Rockies vs Red Sox...Who ya got?

[gallden]

Yo Rockies bandwagoners...

uh, yeah.

I don't really think anyone thought the Rockies would beat Beckett. I know I didn't.

[twoBshorty]

I don't really think anyone thought the Rockies would beat Beckett. I know I didn't.

I didn't either. But I didn't expect them to lose 13-1. I thought it would be more like 5-2 or something. Instead, they gave up a record number of XBHs, walked in 3 consecutive runs, gave up 7 runs after having 2 outs and one on in the 5th, and used up a lot of pitchers. Of course, it's only one game and I think they have a very good chance against Schilling tomorrow, as he seems to suck in alternate starts, but there wasn't anything to be encouraged about tonight.

[Mackus]

Rox in four.

Rox in five.

[FellsPointOsFan]

I had to pass along this paragraph from Peter Schmuck's column today. It gave me a chuckle...

It got so bad that at one point during a seven-run Boston rally in the fifth, I wondered if the Rockies had accidentally given Dave Trembley a contract extension before the game.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baseball/bal-sp.schmuck25oct25,0,3159786.column

I hope the Rockies can bounce back better than we did after the 30-3 game.

[Goop]

Let's Go Rockies!

Hopefully they'll get back in the swing of things in Game 2 and take it from there.

[Migrant Redbird]

So......you're saying I would be stupid not to bet Colorado. Cause they're +180. Which translates to 36% in percentage terms.

If you could bet a series of events with those kinds of odds, you would undoubtedly make money, although it might take quite a while before probability took you into the plus column for good. However, in a single event like this, the odds favor you losing. (I tend to agree with Jon's 55/45 estimate.)

Didn't Boston win their 96 games against tougher competition than Colorado won their 90? Boston has home field advantage, and in a short series with two off days the advantage they enjoy at at the top of the rotation is magnified.

Boston also struggled a little down the stretch, while the Rockies were hotter than firecrackers. People who count on trends like that are the ones who pay for all the fancy cars and swimming pools for their bookies.

As John said, it's a crap shoot. The only difference is that, in a crap shoot, you know what the odds are of hitting your point (unless the dice are fixed), whereas in a sporting event all that you know is that the odds are somewhere near 50 percent. How far they're off 50 percent is something that you'll never know because -- after the fact -- it's likely to look as though the real odds were approaching 100 percent.

[twoBshorty]

Rox in five.

Rox in six?

No, wait, then they'd have to face Beckett again.

I think you'd better go Rox in seven.

PS. And free taco pickup is Tues. Oct. 30 from 2-5 PM!