Manny Machado is the #1 prospect

[wildcard]

And my comment was that I will be absolutely floored if that happens. I am not going to put A-Rod expectations (or even hopes) on this kid. A-Rod is a once in a generation player.

He's a Yankee. He can't be that good.

[RVAbird]

In fairness, if his bat ends up close to Hanley's, and he sticks at SS, it won't matter at all that he's not a speed guy.

The lack of foot speed is relevant because it suggests less-than-average range at short, which might facilitate a positional change as he continues to fill out, particularly if he gets thicker in the trunk.

[Stotle]

I think this is exactly where the ARod comparisons started coming from. It was meant as he's got good pop, but not a lot of speed like Hanley. People were looking to make comps to an all-star SS, so Hanley and Arod were the two people went most to, not that he's going to be the player Arod was, but closer to that than HRam.

It's funny because for me I always thought more of Tulo with less defense.

I think ARod, Hanley and Tulo are far enough off from Manny that I don't see the merit in trying to force a comp. Just my preference, but I think these types of comps ultimately are more misleading than helpful.

[Frobby]

The lack of foot speed is relevant because it suggests less-than-average range at short, which might facilitate a positional change as he continues to fill out, particularly if he gets thicker in the trunk.

Just so we're clear, what is considered "average" foot speed? For example, did Tejada in his younger days have above average foot speed? Did A-Rod? Alex Gonzalez? JMO, but I don't think great foot speed is necessarily required for a SS, though it certainly helps.

[Stotle]

Just so we're clear, what is considered "average" foot speed? For example, did Tejada in his younger days have above average foot speed? Did A-Rod? Alex Gonzalez? JMO, but I don't think great foot speed is necessarily required for a SS, though it certainly helps.

6.8ish 60 time; 4.3 to 1st base from the right side (generally speaking).

I agree that pure footspeed is not a requirement of shortstop, though quickness tends to be an attribute of most good defensive shortstops.

[Arthur_Bryant]

Easy, Tiger. Let's not forget that even Nick Markakis, who is the most successful hitter we've produced in the last 10 years, spent a full year at Delmarva at age 20, and that was after he'd played a full short-season at Aberdeen at 19. Machado has 9 minor league games under his belt and will be playing next season at age 18. All I'm looking for him to do is produce an .800ish OPS at Delmarva and maybe get a late promotion to Frederick. I will be absolutely floored if anything beyond that happens.

Markakis also played a full season of college/JC ball the same year as his Aberdeen season.

[allstar1579]

I think ARod, Hanley and Tulo are far enough off from Manny that I don't see the merit in trying to force a comp. Just my preference, but I think these types of comps ultimately are more misleading than helpful.

I agree too overall, I just find that trying to describe prospects in some circles ALWAYS comes back to a comp, so I was trying to "limit the damage" so to speak. The ARod talk has gotten out of hand already, and short of 40/40 seasons in the minors some people are going to be disappointed and "gloom and doom" about him next year.

I guess if I was really trying to make a point I should have said, a better comp would be M. Izturis, so that when he ends up better people spend time gloating that I was wrong instead of complaining of how he's no Tulo.

[RVAbird]

Just so we're clear, what is considered "average" foot speed? For example, did Tejada in his younger days have above average foot speed? Did A-Rod? Alex Gonzalez? JMO, but I don't think great foot speed is necessarily required for a SS, though it certainly helps.

I seem to remember both Tejada and A-Rod having above average footspeed as prospects, but honestly I was too young to be following carefully.

You are correct, though, great footspeed is not a requisite for a good defensive shortstop. It does suggest a potential lack of range, though, which would need to be compensated for by good positioning, good instincts and good first steps. It's early, but Machado does seem to do all the things that a shortstop needs to do well, so there is good reason to hope he can overcome the lack of speed.

[Jarman8675]

I agree too overall, I just find that trying to describe prospects in some circles ALWAYS comes back to a comp, so I was trying to "limit the damage" so to speak. The ARod talk has gotten out of hand already, and short of 40/40 seasons in the minors some people are going to be disappointed and "gloom and doom" about him next year.

I guess if I was really trying to make a point I should have said, a better comp would be M. Izturis, so that when he ends up better people spend time gloating that I was wrong instead of complaining of how he's no Tulo.

Not next year, next year will be talk of how he is perfect and ready for Baltimore. It will be 2012 when we are demanding Macphail's head on a pike and the release of Machado. Thats how it seems to work with some posters on this site(not everyone). Build him up to only trash him when he's 20 in Double A and struggling(hopefully that doesn't happen). Now granted I don't believe Billy Rowell will ever see the bigs(might see AAA), but I remember after we drafted him and when he was in Delmarva, he was the next Ripken, destined to greatness and immaculate in his fielding and hitting. Then the honeymoon ended and he is 20 years old in Frederick with no plate discipline and an awful fielder. But I wish both players the best and hope that they make it to the bigs as I hope all minor leaguers do.

[Say O!]

I don't think that Mike Bordick or JJ Hardy would ever be classified as above average foot speed, so I am less concerned about that than others.

Besides, nothing wrong if Machado stays at SS until age 28 and then has to shift to 3B if the offensive prowess is realized.

[Frobby]

Not next year, next year will be talk of how he is perfect and ready for Baltimore. It will be 2012 when we are demanding Macphail's head on a pike and the release of Machado. Thats how it seems to work with some posters on this site(not everyone). Build him up to only trash him when he's 20 in Double A and struggling(hopefully that doesn't happen). Now granted I don't believe Billy Rowell will ever see the bigs(might see AAA), but I remember after we drafted him and when he was in Delmarva, he was the next Ripken, destined to greatness and immaculate in his fielding and hitting. Then the honeymoon ended and he is 20 years old in Frederick with no plate discipline and an awful fielder. But I wish both players the best and hope that they make it to the bigs as I hope all minor leaguers do.

I think OHers have learned over the last few years that they need to temper expectations about prospects a little. However, Machado is the highest pick we've had in the last 20+ years, and comes very highly touted. Realistically, if Rowell could post .273/.335/.426 as an 18-year old playing at Delmarva, Machado should be able to do better than that. The red flag for Rowell was 104 K's to 31 BB in 388 PA. I'd like to see Machado striking out no more than once every 5-6 PA. If he does that, everything else will follow.

[srock]

It's nice to see half the top prospects and 4 of the top 5 are position players. Its been so long since the Orioles have produced bats.

[Arthur_Bryant]

It's nice to see half the top prospects and 4 of the top 5 are position players. Its been so long since the Orioles have produced bats.

No question that they have improved the drafting and development of position players. Unfortunately, the composition of the list also reflects the relative lack of progress of most of the pitchers from the 08 and 09 classes (Matusz being the obvious exception). It would have been nice to see two or three from among Beal, Bundy, Drake, Martin, Wirsch, Coffey, Henry, Tolliver etc. pushing their way in there, and Hobgood pushing his way into the top three or four.

[srock]

No question that they have improved the drafting and development of position players. Unfortunately, the composition of the list also reflects the relative lack of progress of most of the pitchers from the 08 and 09 classes (Matusz being the obvious exception). It would have been nice to see two or three from among Beal, Bundy, Drake, Martin, Wirsch, Coffey, Henry, Tolliver etc. pushing their way in there, and Hobgood pushing his way into the top three or four.

If 4 of those guys are in the top 20 then that's still pretty good.

[QBsILLEST1]

If 4 of those guys are in the top 20 then that's still pretty good.

I disagree. In this system, the way it is currently contructed, guys like Adams IMO shouldn't be top 10, but because no one else stepped up, he had to go there almost by default. Pitchers like Wirsch, Bundy, Coffey and Henry have the ABILITY to be top 10, but we need to see some production or performance that matches that ability. Its pretty hard to do that when you are injured all year. If Wirsch or Coffey would have pitched solidly this year while healthy, they'd both be top 10...