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RHP -Dan Klein comes in at #6


Tony-OH

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So, he gets around 100 innings in 2011.

Then, in 2012, if the Orioles stick to the 30ish IP rule, he will be around 130 innings.

Then, in 2013, he is looking at 160ish IP. Now, MAYBE you bring him up in 2013 to get a look but let's face it, he isn't really someone you can count on until 2014, at least as a starter.

And all of this is assuming he can convert back to a starter and that he is healthy the whole time.

Meanwhile, he may be able to be up by July in our pen.

I am not saying the talent isn't there for him to be a starter...It obviously is. I really liked this pick but I like it less if you are talking about him as a starter because of how long and difficult it will be for him to make it as a starter.

With Johnson, Hernandez, Berken, Vandenhurk, Simon, Albers, and Gonzalez set for the bullpen, and Patton, Spoone, Beato, Pelzer, Egan, and Bascom in the minors, would it be worth to have Klein up to pitch in middle relief instead of developing him in the minors?

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With Johnson, Hernandez, Berken, Vandenhurk, Simon, Albers, and Gonzalez set for the bullpen, and Patton, Spoone, Beato, Pelzer, Egan, and Bascom in the minors, would it be worth to have Klein up to pitch in middle relief instead of developing him in the minors?

Simon isn't good...Albers is going to get the point where he is too expensive for the pen.

IMO, DH and JJ should be talked about in trades this offseason when you talk about some of the position players we need and the teams that have need in the pen.

The other names you mentioned are whatever...They can easily be replaced year in and year out..Klein has dominant upside potential at the back end of the pen IMO.

Now, I will say this...if he is kicking butt as a starter in 2011 and 2012, he could come up very quickly in 2013 and then just get shut down early..I think that would be best case scenario.

What i also wonder is how long do the Orioles keep him as a starter if he isn't transitioning quick enough.

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So, he gets around 100 innings in 2011.

Then, in 2012, if the Orioles stick to the 30ish IP rule, he will be around 130 innings.

Then, in 2013, he is looking at 160ish IP. Now, MAYBE you bring him up in 2013 to get a look but let's face it, he isn't really someone you can count on until 2014, at least as a starter.

And all of this is assuming he can convert back to a starter and that he is healthy the whole time.

Meanwhile, he may be able to be up by July in our pen.

I am not saying the talent isn't there for him to be a starter...It obviously is. I really liked this pick but I like it less if you are talking about him as a starter because of how long and difficult it will be for him to make it as a starter.

Simon isn't good...Albers is going to get the point where he is too expensive for the pen.

IMO, DH and JJ should be talked about in trades this offseason when you talk about some of the position players we need and the teams that have need in the pen.

The other names you mentioned are whatever...They can easily be replaced year in and year out..Klein has dominant upside potential at the back end of the pen IMO.

Now, I will say this...if he is kicking butt as a starter in 2011 and 2012, he could come up very quickly in 2013 and then just get shut down early..I think that would be best case scenario.

What i also wonder is how long do the Orioles keep him as a starter if he isn't transitioning quick enough.

The path you describe in the first post is not far off from Arrieta's. He had 113 innings at Frederick in 2008, 150 innings at Bowie/Norfolk in 2009, came to Baltimore partway through 2010. We ended up shutting him down a little early due to his innings limit. I expect this is how things would go with Klein as a starter if all went well. He comes up some time in 2013 but we may need to shut him down in September.

As to when we make the decision about keeping Klein as a starter, I think you take a hard look after the 2011 season, just like we did with Ray after the 2004 season. In that situation, the O's concluded that his arsenal was better suited for the pen, and three months into the next season, he was in Baltimore. So, spending a year as a starter didn't really slow down his path to the majors as a reliever.

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The path you describe in the first post is not far off from Arrieta's. He had 113 innings at Frederick in 2008, 150 innings at Bowie/Norfolk in 2009, came to Baltimore partway through 2010. We ended up shutting him down a little early due to his innings limit. I expect this is how things would go with Klein as a starter if all went well. He comes up some time in 2013 but we may need to shut him down in September.

As to when we make the decision about keeping Klein as a starter, I think you take a hard look after the 2011 season, just like we did with Ray after the 2004 season. In that situation, the O's concluded that his arsenal was better suited for the pen, and three months into the next season, he was in Baltimore. So, spending a year as a starter didn't really slow down his path to the majors as a reliever.

Arrieta also threw 98 innings in 2007. So, if you are talking similar path, that is only 15 innings more.

Klein threw under 60 IP last year. How far beyond the 25-30 innings do they want to go and if they do go beyond that, how much of a risk is it for a guy that missed a lot time with a shoulder injury in 2009?

Its very risky what they are doing IMO.

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Arrieta also threw 98 innings in 2007. So, if you are talking similar path, that is only 15 innings more.

Klein threw under 60 IP last year. How far beyond the 25-30 innings do they want to go and if they do go beyond that, how much of a risk is it for a guy that missed a lot time with a shoulder injury in 2009?

Its very risky what they are doing IMO.

I'm not convinced that 30 IP on top of 58 is a big deal. I don't think it's the same as 30 on top of 130.

I could see him throwing 100-120 IP next year.

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I'm not convinced that 30 IP on top of 58 is a big deal. I don't think it's the same as 30 on top of 130.

I could see him throwing 100-120 IP next year.

I don't really disagree with you here but with him having the shoulder issue in 2009, you have to really be careful.

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Arrieta also threw 98 innings in 2007. So, if you are talking similar path, that is only 15 innings more.

Klein threw under 60 IP last year. How far beyond the 25-30 innings do they want to go and if they do go beyond that, how much of a risk is it for a guy that missed a lot time with a shoulder injury in 2009?

Its very risky what they are doing IMO.

As I said in an earlier post, I think they'll go 95-100 IP with Klein. I'm sure they will be careful, and may not even go quite that far.

It is unusual for you to be thinking so short term, though. I'd gladly wait an extra year, and then have to shut Klein down a little early in the first year in the majors, to develop an above average starting pitcher as opposed to a reliever. So, I'd be more focused on the assessment of how Klein's repetoire is developing than on whether he gets to the majors by 2012.

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As I said in an earlier post, I think they'll go 95-100 IP with Klein. I'm sure they will be careful, and may not even go quite that far.

It is unusual for you to be thinking so short term, though. I'd gladly wait an extra year, and then have to shut Klein down a little early in the first year in the majors, to develop an above average starting pitcher as opposed to a reliever. So, I'd be more focused on the assessment of how Klein's repetoire is developing than on whether he gets to the majors by 2012.

There is a lot more going into this decision though..health being the main concern.
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There is a lot more going into this decision though..health being the main concern.

True enough. I'm not a doctor and I know almost nothing about the specifics of Klein's injury. However, you sometimes hear varying opinions on whether being a reliever is actually more stressful than being a starter because your routine isn't as predictable. I think that over the last 8 years or so, since we jettisoned Thrift, the O's have a pretty decent record in protecting the health of their minor league pitchers. Obviously, there have been some notable injuries (Spoone and Erbe being two), but overall I have some confidence in the Orioles' brass in this regard.

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With Johnson, Hernandez, Berken, Vandenhurk, Simon, Albers, and Gonzalez set for the bullpen, and Patton, Spoone, Beato, Pelzer, Egan, and Bascom in the minors, would it be worth to have Klein up to pitch in middle relief instead of developing him in the minors?

I don't like just listing bad/failed prospects as potential quality bullpen depth. Bad pitchers are bad pitchers - pitching in relief is easier than starting, but it's not a place where you can stick any mediocre prospect or journeyman and expect good production. I don't think any name on that list with the possible exceptions of Jim Johnson and David Hernandez even approach Klein's upside, even in the pen.

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I don't really disagree with you here but with him having the shoulder issue in 2009, you have to really be careful.

Absolutely. The O's must evaluate in 2011 whether he's an Erbe type or if he's a guy they think can shoulder a larger load.

I'm bitter about Erbe. His upside in the bullpen was pretty awesome, but they tried to force him to be a starter, obviously for too long, IMO.

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I'm bitter about Erbe. His upside in the bullpen was pretty awesome, but they tried to force him to be a starter, obviously for too long, IMO.

There is no telling whether he would have had the same shoulder problems if he had been a reliever rather than a starter. So, no point in being bitter about it.

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Absolutely. The O's must evaluate in 2011 whether he's an Erbe type or if he's a guy they think can shoulder a larger load.

I'm bitter about Erbe. His upside in the bullpen was pretty awesome, but they tried to force him to be a starter, obviously for too long, IMO.

There was an update about how he was fixing his mehanics now after the injury so he could still have starter potential.

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Tony...if you look at him in terms of just pure talent and upside, where do you rank him in our system?

Among pitchers I would probably have to put him 2nd or 3rd depending on how heavy you consider the possibility of Bridwell picking up velocity. Right now I think you have Britton, Klein and Bridwell and then the others...

I'd be more comfortable with the rankings after seeing Klein pitch for myself. I didn't catch him at Aberdeen and I'm going off other's reports on him.

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