Tillman vs Bergesen

[Moose Milligan]

Ah, yes...SG's arch nemesis. :vader:

[ChaosLex]

He's the great white buffalo... :rofl:

[QBsILLEST1]

Ah, yes...SG's arch nemesis. :vader:

But there is a difference between a pitcher with a FB that sits 93-95 than one who generally sits 89-91 with both having average secondaries. Guthrie has an explosive FB and whether he gets K's or not, it is difficult to hit well when thrown as hard as his is with the movement it gets.

[Sports Guy]

But there is a difference between a pitcher with a FB that sits 93-95 than one who generally sits 89-91 with both having average secondaries. Guthrie has an explosive FB and whether he gets K's or not, it is difficult to hit well when thrown as hard as his is with the movement it gets.

Not to mention, Guthrie has better peripherals and they were much better in his first few seasons.

[DrungoHazewood]

Here is a philosophical question:

Pitcher A has a 65% chance of being a league average starter. His chances of being a TOR starter, probably a no. 2, are 10%. His chances of washing out of the league in 2-3 years are 25%.

Pitcher B has a 35% chance of being a league average starter. His chances of being a TOR starter are 25%, say a 10% chance of being a no. 1 and a 15% chances of being a no. 2. His chances of washing out of the league in 2-3 years are 40%.

Assume you can get the same value for either in a trade. Which do you keep?

I'm not saying this is the exact case with Bergesen and Tillman, but it's close. Frankly, I don't give Tillman a 25% chance of being a TOR starter.

You know the reality is probably going to much messier than TOR/Average/Out of League. It'll probably be more like:

Bergesen throws 14 games in 2011 to a 3.33, gets hurt, misses six months, has a 6.25 ERA in 2012, then averages 220 innings of a 4.20 from 2013-2015. Signs as a free agent with San Antonio.

Tillman throws 182 innings of a 4.87 next year, 210 of a 3.43 in 2012, 88 innings of a 5.57 in 2013, blows out his elbow, misses most of 2014, rehabs, pitches six games in 2015. Comes back and has 28 saves in '16.