Manny Machado is the #1 prospect

[cindyluvsbrady]

http://www.orioleshangout.com/article.asp?ID=2845

I love him:):clap3:

[melankfo]

High expectations for a kid with this much talent. Though he might start at Delmarva, I would not be surprised to see him at Bowie to end the season. Its really up to him. If he hits and plays decent defense he will be on the fast track.

I believe that to move a prospect through 3 different levels in one year is almost always a mistake. Here's why. Minor league players and coaches are not stupid -- they adjust to any player just like major leaguers do. If a prospect plays only forty some games at each of three levels -- which would be the case if he's not injured at all (even fewer games if he does get injured) -- the opposing teams don't have enough time to learn and begin to exploit that player's weaknesses, so he keeps looking better than he is at that level. So the idea that a certain young player "has nothing left to prove" at Advanced A say, after 45 games or so is just wrong, except in quite rare cases. He needs to prove that he can continue to put up those numbers even when he's become a known quantity around the league. Even when the player is put at two levels during the season, this can become a factor. Notice that both Snyder and Weiters improved their numbers when they were moved up to Bowie from Frederick. Was this all because they were really getting it in gear, or was some of it that they benefitted from being transferred to a new league where they were an unknown quantity? (I'm not saying two levels in a season is too much, but this familiarity factor is something to keep in mind.)

[mikezpen]

I hope they don't put the pressure on Machado they put on Wieters. The Switch-Hitting Jesus is still trying to live up to the expectations. M. is an 18 year-old kid. Just hitting the ball is enough of a challenge.Telling him he has to walk on water at the same time is going to be a bit too much to ask.

[Say O!]

I hope they don't put the pressure on Machado they put on Wieters. The Switch-Hitting Jesus is still trying to live up to the expectations. M. is an 18 year-old kid. Just hitting the ball is enough of a challenge.Telling him he has to walk on water at the same time is going to be a bit too much to ask.

If by "they," you mean the "Orioles" then how exactly did they put too much pressure on Wieters?

Wieters put up a monster season in AA. Fans, media, scouts were clamoring for him to start in the big leagues, but instead the O's sent him to AAA. And when he was brought up later that year, he hit 7th, 8th in the lineup.

So where exactly did the O's pressure Wieters?

[Ruzious]

I believe that to move a prospect through 3 different levels in one year is almost always a mistake. Here's why. Minor league players and coaches are not stupid -- they adjust to any player just like major leaguers do. If a prospect plays only forty some games at each of three levels -- which would be the case if he's not injured at all (even fewer games if he does get injured) -- the opposing teams don't have enough time to learn and begin to exploit that player's weaknesses, so he keeps looking better than he is at that level. So the idea that a certain young player "has nothing left to prove" at Advanced A say, after 45 games or so is just wrong, except in quite rare cases. He needs to prove that he can continue to put up those numbers even when he's become a known quantity around the league. Even when the player is put at two levels during the season, this can become a factor. Notice that both Snyder and Weiters improved their numbers when they were moved up to Bowie from Frederick. Was this all because they were really getting it in gear, or was some of it that they benefitted from being transferred to a new league where they were an unknown quantity? (I'm not saying two levels in a season is too much, but this familiarity factor is something to keep in mind.)

I think you're just looking at one side of the equation. Pitchers at A ball are generally very limited - especially the ones who don't move up quickly. If he can hit them right away, he's probably not going to be challenged by the pitchers who stay there later on. At the higher levels, at least he faces a better class of pitchers, and that's going to help make him a better hitter. Learning how to adjust to A ball level pitching adjustments shouldn't be a prime objective, imo.

[wildcard]

I believe that to move a prospect through 3 different levels in one year is almost always a mistake. Here's why. Minor league players and coaches are not stupid -- they adjust to any player just like major leaguers do. If a prospect plays only forty some games at each of three levels -- which would be the case if he's not injured at all (even fewer games if he does get injured) -- the opposing teams don't have enough time to learn and begin to exploit that player's weaknesses, so he keeps looking better than he is at that level. So the idea that a certain young player "has nothing left to prove" at Advanced A say, after 45 games or so is just wrong, except in quite rare cases. He needs to prove that he can continue to put up those numbers even when he's become a known quantity around the league. Even when the player is put at two levels during the season, this can become a factor. Notice that both Snyder and Weiters improved their numbers when they were moved up to Bowie from Frederick. Was this all because they were really getting it in gear, or was some of it that they benefitted from being transferred to a new league where they were an unknown quantity? (I'm not saying two levels in a season is too much, but this familiarity factor is something to keep in mind.)

You have some pretty good logic going here. My thought was that the O's management would place and move him based on his skill level and not on how much time he spends at a certain level. But you definitely have a point here.

[OFFNY]

I hope that Machado finishes this season at Advanced-A Frederick, and finishes next season at AAA-Norfolk. Then in 2013 ................

.

[Arthur_Bryant]

So the idea that a certain young player "has nothing left to prove" at Advanced A say, after 45 games or so is just wrong, except in quite rare cases. He needs to prove that he can continue to put up those numbers even when he's become a known quantity around the league. Even when the player is put at two levels during the season, this can become a factor. Notice that both Snyder and Weiters improved their numbers when they were moved up to Bowie from Frederick. Was this all because they were really getting it in gear, or was some of it that they benefitted from being transferred to a new league where they were an unknown quantity? (I'm not saying two levels in a season is too much, but this familiarity factor is something to keep in mind.)

The bolded is an anomaly. Most hitters do not take off when they first arrive at AA. Just the opposite--the improved quality of the pitching requires an adjustment on their part.

It's possible that moving up a level gives a hitter some early advantage, if he has some unusual strengths and weakness. When a team doesn't know a hitter, they'll try to pitch him with the standard stuff that gets most hitters out. So if he can rake a slider on the low outside corner, or inside-out a 92 MPH cutter on the hands, then he'll be getting what he likes to see. But any hitter who can handle that kind of pitching probably needs a promotion anyway.

I'm not advocating that the O's jump Machado three levels next year--or that they avoid it. Just pointing out that when a hitter arrives at a higher level, the onus of adjustment falls at least as much on him as on opposing pitchers.

[Can_of_corn]

It's possible that moving up a level gives a hitter some early advantage, if he has some unusual strengths and weakness. When a team doesn't know a hitter, they'll try to pitch him with the standard stuff that gets most hitters out. So if he can rake a slider on the low outside corner, or inside-out a 92 MPH cutter on the hands, then he'll be getting what he likes to see. But any hitter who can handle that kind of pitching probably needs a promotion anyway.

Do you really think that when a hitter goes from A to AA a book doesn't get sent up with him? I am sure film exists of these hitters and that managers/coaches on the AA level have information sources at the A level. I would hope that every affiliated team has a "book" on opposing players and that information is passed freely from one level to another.

[Frobby]

The bolded is an anomaly. Most hitters do not take off when they first arrive at AA. Just the opposite--the improved quality of the pitching requires an adjustment on their part.

It's possible that moving up a level gives a hitter some early advantage, if he has some unusual strengths and weakness. When a team doesn't know a hitter, they'll try to pitch him with the standard stuff that gets most hitters out. So if he can rake a slider on the low outside corner, or inside-out a 92 MPH cutter on the hands, then he'll be getting what he likes to see. But any hitter who can handle that kind of pitching probably needs a promotion anyway.

I'm not advocating that the O's jump Machado three levels next year--or that they avoid it. Just pointing out that when a hitter arrives at a higher level, the onus of adjustment falls at least as much on him as on opposing pitchers.

Still, there have been a number of cases where Oriole hitting prospects did better at Bowie than at Frederick. Off the top of my head, in addition to Wieters and Snyder, you could also include Val Majewski, Nick Markakis and Nolan Reimold in that category.

[Arthur_Bryant]

Do you really think that when a hitter goes from A to AA a book doesn't get sent up with him? I am sure film exists of these hitters and that managers/coaches on the AA level have information sources at the A level. I would hope that every affiliated team has a "book" on opposing players and that information is passed freely from one level to another.

I don't know, honestly. It probably depends on the organization. There should be some coordination within the organization, and I'm sure that the better clubs handle it this way.

Now that you mention it, I'd like to know how much analysis-quality video is shot at the lower levels. I especially mean the shot from dead center that shows pitch type and location. Are games routinely recorded this way and broken down--especially below AA? I wonder.

[Stotle]

I don't know, honestly. It probably depends on the organization. There should be some coordination within the organization, and I'm sure that the better clubs handle it this way.

Now that you mention it, I'd like to know how much analysis-quality video is shot at the lower levels. I especially mean the shot from dead center that shows pitch type and location. Are games routinely recorded this way and broken down--especially below AA? I wonder.

I believe this varies widly between organizations. Some do a lot more than do others.

[Tony-OH]

Do you really think that when a hitter goes from A to AA a book doesn't get sent up with him? I am sure film exists of these hitters and that managers/coaches on the AA level have information sources at the A level. I would hope that every affiliated team has a "book" on opposing players and that information is passed freely from one level to another.

From my conversations with players there are very few scouting reports on opposing players besides ones given to each other verbally. It's nothing like the major leagues where reams of information are available on most guys.

[Can_of_corn]

From my conversations with players there are very few scouting reports on opposing players besides ones given to each other verbally. It's nothing like the major leagues where reams of information are available on most guys.

Interesting, that would seem to be a place where hay can be made then. How hard would it be to create a centralized secure database where such information could be stored, analyzed and accessed?

I remember AM talking about doing some sort of database work earlier this year, I wonder if it was something like this.

[Arthur_Bryant]

I believe this varies widly between organizations. Some do a lot more than do others.

I know that the MiL managers file daily reports, but if I were running a MiL organization, those reports would be just a starting point. I would want a daily video digest of every AB by the important prospects, and every pitch thrown by the important pitchers. Even if I didn't have a chance to watch it every day, I would want someone I trusted--probably a MiL coordinator--to review that every day.

Part of it would be simple curiosity; if I were banking on Manny Machado as a future cornerstone of my club, I would want to see for myself how well he is doing, day to day. But there is also oversight. I don't care how much you like and trust your MiL staff, set-it-and-forget-it isn't a reasonable approach when there's so much at stake.

A video bank would also be hugely helpful when the time comes to trade for MiL players.

BTW I think that 13 orgs now have Pitchf/x setups at the home parks of their AAA affiliates, just for the value in collecting data.