly viewed as a fourth outfielder/part-time first baseman by most people I've talked to. In my opinion, that matches up with what I've seen from him.

He had a nice year, but he also slumped down the stretch which could have been pitchers adjusting to pounding him inside.

He's made himself into a prospect this year, but Callis is right on the mark when he says he's not a top prospect. He's not. That doesn't take anything away from what Joe accomplished this season. He's proved some folks wrong (including me) before, so maybe he can continue to do so.

Thanks Tony. Nice to see a balanced post which talks about the good and the need for improvement.

[Frobby]

You guys just will not give this guy his due. You keep coming up with bogus reasons why this guy should get the consideration he deserves.

I think there are two separate points being addressed here:

1. How good of a prospect do we think Mahoney is?

2. Did Jim Callis "diss" Mahoney by saying he wasn't a "top prospect?"

My problem with you is on the second point. Here's what you said:

I lost some respect for Callis here. Even if he is right there is not reason to diss Mahoney like this. Sometime you just shut up and let things play out. The kid deserves to try to earn his way to the majors without some one like Callis labeling him.

I just don't buy this, at all. Callis' job is to have opinions on players. He has an opinion on Mahoney. I have no problem at all with the way in which he stated his opinion. I see nothing disrespectful about it. And he isn't the only observer who has that opinion.

Moreover, nobody here is saying that Mahoney shouldn't get a chance to "earn his way to the majors." He'll get his chance, and how Callis (or you, or I, or Tony) labeled him won't matter if he performs. That doesn't mean that when we express our honest opinions about his chances, we are "dissing" him.

It's in my DNA to root for Orioles prospects, not against them. I'd rather have Mahoney prove me wrong than win an argument with you over how good a prospect he is. But for now, my opinion is that he's not likely to be a major league starting player, and that he isn't a top prospect.