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Xavier Avery is #5

Tony-OH

By Tony-OH
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Stotle Hangout Grand Counsel

Stotle

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Sounds like Jacoby Ellsbury is a decent comparison based on everything you've said, is that a decent comp? Speed, not a ton of power, doesn't run great routes so probably destined for LF despite speed, could be a very good lead off hitter?

Ellsbury was an on-base machine in the minors -- I'm not sure Avery has that in him, even with improved discipline. Avery should also have more power -- Ellsbury is pretty close to bottom-of-the-barrel in that department.

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fredp Rookie

fredp

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My concern about Avery is his end of the year performance. Its hard to understand how a 20 year old can run out of gas but that appears to be what has happened here. After finishing the year with Bowie, Avery was sent to Frederick to participate in the playoffs (Frederick was the only O's team to make the playoffs). In four games vs. Potomac, he went hitless. OK, only 4 games. Then he gets sent to Arizona and at this writing is hitting .180. And the AFL this year is a hitter's league. I think the league average is over .280. I know he's 20 and the average age in the AFL this year is 22-24 but if he's a top prospect, he should be performing better than this and right now, this is awful. If the kid is tired, why didn't the Birds shut him down and if he's fresh, and at 20 he should be, what does this say about his true potential. It should at least raise a question, however speculative it may be.

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hoosiers Hangout Grand Counsel

hoosiers

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It's nice to know we have two additional prospects in Hoes and Givens to be rated ahead of Avery. I do think Hoes is highly under-rated among the national press and I hope he has a breakout 2011.

I think Avery is the better prospect. I looked at the last few Os names to crack the BA Carolina League Top 20. I see Matusz, Britton, Arrieta, Wieters and Erbe and Spoone. Avery is in pretty good company in the recognition he has received nationally.

For two guys who both struck out 130 times in seasons mostly at Frederick and some at Bowie, I am a bit surprised by the differences in tone in the Avery write-up this year versus the one last year for Brandon Waring. In receiving the 10th best prospect in our system ranking last year, Waring's write-up gives him credit for improved BB% and K% ("fell to 22.3%"). By my calculations, between their two player seasons and despite three years difference in age, Avery had a better K% and a better K/BB% (but the lower BB%) while at Frederick. Avery's Frederick OBP was only slightly worse that Warings - 349 v 354. Yet, it is Avery's writeup that there is "a lot of refining" for more contact regarding Avery's strikeout tendencies.

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Ruzious Hangout Grand Counsel

Ruzious

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I'm not sure why people are surprised - especially "given" Tony's comments in the past. Givens isn't old - by any stretch, and he's the better hitter. And it's not like Avery is a great OFer. I understand people have doubts about Givens, but Avery is a flawed prospect, himself.

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Ruzious Hangout Grand Counsel

Ruzious

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It's nice to know we have two additional prospects in Hoes and Givens to be rated ahead of Avery. I do think Hoes is highly under-rated among the national press and I hope he has a breakout 2011.

I think Avery is the better prospect. I looked at the last few Os names to crack the BA Carolina League Top 20. I see Matusz, Britton, Arrieta, Wieters and Erbe and Spoone. Avery is in pretty good company in the recognition he has received nationally.

For two guys who both struck out 130 times in seasons mostly at Frederick and some at Bowie, I am a bit surprised by the differences in tone in the Avery write-up this year versus the one last year for Brandon Waring. In receiving the 10th best prospect in our system ranking last year, Waring's write-up gives him credit for improved BB% and K% ("fell to 22.3%"). By my calculations, between their two player seasons and despite three years difference in age, Avery had a better K% and a better K/BB% (but the lower BB%) while at Frederick. Avery's Frederick OBP was only slightly worse that Warings - 349 v 354. Yet, it is Avery's writeup that there is "a lot of refining" for more contact regarding Avery's strikeout tendencies.

I don't think comparing him to Waring helps Avery's case - since Waring is a very mediocre prospect with a lot more power than Avery. Fwiw, I never considered Waring a legit prospect.

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fredp Rookie

fredp

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Since nobody wanted to comment on Avery's performance in the AFL-he was hitting .180- I'll provide an update. He's now hitting .176 and has struck out 13/51 or 25+%. P.S. The league wide batting average is .289. So what gives?

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Arthur_Bryant All-Star

Arthur_Bryant

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Since nobody wanted to comment on Avery's performance in the AFL-he was hitting .180- I'll provide an update. He's now hitting .176 and has struck out 13/51 or 25+%. P.S. The league wide batting average is .289. So what gives?

He's in over his head.

He's in a slump.

He's worn out after a long season.

He's hiding a nagging injury.

Pick one or any combination.

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Tony-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Tony-OH

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It's nice to know we have two additional prospects in Hoes and Givens to be rated ahead of Avery. I do think Hoes is highly under-rated among the national press and I hope he has a breakout 2011.

I think Avery is the better prospect. I looked at the last few Os names to crack the BA Carolina League Top 20. I see Matusz, Britton, Arrieta, Wieters and Erbe and Spoone. Avery is in pretty good company in the recognition he has received nationally.

For two guys who both struck out 130 times in seasons mostly at Frederick and some at Bowie, I am a bit surprised by the differences in tone in the Avery write-up this year versus the one last year for Brandon Waring. In receiving the 10th best prospect in our system ranking last year, Waring's write-up gives him credit for improved BB% and K% ("fell to 22.3%"). By my calculations, between their two player seasons and despite three years difference in age, Avery had a better K% and a better K/BB% (but the lower BB%) while at Frederick. Avery's Frederick OBP was only slightly worse that Warings - 349 v 354. Yet, it is Avery's writeup that there is "a lot of refining" for more contact regarding Avery's strikeout tendencies.

I'm not sure what your point is honestly. Could you restate?

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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Since nobody wanted to comment on Avery's performance in the AFL-he was hitting .180- I'll provide an update. He's now hitting .176 and has struck out 13/51 or 25+%. P.S. The league wide batting average is .289. So what gives?
He's in over his head.

He's in a slump.

He's worn out after a long season.

He's hiding a nagging injury.

Pick one or any combination.

Mostly the first one, I think. He's the 6th-youngest player out of 280 in the AFL, and he wasn't that strong in AA. I think he deserves his high ranking but he's not ready for this level of competition. Hopefully he learns from his AFL struggles and uses it to prepare for AA next year.

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fredp Rookie

fredp

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Mostly the first one, I think. He's the 6th-youngest player out of 280 in the AFL, and he wasn't that strong in AA. I think he deserves his high ranking but he's not ready for this level of competition. Hopefully he learns from his AFL struggles and uses it to prepare for AA next year.

He may well be over his head but I question whether the level of competition is that high. Every organization has shut down their best pitching prospects. Hell, the league has a .289 BA. As a for instance, look who the Birds sent. Drake, Egan, Mickolio.Prospects? Hardly. Maybe next year he'll be a top 10 prospect but off his late season performance(Bowie, Frederick playoffs, and AFL), he's not a top ten; certainly not a top five. If he really deserves this ranking, then its Machado, Britton and go fish.

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Crazysilver03 Hangout Grand Counsel

Crazysilver03

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He may well be over his head but I question whether the level of competition is that high. Every organization has shut down their best pitching prospects. Hell, the league has a .289 BA. As a for instance, look who the Birds sent. Drake, Egan, Mickolio.Prospects? Hardly. Maybe next year he'll be a top 10 prospect but off his late season performance(Bowie, Frederick playoffs, and AFL), he's not a top ten; certainly not a top five. If he really deserves this ranking, then its Machado, Britton and go fish.

That is ridiculous to discount what he did for the majority of the season because of what he is doing for a month worth of games at the end of the season.

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