Heyman: Orioles being aggressive

[AZOriole]

Who wouldn't want to get AGon for Tillman, Bell, Hernandez and a "B prospect?" Hell, that might be a good deal even if we don't extend him since we'll get 2 picks. But, there is no way SD trades him for that little. Would you trade AGon for that?

Also, I don't think it 's a good idea to give up 4 possible long term major leaguers and then have to sign a guy to at least a 7/150 deal (and probably more like 7/170).

For that package (Tillman, Bell, Hernandez, B Prospect), I do the deal. LIke you said, who wouldn't?

And no, it's never usually a good idea to get rid of 4 long term MLBers for one player. Which goes along with my point in that there's a line that shouldn't be crossed when trying to fill that 1B (or 3B or SS) void that the O's currently have.

And no - there no way that SD does that trade.

[DrungoHazewood]

Who wouldn't want to get AGon for Tillman, Bell, Hernandez and a "B prospect?" Hell, that might be a good deal even if we don't extend him since we'll get 2 picks. But, there is no way SD trades him for that little. Would you trade AGon for that?

Also, I don't think it 's a good idea to give up 4 possible long term major leaguers and then have to sign a guy to at least a 7/150 deal (and probably more like 7/170).

There's a pretty stark difference in your two paragraphs. In the first you argue that it's borderline crazy for the Padres to accept so little for Gonzalez. Then in your second paragraph you talk about how difficult it would be to give up four good players for one year of Gonzalez and a market-value contract.

I think your second paragraph is closer to reality. If the Padres really want four near-ready major leaguers for one season of Gonzalez they're crazy. If Gonzalez has his best MLB season he'll be worth about 8 wins. The players you're talking about giving back will be under team control at below market rates for many years to come. Sure, there is value in having 5, 6, 7 wins out of one player instead of distributed over many. But not nearly so much that you give up many potential years of solid performance for one year of star-level play.

I think the Padres would very seriously consider a deal like that, and they might just jump at it. They know the deal is for a one-year rental. They can't be expecting a haul for that. Even if just two of Tillman/Bell/Hernandez/prospect become decent, average MLB regulars (i.e. 2-win players) you've dealt one presumed six-win season for roughly 20 wins. If just one of them breaks out you're looking at a tragically bad deal unless the O's make a big playoff run on Gonzalez' shoulders (which seems highly unlikely).

[DrungoHazewood]

And no - there no way that SD does that trade.

What do you think the Padres are expecting in return for one year of Gonzalez? I find it difficult to believe anyone would give them much more than that. Not unless they have a very deep farm system and are a first baseman away from 90+ wins.

[AZOriole]

What do you think the Padres are expecting in return for one year of Gonzalez? I find it difficult to believe anyone would give them much more than that. Not unless they have a very deep farm system and are a first baseman away from 90+ wins.

For one year, they shouldn't expect much. But if a team is granted a window to negotiate an extension, then their demands should increase, and rightly so.

[waroriole]

There's a pretty stark difference in your two paragraphs. In the first you argue that it's borderline crazy for the Padres to accept so little for Gonzalez. Then in your second paragraph you talk about how difficult it would be to give up four good players for one year of Gonzalez and a market-value contract.

I think your second paragraph is closer to reality. If the Padres really want four near-ready major leaguers for one season of Gonzalez they're crazy. If Gonzalez has his best MLB season he'll be worth about 8 wins. The players you're talking about giving back will be under team control at below market rates for many years to come. Sure, there is value in having 5, 6, 7 wins out of one player instead of distributed over many. But not nearly so much that you give up many potential years of solid performance for one year of star-level play.

I think the Padres would very seriously consider a deal like that, and they might just jump at it. They know the deal is for a one-year rental. They can't be expecting a haul for that. Even if just two of Tillman/Bell/Hernandez/prospect become decent, average MLB regulars (i.e. 2-win players) you've dealt one presumed six-win season for roughly 20 wins.

I understand the difference in the paragraphs. In the first one, I was stating that I don't think they would do the trade. In the second one, I was cautioning against giving up that many possible ML players, while also signing a guy to a risk contract. There are two possible bad outcomes in a move like that, and I just wanted to quickly address both.

As far as SD being willing to accept that trade, I respectfully disagree. If you're moving a guy like AGon, I would think that you would want at least one likely "All-Star caliber" player. While Tillman has a chance at that, from what he's shown so far, I think it might be a long shot. Nobody else in that group looks to be anywhere near AS quality. Of course, you could argue that SD might want to lessen the risk in the package by acquiring 4 solid role players for AGon. I just don't think that this would be the direction they go in when giving up their franchise player.

[olehippi]

I see a ton of people on here wanting Dunn. I don't understand why there isn't more of a movement to get Konerko. This guy puts up great #'s every year, plays a solid 1b and will DH if you need him to. No brainer to me.

If the Orioles are looking long-term for 1B/DH, I prefer Dunn (30) because he is 5 years younger than Konerko (36).

[Snutchy]

Hang on for the ride!!

oops

I had to.

CLASSIC!! Rep.

[DrungoHazewood]

As far as SD being willing to accept that trade, I respectfully disagree. If you're moving a guy like AGon, I would think that you would want at least one likely "All-Star caliber" player. While Tillman has a chance at that, from what he's shown so far, I think it might be a long shot. Nobody else in that group looks to be anywhere near AS quality. Of course, you could argue that SD might want to lessen the risk in the package by acquiring 4 solid role players for AGon. I just don't think that this would be the direction they go in when giving up their franchise player.

I guess I could see them holding out for a prospect that has a higher ceiling, but not too many teams are going to make that deal for a one-year rental. Teams make trades to gain a competitive advantage by dealing surpluses, or expiring assets. In this case a prospect for Gonzalez would be trading the uncertainty of the prospect for the more certain 5, 6 wins Gonzalez would bring in 2011. But not too many teams are going to trade a good possibility of 5-6 years of a good young player for six wins in 2011. That's only going to happen if a contender has a surplus, blocked young player, and a big hole to fill at first.

[Sports Guy]

I guess I could see them holding out for a prospect that has a higher ceiling, but not too many teams are going to make that deal for a one-year rental. Teams make trades to gain a competitive advantage by dealing surpluses, or expiring assets. In this case a prospect for Gonzalez would be trading the uncertainty of the prospect for the more certain 5, 6 wins Gonzalez would bring in 2011. But not too many teams are going to trade a good possibility of 5-6 years of a good young player for six wins in 2011. That's only going to happen if a contender has a surplus, blocked young player, and a big hole to fill at first.

SD easily beats that deal IMO..I think you are really overvaluing the package discussed.

[flashjordnk]

There's a pretty stark difference in your two paragraphs. In the first you argue that it's borderline crazy for the Padres to accept so little for Gonzalez. Then in your second paragraph you talk about how difficult it would be to give up four good players for one year of Gonzalez and a market-value contract.

Isn't this honestly the reason trades don't happen more often.

While it might seem obvious to some degree that teams should get together and commit to certain trades the certain inherent risks involved probably are enough combined with both teams to prevent them from ever happening in the first place.

[Roll Tide]

SD easily beats that deal IMO..I think you are really overvaluing the package discussed.

In Most cases the deal value wise for trading a superstar are prospects with lots of potential & years away.

1 Year of Gonzalez is not worth much more than what I've proposed. IMO

Tillman is a potential TOR guy. He didn't do so well in his rookie campaign. But its fair to assume he will improve with innings & that fly ball pitchers park in San Diego.

Pie is a CF which seems to fit a San Diego need at a low cost. They could have Bell instead if they chose. Again Bell had a bad season but it was his 1st taste in the big leagues and by my estimation rushed.

Hernandez has a power arm & can fill either roll at a lower salary. he had a pretty solid season.

Porspect.... They could choose any prospect in our #5-10 guys as far as I'm concerned.

I mentioned Guthrie & could've mentioned Scott although I don't believe these guys meet the young cheap under control for several years which I'm sure the Padres are attracted to .

None of any combination fo these guys guts your farm system as has been mentioned.

Heck I think Tillman & Jones would be a nice haul for 1 year of Gonzalez. I'd do that deal if I could add Rasmus for Scott and another player or two.

[Sports Guy]

In Most cases the deal value wise for trading a superstar are prospects with lots of potential & years away.

1 Year of Gonzalez is not worth much more than what I've proposed. IMO

Tillman is a potential TOR guy. He didn't do so well in his rookie campaign. But its fair to assume he will improve with innings & that fly ball pitchers park in San Diego.

Pie is a CF which seems to fit a San Diego need at a low cost. They could have Bell instead if they chose. Again Bell had a bad season but it was his 1st taste in the big leagues and by my estimation rushed.

Hernandez has a power arm & can fill either roll at a lower salary. he had a pretty solid season.

Porspect.... They could choose any prospect in our #5-10 guys as far as I'm concerned.

I mentioned Guthrie & could've mentioned Scott although I don't believe these guys meet the young cheap under control for several years which I'm sure the Padres are attracted to .

None of any combination fo these guys guts your farm system as has been mentioned.

Heck I think Tillman & Jones would be a nice haul for 1 year of Gonzalez. I'd do that deal if I could add Rasmus for Scott and another player or two.

That's nothing more than a really stupid deal for the Orioles.

[Roll Tide]

That's nothing more than a really stupid deal for the Orioles.

I don't value Jones like most here. I think he's a solid CF based on his defense. I think his offense is probably as good as it will be unless he can learn to lay off the junk. Which I haven't seen yet.

OK I respect you opinion .... What deal would you make for Gonzalez? This is assuming he signs a 6 or 7 year extension.

[waroriole]

Heck I think Tillman & Jones would be a nice haul for 1 year of Gonzalez. I'd do that deal if I could add Rasmus for Scott and another player or two.

The Jones and Tillman trade would be bad. You're basically giving up both of them in the hopes that you don't have to negotiate against someone when bidding on AGon in FA.

Also, I think you are seriously overvaluing our guys (including the other AGon trade you posted) if you think we're getting Rasmus for Scott and some spare change.

[Sports Guy]

I don't value Jones like most here. I think he's a solid CF based on his defense. I think his offense is probably as good as it will be unless he can learn to lay off the junk. Which I haven't seen yet.

OK I respect you opinion .... What deal would you make for Gonzalez? This is assuming he signs a 6 or 7 year extension.

The only way I deal for AGOn is if we can obtain him for the value of 2 picks or less. I don't care about the extension in that type of deal.

And btw, you may not value Jones but the Orioles do and other teams would.

As I have said before, I have no idea why people continue to want to deal a guy like Jones for a 1 year player...What is the point of that? if you are going to move him, get a 3+ year player.