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BA: Projected 2014 O's lineup and O's top 10 prospects


Frobby

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If we have any BA subscribers here, I'd be interested in some highlights of what they said in their reports on the top 10 players and in Will Lingo's chat -- within board rules, of course.

The write-ups weren't that exciting to me outside of Klein. Seems like a whole lot of questions starting with Pelzer.

  • Pelzer essentially power arm with average SL w/above-average to plus potential. No real feel for off-speed. BAL thinking about moving him to rotation.
  • Spoke highly of Givens's hands and arm but neglected to mention his footwork (which to me is the biggest hurdle to him staying in the middle of the field). Credited him with 15 HR potential.
  • Defensive questions for Adams at both 2nd and 3rd -- think he may be best suited for 3B where he has to think a lot less. Compact swing and gap power (ideal for 3B??).
  • Berry as back-end starter with upside in the pen if starting falls through. 12/6 spike is best breaking ball (also throws a slurvy pitch, which is status quo from his time at Rice). Is-what-he-is type that knows how to pitch. Small margin for error since his velo was generally upper-80s (down a smidge from Rice, if I recall).
  • Schoop still trying to find correct swing mechanics. Chance for average power. Frame probably profiles best for 3B (again, fringe-average power ideal for 3B?). Gets good marks for instincts, arm and hands in the field.
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If we have any BA subscribers here, I'd be interested in some highlights of what they said in their reports on the top 10 players and in Will Lingo's chat -- within board rules, of course.
A couple quotes from Lingo:

On the quality of the top ten

As it is, I don't think the Top 10 is terrible, but you feel like everyone past the top two is ranked about four spots higher than you would like. You're missing that level of guy between the potential stars and the organization depth. Hard to figure out where to rank organizations now when we're just starting to sort through all the lists coming in, but I would guess the Orioles would be in the 20-25 range. Great top two, some depth, but not enough big league difference makers.
Regarding Mahoney being listed as 1B in 2014:
Mahoney is slotted there because there are no better options. Tyler Townsend would be a guy you would have perhaps more hope for, but he has been hurt so much that you really need to see him prove himself over a full season before you buy in. Mahoney deserves tons of credit for how far he has come as a prospect, but he is the kind of guy who will have to prove himself every step along the way.

Those are the two most interesting things he said in the chat.

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The write-ups weren't that exciting to me outside of Klein. Seems like a whole lot of questions starting with Pelzer.
  • Pelzer essentially power arm with average SL w/above-average to plus potential. No real feel for off-speed. BAL thinking about moving him to rotation.
  • Spoke highly of Givens's hands and arm but neglected to mention his footwork (which to me is the biggest hurdle to him staying in the middle of the field). Credited him with 15 HR potential.
  • Defensive questions for Adams at both 2nd and 3rd -- think he may be best suited for 3B where he has to think a lot less. Compact swing and gap power (ideal for 3B??).
  • Berry as back-end starter with upside in the pen if starting falls through. 12/6 spike is best breaking ball (also throws a slurvy pitch, which is status quo from his time at Rice). Is-what-he-is type that knows how to pitch. Small margin for error since his velo was generally upper-80s (down a smidge from Rice, if I recall).
  • Schoop still trying to find correct swing mechanics. Chance for average power. Frame probably profiles best for 3B (again, fringe-average power ideal for 3B?). Gets good marks for instincts, arm and hands in the field.

What did they say about Klein?

Thanks BTW, you always hook us up!

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Not listing questions, I think these chat response quotes speak for themselves:

we're just starting to sort through all the lists coming in, but I would guess the Orioles would be in the 20-25 range. Great top two, some depth, but not enough big league difference makers.
I expected more Joe Mahoney questions after the great season he had, but I guess Orioles fans are a realistic bunch. Mahoney is slotted there because there are no better options. Tyler Townsend would be a guy you would have perhaps more hope for, but he has been hurt so much that you really need to see him prove himself over a full season before you buy in. Mahoney deserves tons of credit for how far he has come as a prospect, but he is the kind of guy who will have to prove himself every step along the way. Scouts just don't think his swing will produce against major league pitching.
still too early to evaluate the Hobgood pick, but the early returns are not good. It's hard to imagine a premium pick having a worse first full season.
The hope: He is working on his conditioning this offseason and the Orioles are keeping closer tabs on him, and they think it's a nutrition issue, not anything with bad makeup or work ethic. So I can see Hobgood coming to spring training after learning some hard lessons and having a bounceback year. I just didn't have enough evidence from this season to rank him in the top 10.
I don't see (Givens shifting to the mound) unless it's a desperation thing, and we're nowhere close to that point. He shows enough potential particularly with the bat that the infield is where he's going to have the most value.
I think they are making more of an effort to have guys earn their way to the big leagues and to continue to improve when they get there. Farm director John Stockstill, as noted in the overview, will have more involvement in personnel—from the minors to the majors—than the traditional farm director, and his wide range of experience should be well suited to doing that.
Ideally, I think Adams is more of a utility guy, though I'm not sure he can play short. But he can play second and third and maybe left field as well, so that could be a fit.
I went into the process thinking (Narron) might have a chance, but really didn't generate much buzz, at least for top 10 purposes. I know some scouts thought he would have been better off going to college, and as a North Carolina alum I certainly would have liked that.
Bundy has interesting stuff, a fastball that touches 95, good changeup, a curveball and a slider, though he uses the slider as his primary breaking ball now, but his command and delivery aren't consistent, and that also means the quality of his stuff is inconsistent as well. Has a chance as a bullpen guy, though based on his age if he starts showing better command he could take a leap forward next year.
Lots of good buzz on Bridwell, just not enough to rank him in the top 10 yet. He was a multi-sport guy in high school and so flew under the radar a bit for a Texas pitcher, but he has a big arm and a pitcher's body. He's long and lanky with an athletic build, and the ball jumps out of his hand. Can throw in the mid-90s with life, and has shown both a curveball and slider. Definitely a guy to watch, and he will be in the top 30.
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As set-up man could be in BAL quickly, BAL likes his pitch mix and frame to start. Not overpowering but throws strikes. Ceiling is a #3. BAL will be cautious with him.

Nice, Klein's overall package somewhat reminds me of Kyle Gibson. Gibson has the great slider of course while Klein apparently has a great curve, but neither are overpowering, both have very good command, secondaries and similar ceilings at this point unless Gibson fills out more into his huge, projectable frame(which is probably the big difference between the 2).....

Wow, Bridwell touching 95? IMO, the Bridwell and Bundy notes are the most exciting things I have read about the system. Interesting Bundy throws a slider as his put away pitch rather than the hook that I thought was supposed to be such a good pitch. I wonder if they changed his arm slot since being drafted.

I am happy to hear Bundy is still touching 95, personally, I'd have ranked him higher in my own top 10 if I knew that.....

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Agree on Bundy and Bridwell. I would have ranked both higher. That's good to hear. On the optimistic side, Klein may increase velocity as he's further removed from surgery and builds up innings. He threw very little, overall, in college.

I think Klein could go either way -- the arm has relatively few innings on it from college ball, but at the same time he hasn't had to last over the course of 120+ IP. If he holds up, it really is an excellent pick for Jordan, regardless of Klein's velo. The risk is too great for my taste, but a big pull if Jordan hits.

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Yeah, but as we've seen from the draft, any 3rd round is risky for the basic uncertainty of the draft. It's not like you have nothing to lose but I like going for a higher talent that drops for other reasons.

Oh, I don't disagree. But given the risks Jordan is prone to taking later on (looking for undervalued JuCo and HS talebnts) I would think a safer pick may be more appropriate here. Again, that's just my personal opinion based on my "balanced portfolio" approach to drafting.

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Your probably right Tony. But come on. You can't expect me to take the beating I took in that thread and then let Lingo's opinion past without a mention. It interesting, that's all. I like the starting staff though.

The only thing you can really take out of that ranking is that Lingo thinks Mahoney is the best out of him, Snyder and Townsend. Doesn't mean he thinks he'll actually be the starting first baseman.

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I think Klein could go either way -- the arm has relatively few innings on it from college ball, but at the same time he hasn't had to last over the course of 120+ IP. If he holds up, it really is an excellent pick for Jordan, regardless of Klein's velo. The risk is too great for my taste, but a big pull if Jordan hits.

So what happens next year with Klein. Do we give him the Berry treatment, i.e., a strict 5 inning limit?

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So what happens next year with Klein. Do we give him the Berry treatment, i.e., a strict 5 inning limit?

Got me -- I'm in the scouting department, not development. :)

In all seriousness, that sort of limit wouldn't surprise me. I know at least two organizations that do pretty comprehensive oerthopedic analytical work on their draftees to help determine their limits and their target climb rate. I don't know if BAL does this.

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Got me -- I'm in the scouting department, not development. :)

In all seriousness, that sort of limit wouldn't surprise me. I know at least two organizations that do pretty comprehensive oerthopedic analytical work on their draftees to help determine their limits and their target climb rate. I don't know if BAL does this.

Orthopedic analysis aside, Klein pitched just 52 innings this season (zero in 2009, 18 in 08). Even if the O's decide to let him pitch 90 or 100 innings next year, they'll still need to limit him to four or five innings per start if he's going to pitch for a full season.

I almost wonder whether they would hold him back in Florida for a while before sending him off to Delmarva or Frederick around the end of May.

This is possibly the most compelling argument for putting him on the reliever track. To turn him into a starter, the O's will have to disregard the usual rules of thumb about annual increases in IP. And yet, with his injury history, they should probably be cautious with him at first--not aggressive.

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Orthopedic analysis aside, Klein pitched just 52 innings this season (zero in 2009, 18 in 08). Even if the O's decide to let him pitch 90 or 100 innings next year, they'll still need to limit him to four or five innings per start if he's going to pitch for a full season.

I almost wonder whether they would hold him back in Florida for a while before sending him off to Delmarva or Frederick around the end of May.

This is possibly the most compelling argument for putting him on the reliever track. To turn him into a starter, the O's will have to disregard the usual rules of thumb about annual increases in IP. And yet, with his injury history, they should probably be cautious with him at first--not aggressive.

With injuries in general, you can't follow the "rule of thumb" in certain cases. For example, Spoone didn't pitch for pretty much 1.5 years. He came out this year and pitched a decent number of IP. I am sure they will be cautious with him. They do have to stretch him out though, I dunno how beneficial it would be to stretch him out to only 5IP limits...Its a bit of a different case than normal. We do need to see if he can go 6-7IP, not necessarily every game though.....

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I think you'll see something similar. Remember, Berry didn't have the strict 5 inning limit until after the promotion to Frederick. I would assume that Klein start's at Delmarva but he might be polished enough for Frederick. Of course, Berry was considered polished as well.

He is as polished as Berry, but has better stuff. He could IMO start in Fredrick, but for caution I'd stick him in Delmarva and just worry about 1 thing at a time. Let him get used to being a SP 1st, then start to challenge him more as he gets acclimated....

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I think what is even more interesting is that for all of the love Townsend has received around these parts, Mahoney was selected as the 1B heir in 2014. That would make me uneasy if I am a strong believer in the package Townsend brings to the table.

That said, I don't think it means much more than BA has Mahoney ranked at least one spot ahead of Townsend.

They didn't include who would be on the DL in 2014. That is where you will find Townsend. :D

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