Rank the 1B prospects

[Frobby]

I'm just curious to see how folks rank our three top 1B prospects.

[Arthur_Bryant]

Voted:

Snyder, Mahoney, Townsend

But I have a strong feeling that the order could be reversed as early as next Memorial Day.

[Frobby]

I voted Snyder, Townsend, Mahoney. I have to admit, I don't feel I have a real good handle on Townsend because he has played so little. He might deserve to be ranked 1st, or 3rd.

Snyder vs. Mahoney is a fairly close call. I continue to put a lot of stock in the fact that he's only 2-3 months older than Mahoney, and yet he has played 1.5 seasons in AAA and had a cup of coffee in the majors, whereas Mahoney has only a half-season of AA under his belt. Snyder's half-season of AA at age 22 was better than Mahoney's at age 23, and his season of A+ at age 21 was better than Mahoney's at 23. And to me, even though Snyder has struggled quite a bit at AAA, I haven't forgotten how he excelled twice in the AFL and once in the HWL. I just think he's better than his AAA numbers have shown.

[Arthur_Bryant]

I voted Snyder, Townsend, Mahoney. I have to admit, I don't feel I have a real good handle on Townsend because he has played so little. He might deserve to be ranked 1st, or 3rd.

Snyder vs. Mahoney is a fairly close call. I continue to put a lot of stock in the fact that he's only 2-3 months older than Mahoney, and yet he has played 1.5 seasons in AAA and had a cup of coffee in the majors, whereas Mahoney has only a half-season of AA under his belt. Snyder's half-season of AA at age 22 was better than Mahoney's at age 23, and his season of A+ at age 21 was better than Mahoney's at 23. And to me, even though Snyder has struggled quite a bit at AAA, I haven't forgotten how he excelled twice in the AFL and once in the HWL. I just think he's better than his AAA numbers have shown.

So do I, but I think he'll have to figure out a way to show it at Norfolk, because I don't think he'll get a chance to show it in the majors otherwise.

[Frobby]

So do I, but I think he'll have to figure out a way to show it at Norfolk, because I don't think he'll get a chance to show it in the majors otherwise.

Well, I don't expect the O's to wait around for him. I think (and hope) that they will bring in a solid major league 1B.

[Stotle]

I honestly think you can make arguments for any order. None of them strike me as particularly exciting prospects, but all seem like they have a chance to become average contributors.

Snyder needs to do something next year or I think most will have given up on him.

Mahoney has been talked to death already, but I think the bottom line is he needs to perform well next year to establish himself. His 2010 was good, but certainly not a breakout. 23 isn't ancient for HiA/AA, but it's far from young and far from impressive. If he hits around .280/.340/.480 at Norfolk, he'll have made some noise.

Townsend was fine in limited action. I'd like to see him stay healthy. Otherwise, he's in the same boat as Mahoney 2010, though with a much better lead-in. I'd want to see a strong offensive performance over the entirety of 2011 at AA, which to me includes some of those doubles turning into homeruns.

All three look like they have skill sets that could translate into ML regulars, but I don't think any looks like a good bet everydayer or long shot big contributor.

[Arthur_Bryant]

All three look like they have skill sets that could translate into ML regulars, but I don't think any looks like a good bet everydayer or long shot big contributor.

That settles it--we have to trade for Fielder NOW!!!

(Kidding...)

[Stotle]

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=1B&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=572213

I'd say a .325 AVG and a .959 OPS for a 22 year old, first full season out of college, is a tad bit better than fine. I'd say that was damn good. I think the numbers for Townsend are exciting. 21 doubles, 4 triples, and 6 homers and 45 RBI in 52 games. That's a heckuva pace!

Great. I'm glad you're excited and hope you enjoy following him and the rest of the O's prospects.

[Sports Guy]

IMO the real question to ask is this......Are any of these guys "real" prospects?

I would guess that we still don't have any kind of real long term solution at first.

[praveen520]

I think 3rd base is a more pressing need for the Orioles right now. I actually think that Snyder as of now is more polished than Bell and should be given a chance to compete for the 1st base men's job out of ST. Snyder only got 20 ABs. I wish he was given the 1 mo chance that Bell got and didnt capitalize on.

[sangar]

IMO the real question to ask is this......Are any of these guys "real" prospects?

I would guess that we still don't have any kind of real long term solution at first.

Townsend's numbers look pretty good to me. Why is he recieving so little credit by so many people?

[Arthur_Bryant]

Townsend's numbers look pretty good to me. Why is he recieving so little credit by so many people?

He has had trouble staying on the field.

Consequently, there is just not much performance to go on. What there is, looks good. But he needs to stay healthy.

[Arthur_Bryant]

I think 3rd base is a more pressing need for the Orioles right now. I actually think that Snyder as of now is more polished than Bell and should be given a chance to compete for the 1st base men's job out of ST. Snyder only got 20 ABs. I wish he was given the 1 mo chance that Bell got and didnt capitalize on.

Compete with whom? If the O's sign a FA 1Bman this winter, there won't be any competition. I've been a Snyder fan, but even I don't think the O's should keep a spot open for him. The O's need credible upgrades at both corner spots.

It's easy to say in retrospect that Snyder should have gotten the ABs that went to Bell. But Snyder had his chance while he was at Norfolk. He wasn't blocked; the path was wide open when Atkins fizzled, but Snyder didn't take advantage.

[Stotle]

Townsend's numbers look pretty good to me. Why is he recieving so little credit by so many people?

Here are a couple of my favorite second and third tier talents going into the draft:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=oaks--001ala

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=bischo001mat

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=cerret001phi

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=guinn-002bri

All were on my high recommend draft list and check out the wide variance in rounds selected. I don't consider any of them to be big time prospects until they get a couple of productive seasons under their belt. The skillsets still have questions, but I love them for what they represent as potential contributors with development. I would consider the existence of players like this when relying on stat lines for appraisals (which we all have to do from time to time). Townsend went higher than all of these players, and is obviously older and finished at a higher level.

[Arthur_Bryant]

Here are a couple of my favorite second and third tier talents going into the draft:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=oaks--001ala

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=bischo001mat

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=cerret001phi

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=guinn-002bri

All were on my high recommend draft list and check out the wide variance in rounds selected. I don't consider any of them to be big time prospects until they get a couple of productive seasons under their belt. The skillsets still have questions, but I love them for what they represent as potential contributors with development. I would consider the existence of players like this when relying on stat lines for appraisals (which we all have to do from time to time). Townsend went higher than all of these players, and is obviously older and finished at a higher level.

Cerreto undrafted?

That's a nice catch for the Cards. Two-time Appy League PoW.