Tillman vs Bergesen

[sangar]

I think I see where you're going w/ that last sentence (or, at least, to address it further would diverge too far from baseball), but wouldn't one pretty much always want to stick with what are all-but-universally considered superior forms of logic? Or at least absent extraordinary circumstances?

You're right of course that it does indeed invalidate his opinion but not his assertion.

[weams]

This is something, I guess. But why does "I was trying to do too much of what they were trying to tell me to do" mean he wasn't listening to his instructors? Doesn't it sound more like he was (in his mind at least) overthinking?

I'd also like to temper the notion that he's been 'shelled.' He has a 5.22 ML xFIP. Bad, yes, but not mind-boggingly atrocious.

And there you go, again, saying that he pitched poorly "because of poor fastball command." Do you ever acknowledge that multiple factors contribute to things like poor performance?

Do you mean like quality of opponent? Catcher of the day? Wind Conditions? Day or night game?

[Moose Milligan]

Even though I voted to trade Tillman...I'd love nothing more than to see him put together a monster 2011 and silence a certain someone...

[Frobby]

weams, the problem with the Curt Schilling deal was not that we gave him up... it's that we gave him AND Finley up for a 1-hit-wonder who completely flopped..

Don't forget Pete Harnish. He may not have had the long term success the other two had but he provided much more value for Houston and, I believe, Cincinatti than Davis gave us.

The O's somehow coveted Jeff Ballard over both of those guys. Unreal.

Yep. I remember their reasoning behind Finely was "he will never hit for power".

A couple of things here. Yes, it was an awful trade, and the O's clearly undervalued what they had. But Glen Davis was not a "one-hit wonder." He finished 2nd in the NL in HR in 1986 and 3rd in 1988 and 1989. He was a bona fide power hitter. As to Jeff Ballard, did it ever occur to you that maybe the Astros didn't want him, after a season in which he went 2-11? Finley was highly regarded but he was somewhat redundant of Brady Anderson, so they could afford to give him up.

[gman2388]

Do you mean like quality of opponent? Catcher of the day? Wind Conditions? Day or night game?

Sure but even when considering just the pitcher himself, how he commands one of his pitches will most likely not be the only reason for his struggles. And in addition there's home/road, how the game context affects everything, and plenty of luck.

[Frobby]

I disagree, Bergy to me isn't a 3.75 pitcher. I'd honestly be happy to get a 4.50 ERA from him going forward. Just because he threw to a 3.45 ERA for a100+ IP in 09 doesn't mean that is his upside, nor should it indicate that a 3.75 ERA is his upside. What pitchers do you know of have a comparable arsenal to him that are 3.75 ERA guys?

I respect your opinion, but with a guy like Bergesen, his "arsenal" isn't the question. Rather, the question is whether his command will be sharp on a consistent basis. I've seen Bergesen do this:

12 starts, 84 IP, 2.46 ERA

12 starts, 82 IP, 2.85 ERA

That tells me that when he's right, he can get major league hitters out on a consistent basis.

I'm not expecting a 3.75 ERA from him, but to me, he has the upside to do that.

[theobird]

I'll take Bergesen. He's proven he can string a good year (2009) or a couple of good months together. I didn't realize how good he was in August in September this year. His last 10 starts in those months his ERA was under 3. I'm not saying he's a number one starter but I think his stuff and talent is underappreciated on here. Why is Tillman talked about as having so much more potential than Bergesen? I don't get it. Is his stuff better? I'll take Bergesens' fastball anyday over Tillman's. Velocity is close and movement goes to Bergesen. Tillman's cutter verses Bergesen's slider? Maybe it's close. I think Tillman shows a better changeup right now. Command has to go to Bergesen. Both could improve. Tillman has a longer way to go. I certainly don't see top of the rotation starter in Tillman. I do think Bergesen could be a #2 or #3 starter. When he's good, he's very good. He's shown he can be very good more than just one or two starts here and there. I'm not looking to deal Tillman just to deal him either. I believe in pitching depth and I still don't think we have a lot of it. I'd be more inclined to move a reliever like Hernandez or hitters, minor or major league.

I am in total agreement with RZNJ on this one. To me Bergeson has shown who he is, and that is a very solid 2,3 guy. Tillman is a young guy with issues but a lot of upside. Not really thrilled with trading Tillman, but if the right return was presented I would consider it. I have said it a million times, I would trade any player on this team for the right return.

[sangar]

A couple of things here. Yes, it was an awful trade, and the O's clearly undervalued what they had. But Glen Davis was not a "one-hit wonder." He finished 2nd in the NL in HR in 1986 and 3rd in 1988 and 1989. He was a bona fide power hitter. As to Jeff Ballard, did it ever occur to you that maybe the Astros didn't want him, after a season in which he went 2-11? Finley was highly regarded but he was somewhat redundant of Brady Anderson, so they could afford to give him up.

Of course. It's easy to critisize this trade in hindsight but I'll openly admit at the time I was thrilled. Davis seemed to have HOF stamped on his forehead and the players we traded all had big question marks.

[SrMeowMeow]

I'll take Bergesen. He's proven he can string a good year (2009) or a couple of good months together. I didn't realize how good he was in August in September this year. His last 10 starts in those months his ERA was under 3. I'm not saying he's a number one starter but I think his stuff and talent is underappreciated on here. Why is Tillman talked about as having so much more potential than Bergesen? I don't get it. Is his stuff better? I'll take Bergesens' fastball anyday over Tillman's. Velocity is close and movement goes to Bergesen. Tillman's cutter verses Bergesen's slider? Maybe it's close. I think Tillman shows a better changeup right now. Command has to go to Bergesen. Both could improve. Tillman has a longer way to go. I certainly don't see top of the rotation starter in Tillman. I do think Bergesen could be a #2 or #3 starter. When he's good, he's very good. He's shown he can be very good more than just one or two starts here and there. I'm not looking to deal Tillman just to deal him either. I believe in pitching depth and I still don't think we have a lot of it. I'd be more inclined to move a reliever like Hernandez or hitters, minor or major league.

He's not close to a #1. If he has ever matches 2009 (even just in terms of ERA and IP) I will eat my computer. And I like Bergesen plenty. You just can't be a very good major league starter of any real value with a K/9 under 5. Maybe he'll be a right-handed Mark Buehrle...that's his absolute upside IMO, but I doubt he'll approach that.

[sangar]

I disagree, Bergy to me isn't a 3.75 pitcher. I'd honestly be happy to get a 4.50 ERA from him going forward. Just because he threw to a 3.45 ERA for a100+ IP in 09 doesn't mean that is his upside, nor should it indicate that a 3.75 ERA is his upside. What pitchers do you know of have a comparable arsenal to him that are 3.75 ERA guys?

So the fact that he did it isn't evidence of his ability to do it again?

[Sports Guy]

No one said he was a number one. If you want to ignore reality (his 2009 season and last two months of 2010) be my guest. Bergesen has proven that he can be a solid ML starter with a lower K rate. Of course, some will say he was lucky for all of 2009 and for two straight months last year. I just think he's good. Unfortunately, he had the arm problem to start last year and was out of synch for awhile. I don't know why you doubt him approaching Mark Buerhle's career. I even think you'll see Bergesen's strikeout rate rise a little more. Why does everyone always discount improvement. Bergesen just turned 25.

BB is what he is.

I wouldn't expect him to become a different pitcher at all.

What he is, is a valuable guy that a lot of teams would love to have at the back of their rotation.

[carolinaoriole]

I if had to make this decision I would trade Tillman. He has more upside but I really like Bergeson. I think that he has the mentality and grit of Jamie Moyer .

Trading Tillman could come back to bite the Orioles but I would make that trade if I had to make that choice.

[Mitch Connor]

Even though I voted to trade Tillman...I'd love nothing more than to see him put together a monster 2011 and silence a certain someone...

Do you mean cut him back to only 40 posts a day?

[Scrat1]

Chris Tillman (Baltimore): Still a believer?

Klaw (2:00 PM): Yep. Doesn't always happen right away.

Not that it really matters, but this is from Law's chat a few days ago.

Let the kid pitch.

[Sports Guy]

There's still room to improve on his changeup. He won't change the type of pitcher he is, but he certainly can get better, not that he could pitch much better than he did over the last two months. The shame of it is, Bergesen could pitch to a 3.50 ERA for the next two years and people would still be calling him a back of the rotation starter. Being high on Bergesen doesn't mean I'm down on Tillman. Using the slider instead of the curveball gave me some hope in him to end the season. He's still a work in progress. Bergesen is already a reliable starter. I think it's silly to pidgeonhole a 25 year old pitcher who's done what Bergesen has, as a back of the rotation starter.

What I am pidgeonholing him as is a guy that gets grounders, has average-ish secondary pitches and won't get a lot of K's.

Now, can he improve those secondary pitches? Perhaps...But its not something I would really count on...at least in terms of making him a sub 4 ERA pitcher on a consistent basis.