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Interesting fact about 1st round draft positions


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The draft was instituted in 1965 and has been held 46 times. Here is how the players picked at the top 10 spots have done, in total:

10: 39 of 46 reached the majors, 368 WAR.

9: 26 of 46 reached the majors, 199 WAR

8: 29 of 46 reached the majors, 192 WAR

7: 33 of 46 reached the majors, 193 WAR

6: 33 of 46 reached the majors, 462 WAR

5: 28 of 46 reached the majors, 249 WAR

4: 35 of 46 reached the majors, 474 WAR

3: 35 of 46 reached the majors 421 WAR

2: 39 of 46 reached the majors, 466 WAR

1: 41 of 46 reached the majors, 733 WAR

Now remember, there are a lot of players drafted in the last 5 years or so who haven't reached the majors yet, but will. And, there are guys drafted in the last 15-20 years who are still playing and accumulating WAR. Even so, if you got 20 WAR out of the overall no. 1 pick, or 15 WAR out of picks 2-6, you'd be ahead of the game.

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That list would make more sense if numbers 5 and 10 were reversed. At first glance I figured a few players skewed the WAR for the tenth pick then I saw the significantly higher percentage to make it to the big leagues.

It does show a pretty clearly how much an advantage it is, even in the baseball draft, to pick high in the first round.

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That list would make more sense if numbers 5 and 10 were reversed. At first glance I figured a few players skewed the WAR for the tenth pick then I saw the significantly higher percentage to make it to the big leagues.

It does show a pretty clearly how much an advantage it is, even in the baseball draft, to pick high in the first round.

Top players picked no. 10:

McGwire 63 WAR

Ventura 55 WAR

Simmons 50 WAR

Chavez 36 WAR

Wallach 31 WAR

Top players picked no. 5:

Gooden 50 WAR

Drew 44 WAR

Murphy 44 WAR

Teixeira 32 WAR

McDowell 27 WAR

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I would be more interested in just the last 15-20 years. I imagine that scouting hasn't gotten much better and drafting has become more accurate.

Still interesting though.

It would be easy enough to do, but would require more time than I feel like spending. Just eyeballing the list (players worth 20+ WAR in parentheses):

1. ~220 WAR in the last 20 years (16 of 20 reached the majors; 2 of last 3 haven't yet) (ARod 99, Mauer 33, Erstad 27)

2. ~164 WAR in the last 20 years (16 of 20 reached the majors; 3 of last 4 haven't yet) (Drew 44, Beckett 24)

3. ~89 WAR in the last 20 years (13 of 20 reached the majors; last 4 haven't yet) (Glaus 34, J. Cruz 22)

4. ~70 WAR in the last 20 years (15 of 20 reached the majors; 3 of last 4 haven't yet) (K. Wood 24)

5. ~ 113 WAR in the last 20 years (14 of 20 reached the majors; the last 2 haven't yet) (Drew 44, Teixeira 32, Wells 22)

6. ~ 88 WAR in the last 20 years (11 of 20 reached the majors; the last 3 haven't yet) (Jeter 68, Greinke 20)

7. ~ 76 WAR in the last 20 years (15 of 20 reached the majors; the last 1 hasn't yet)

8. ~ 90 WAR in the last 20 years (11 of 20 reached the majors; 2 of the last 4 haven't yet (Helton 57)

9. ~ 100 WAR in the last 20 years (12 of 20 reached the majors; the last 5 haven't yet) (Zito 30)

10. ~ 115 WAR in the last 20 years (18 of 20 reached the majors; the last 1 hasn't yet) (Chavez 36, Sheets 20, Garland 20)

As you can see, it becomes a crapshoot pretty quickly after the first 2 picks.

Nick Markakis is definitely one of the top no. 7 picks in the last 20 years. He is 2nd on the list in the last 20 years, only slightly behind Trot Nixon, who he will pass next year. However, Troy Tulowitzki is also a no. 7 and may pass up Nick next year.

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An ill-informed assumption...

Top of the draft (picks 1-3 generally) = guys closest to a sure thing

Next few picks (4-7ish) = high risk/high upside guys, signability cheap guys like Hobgood/Sanchez

Third group (8-12) - established "safe" college guys, with a few signability guys thrown in

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