AM – you have a credibility problem

[Singleton]

I agree with what I believe to be the point of the opening post -- that it's time (overdue) to see significant moves to improve the team.

I'd nitpick one thing though. "Kicking the tires" on Werth and Crawford isn't going to satisfy anyone nor will "exploring" a trade for Rasmus. There's the other thread going now in which Heyman tweets that the team is being 'aggressive" and everyone is blasting it as a non-event -- seems kinda lick kicking tires and exploring to me.

I'd also concur that its about results and not moves. As Hank suggested, if we sign unexciting players but improve by 20 games -- its going to be good enough (at least for 1 year). You can say "fire him" but it wouldn't happen - nor should it. 20 win improvement is huge.

On the other hand, if Agon and Grienke (I realize likelihood of zero) fell into our lap and we won 65 games again -- I personally wouldn't settle for "but he had a good offseason."

The offseason should be -- or better be -- interesting but its all about wins and losses and not glittzy signings.

[bandy75]

Kinda like last year when we went into the season with a shortstop playing third, a third baseman playing first, and a little league hitter playing short?

And here we are a year later with the same EXACT openings. If that isn't a failure to execute, I don't know what it?

Mark Belanger (career .580 OPS) and Luis Aparicio (career .633 OPS), also a couple of little league hitters who played shortstop. Mike Bordick .625 OPS his last year in oakland, and .601 OPS his first year in baltimore; little leaguer. Buck Showalter also seems to believe there is some value in having little leaguers for SS as well.

Tejada was coming off a couple of good years in Houston, and has been solid offensively throughout his career, no reason to believe he couldn't produce. There have been plenty of shortstops who have transitioned to 3b. I seem to recall Ripken and Arod both doing that in the past, among others. If his offensive production would have been closer to his career averages, a SS playing 3b wouldn't be an issue.

Atkins was capable of playing both 3b and 1b, he's done that throughout his career including minors and college. There are tons of examples of infielder playing both first and third. Your issue here is the fact that he didn't produce as expected.

If you could explain to us how to determine that players like Aubrey Huff and Vlad Guerrero, will have big years, while players like Tejada and Atkins will not; that would be helpful. There are indicators you can look at, but the bottom line is you can never be sure until they actually get on the field and do it. If anyone looked at SF's lineup at the beginning of the year and said "yeah, World Champs" that's pretty impressive. Is that due to the genius of Brian Sabien, or the performance of players like Huff, Burrell, and others?

[LookinUp]

I'd nitpick one thing though. "Kicking the tires" on Werth and Crawford isn't going to satisfy anyone nor will "exploring" a trade for Rasmus.

For what it's worth, I used hedging language because I know the prices (in trade chips or $$) for these guys in particular might get to the point where they're stupid.

I am ok with over paying to some degree, but I don't blame AM for not over bidding on Matt Holliday, for example. Even in an aggressive world, I'm not advocating stupidity.

I am advocating agression though.

[Tony-OH]

Is there a point where, regardless of how "difficult" a job is, you get graded on results? Maybe you disagree with the tone, but I have a hard time picturing a more comfortable set-up than being allowed to operate for four years with rock-bottom expectations and little to no accountability as measured against the success of your competitors in various areas (international scouting/acquisition, ML record, minor league progression of players, organization of developmental staff across minor league levels, breadth of areas covered on amateur scouting side, etc.).

Since coming on board, can we point to anything that MacPhail has done better than the rest of the AL East? I agree that the job is incredibly difficult, and it is not an easy task to make ground -- particularly in the AL East. At the end of the day, however, BAL plays in the AL East and the PoBBO needs to operate within that framework. If BAL is looking-up from last place four years into MacPhail's tenure, isn't he accountable for something? How about after five years? Six?

Annnnnnnddddd BINGO was his name Oh!

At some point MacPhail has to be held accountable and there are still too many people willing to give him a pass with excuses like "his job is hard" and "he's on the right track."

I stand by everything I've said about the guy in my piece this summer and in the threads going on right now. This off season is the key. If he operates like he has since he's been here we are doomed.

Grant it, this is the first off season that he should have a full evaluation of what he has and what's coming up over the next few years, so hopefully he will act decisive and aggressive while bringing the Orioles the pieces they've long lacked.

There should be absolutely no more excuses by anyone after this off season. Either he gets it done or he doesn't. This off season will determine MacPhail's legacy with the Orioles.

[LookinUp]

Yup. If AM has one valid excuse, it's Peter Angelos. Of course, we're left only with rumors to figure out how he's steering the ship above AM.

[Hank Scorpio]

So the Orioles add two or three 35+ year old guys to 2-3 yr deals. They win 85 games. The following season the players decline. We win 65....Would you be happy then?

Well in my example, the reason they'd win 85 wouldn't be because of the old farts, it'd be because of the pitching.

[Sports Guy]

Well in my example, the reason they'd win 85 wouldn't be because of the old farts, it'd be because of the pitching.

So what? What is the long term outlook on the team you said? Has AM provided us with more of a long term foundation by adding those 3 FAs? What are our chances of contending in 2012 with what you are saying?

Is one 85 win season supposed to erase all of the non activity he has had?

[Tony-OH]

Yup. If AM has one valid excuse, it's Peter Angelos. Of course, we're left only with rumors to figure out how he's steering the ship above AM.

Since AM has been here it's been very little steering outside of the Showalter situation. Am has been able to convince him to spend some money internationally which is more than his predecessors could do.

I think Angelos wants to win now and with his advancing age, I think he's on board with upping the payroll to take on the AL East.

[LookinUp]

So what? What is the long term outlook on the team you said? Has AM provided us with more of a long term foundation by adding those 3 FAs? What are our chances of contending in 2012 with what you are saying?

Is one 85 win season supposed to erase all of the non activity he has had?

And is 85 wins his ceiling? What if we're a TOR starter or real stud 1B bat away from contending, does he pull the trigger?

[olehippi]

There are a lot of complaints and much finger-pointing at MacPhail, but maybe much of it is unjustified. It is possible that because of who owns the Orioles, and possible restrictions and limits that Peter Angelos has put in place, that MacPhail is faced with an impossible task.

[LookinUp]

Since AM has been here it's been very little steering outside of the Showalter situation. Am has been able to convince him to spend some money internationally which is more than his predecessors could do.

I think Angelos wants to win now and with his advancing age, I think he's on board with upping the payroll to take on the AL East.

So, you're really saying that this rebuild is fully on AM's shoulders, be it a success or a failure.

I don't have much faith in Angelos, but I trust your take.

[Hank Scorpio]

So what? What is the long term outlook on the team you said? Has AM provided us with more of a long term foundation by adding those 3 FAs? What are our chances of contending in 2012 with what you are saying?

Is one 85 win season supposed to erase all of the non activity he has had?

If you're getting results from Arrieta, Matusz, Bergesen & Britton, then I'd say his approach has been painfully deliberate, but reasonably successful.

If your young pitching is intact and performing, I'd say it's reasonable to expect them to improve even more in 2012, sure. Why wouldn't it?

[Frobby]

There should be absolutely no more excuses by anyone after this off season. Either he gets it done or he doesn't. This off season will determine MacPhail's legacy with the Orioles.

Well, put it this way: an offseason like 2009-10 will doom his legacy. But I don't necessarily think MacPhail is going to find good long-term solutions for all the team's holes in one offseason. He needs to find at least a couple of very good long term solutions, enough to turn the team into a winner next season and put the team in a good position to keep progressing from there.

[Roll Tide]

There are a lot of complaints and much finger-pointing at MacPhail, but maybe much of it is unjustified. It is possible that because of who owns the Orioles, and possible restrictions and limits that Peter Angelos has put in place, that MacPhail is faced with an impossible task.

Is it fair to assume that the $20 Million he was willing to pay Tex is still available to one player since they haven't spent it? Is it fair to assume they have resources from many years of penny pinching? I think it is!

[Sports Guy]

If you're getting results from Arrieta, Matusz, Bergesen & Britton, then I'd say his approach has been painfully deliberate, but reasonably successful.

If your young pitching is intact and performing, I'd say it's reasonable to expect them to improve even more in 2012, sure. Why wouldn't it?

But all you are doing here is relying solely on the players we currently have...That's wrong and a poor way of doing things.

Sure, the pitching may improve but you do have to be able to hit and catch the ball.

Your ideas here pretty much give the Orioles very little chance of being one of the top 5 teams in the sport, which is basically what they need to become.

Sitting there and saying, well the pitching is doing good do AM's plan was correct is bs to me. There has to be more to the plan than that and if there isn't, we are in a lot of trouble.