My offseason plan

[bird watcher]

The Orioles are not going to have the payroll you are constantly calling for, moving on....

They offered 1 player $140 million recently. What makes anyone so sure exactly how much AM and PA are willing to spend? They did say they would buy bats and did so knowing that bats are expensive so I have to think that when the time and player is right they will spend money. Trea is laying out what he feels like is the right timing and the right players.

His team is surely better than what we have now so I wouldn't knock it. I know I would definitely enjoy watching that team play next year. Perhaps the enthusiasm could reach levels that churn profits over the next 2 years to be able to sustain a higher payroll than we think is possible under current Profit/Loss parameters?

[Sports Guy]

This is what I would do if I was GM this offseason:

1. Offer 4/68 to Adrian Beltre tonight. - It's time to show the Orioles are serious. No more of this waiting for the market. I'm setting the market. If you want to take Beltre from the Orioles, you are going to have to go all in and Beltre is going to have to turn down some serious cash if he doesn't want to play in Baltimore. I'm betting he'll take it, eventually though the offer may have to go up slightly.

2. At the GM Meetings trade Chris Tillman, Josh Bell and David Hernandez to the Brewers for Prince Fielder (sans extension). Forget about Gonzalez. Fielder will come much cheaper, and is still a bonified threat in the middle of the lineup. He lead MLB in walks and in a down year was still worth 4.1 WAR. I don't extend him because I'll likely be able to re-sign him for less than an extension when he hits FA.

By the Winter Meetings I expect to have my corner IF solved. Next step - SS.

3. Pick up one of the likely non tenders - Bartlett or Hardy. Sign them to a 2/10 deal.

4. Re-sign Koji Uehara to a 1 year $5 million deal with an option for 2012 to be the closer

5. Sign Eric Hinske to a 1 year $2.5 million deal with an option for 2012. Hinske was a solid option off the bench for the Braves and could do the same for Baltimore

6. Sign Jason Varitek to a 1 year $3 million deal with a team option for 2012. The Orioles need a solid backup catcher so they don't burn out Matt Wieters. Varitek is the best that's out there, and he is a good bat off the bench as well.

7. Sign Jerry Hairston to a 1 year 2.5 million deal to backup the middle IF spots.

8. Sign George Sherrill to a minor league deal with a ST invite after he's non-tendered. Sherrill got lit up against RH hitters but was still excellent vs. LH hitters. I think he could be this year's Ohman.

9. Trade Mike Gonzalez to the Yankees for AJ Burnett and $10 million. The Yankees need a LH reliever and the Orioles need a SP. I think Burnett will do better getting out of NY and he's wanted to pitch in Baltimore. Gonzalez isn't going to be worth the salary the Orioles are paying him. Burnett would be about $13 million a year, which would be about the going rate for a SP with his background.

Your 2011 Orioles:

Lineup:

2B Roberts

RF Markakis

3B Beltre

1B Fielder

CF Jones

DH Scott

C Wieters

LF Pie

SS Hardy/Bartlett

Bench:

OF Reimold

IF Hinske

C Varitek

IF Hairston

Rotation:

SP Guthrie

SP Matusz

SP Burnett

SP Bergesen

SP Arrieta

Bullpen:

LR Patton

MR Hoey

MR Berken

MR Sherrill

MR VandenHurk

SU Johnson

CL Uehara

That team is a 90 game winner on paper IMO and the only huge contract you give out is for Beltre at 4/68. Eventually Fielder will have to be re-signed, but you will already have Beltre and the core of the lineup under contract. You might need to still pick up another arm for the bullpen but that's about it until next offseason.

It's these kinds of moves that the Orioles need to make to set themselves up to be a winner. They probably won't make the playoffs in 2011, but might be able to if all goes right, and they won't have to add much at all before 2012 to finally be a playoff team.

1) That trade will not get us Fielder IMO...Its very easy to beat that. The Giants could offer Sanchez straight up and beat that offer.

2) Your payroll is too much for 2011...You may not want to hear that..you may want to say they can spend more but again, you are wrong. The payroll you have there is just over 100 million...its just not going to get to that level.

3) The BP sucks and could be a big reason that prevents you from winning 90 games.

[AZOriole]

1) That trade will not get us Fielder IMO...Its very easy to beat that. The Giants could offer Sanchez straight up and beat that offer.

2) Your payroll is too much for 2011...You may not want to hear that..you may want to say they can spend more but again, you are wrong. The payroll you have there is just over 100 million...its just not going to get to that level.

3) The BP sucks and could be a big reason that prevents you from winning 90 games.

The thing is - 90 wins doesn't win the East. Hell, it doesn't sniff 2nd place in the East. What's the point of shooting for 90 wins when all that gets you is the 2nd loser in the East?

[Sports Guy]

The thing is - 90 wins doesn't win the East. Hell, it doesn't sniff 2nd place in the East. What's the point of shooting for 90 wins when all that gets you is the 2nd loser in the East?

Well, you have to shoot for something next year...its not realistic to think they can/will contend.

[crawjo]

I like the idea of going all in on Beltre, but I really don't think that the proposed trade for Fielder would be enough. Tillman, Bell, and Hernandez sounds mainly like you are giving the Brewers scraps from our minor league system and expecting them to part with a valuable commodity. I just don't see it happening.

I'm not a big fan of taking on Burnett's contract, but I admit it's a move that could possibly work out. I'm not sure what the Yankees would want to do, however. If they trade Burnett, and then even assuming they get Lee, who would be in their rotation next year? You'd have Lee, Sabathia, Hughes, maybe Pettitte if he comes back, and then random fifth starter? I think they keep Burnett.

Finally, though I don't think that proposed team is as good as you say it is. Beltre is likely to regress offensively. Jones and Wieters have yet to live up to their offensive potential. Markakis seems to be turning into a meandering middle-of-the-road bat for a corner outfielder. Roberts is probably injury prone. The offense isn't that good.

The pitching is just as problematic. The bullpen is thin, and your #1 starter is Guthrie. How on earth would this team win 90 games? It requires way too rosy a scenario to push them that far.

That said, the team is better than the one we will probably end up with for 2011, so I'll give you that.

[AZOriole]

Well, you have to shoot for something next year...its not realistic to think they can/will contend.

Agreed - but assuming that the O's can re-sign Fielder in free agency is foolish. With the recent history of FA and the O's, nothing leads me to believe this would happen.

And Burnett? Big time pass.

[tilgaham]

That team could be a 95 game winner or a 75 game winner, depending on how the young pitching played out.

Ton of uncertainty there for such a high payroll.

[MrOrange82]

Agreed - but assuming that the O's can re-sign Fielder in free agency is foolish. With the recent history of FA and the O's, nothing leads me to believe this would happen.

And Burnett? Big time pass.

And why on Earth would they be able to re-sign Fielder as a FA for less than the cost of an extension? That's almost like Trea saying that he's banking on Fielder having a 2011 as underwhelming as Fielder's 2010. Nonsensical. IF Fielder rebounds and has a big year, his FA price would be extremely high. If he flops (flaps...flapjacks? Probably), then why would you want to re-sign him at all?

[MikeAD]

If it was possible to get Prince Fielder for a package like that, then sign me up.

I have zero belief that it is though. If thats the best they can do for Fielder, they should keep him.

[ledzepp8]

No extension. I re-sign him for 6/150-7/175.

Next year he'll cost about $15 million with arbitration.

This makes no sense. If you're not going to extend him, then why trade valuable players for him? If all you're going to do is sign him as a FA anyhow, then just wait until he's a FA.

[Sports Guy]

And why on Earth would they be able to re-sign Fielder as a FA for less than the cost of an extension? That's almost like Trea saying that he's banking on Fielder having a 2011 as underwhelming as Fielder's 2010. Nonsensical. IF Fielder rebounds and has a big year, his FA price would be extremely high. If he flops (flaps...flapjacks? Probably), then why would you want to re-sign him at all?

Because if you sign him to an extension, that means he isn't going to be able to test free agency.

But, if he enters free agency, he may see that his value is more in his and Boras' mind than what reality is.

[MrOrange82]

Because if you sign him to an extension, that means he isn't going to be able to test free agency.

But, if he enters free agency, he may see that his value is more in his and Boras' mind than what reality is.

I get the concept...I guess the problem I see is that either 1) Fielder returns to form in 2011 and his/Boras' interpretation of his value is "validated," or 2) he has a down 2011, which, in light of the fact that he's horrendously fat, calls into question signing him for anything resembling a big contract. Strikes me as a lose-lose.

If Fielder rebounds, odds are decent that he'll be THE premier 1B available next winter (I'm anticipating Pujols re-signing with the Cards, and it wouldn't shock me if AGon was traded/extended before then).

[Sports Guy]

I get the concept...I guess the problem I see is that either 1) Fielder returns to form in 2011 and his/Boras' interpretation of his value is "validated," or 2) he has a down 2011, which, in light of the fact that he's horrendously fat, calls into question signing him for anything resembling a big contract. Strikes me as a lose-lose.

If Fielder rebounds, odds are decent that he'll be THE premier 1B available next winter (I'm anticipating Pujols re-signing with the Cards, and it wouldn't shock me if AGon was traded/extended before then).

Being the premier first baseman only means so much.

With Fielder, its not the money per year that's the real issue...its the amount of years themselves. That's where you can save in FA IMO. If you trade for him now and talk extension, you have to pay a big premium for him to extend in a place he doesn't know, a place that is a perennial loser and a place where if he extended, he wouldn't allow himself to get to FA.

Once he gets into FA, he may see that teams don't value him for more than 5 years and because of that, he becomes cheaper in free agency.

Either way, Fielder isn't going to sign an extension next year...No team is going to give him a deal large enough to where he says, I am staying here for the next 5-8 years. For you to extend him, he is going to want Ryan Howard money for a much longer deal.

Now, Jtrea believes that if we have a big bat, that our young guys will magically become better. Its not hard work, watching film, normal development or anything like that..its just because they are better because Fielder is in the lineup. So, he thinks its ok to trade a package of players for Fielder.

I still say his deal would easily get beat UNLESS the Brewers place very high value on Tillman, which they may.

[OriolesMagic83]

Good plan overall. The trade for Burnett sounds good if New York kicks in some cash. Would be nice to get his average salary to $10 mill/year and see him rebound to a #2 starter.

The O's need a star, a face of the franchise. The O's haven't had a real star since Ripken retired. Ok maybe Tejada. How many millions of fans bought tickets, watched games on TV, bought T-shirts, etc. I'm not a business person, but the additional revenue a star could bring in would more than pay the difference between an "average" player. If the O's signed 2 average 1B men for the next 8 years, vs. a star 1B man, they would pay a lot more, but make up the difference in revenue. Did anyone ever buy a ticket to watch Jeff Conine, LaRoche, Huff, etc play?

I'm against giving Fielder 8 years, but I would offer the best contract over 6 years if I was the O's. The O's won't be competing w/ the Yanks or Phillies for Fielder.

I'm not sure if Tillman, Bell and Hernandez is enough to get Fielder, especially now that it looks doubtful that Bell is ML starter. I hope the O's at least explore a trade.

[Robbie]

Good plan overall. The trade for Burnett sounds good if New York kicks in some cash. Would be nice to get his average salary to $10 mill/year and see him rebound to a #2 starter.

The O's need a star, a face of the franchise. The O's haven't had a real star since Ripken retired. Ok maybe Tejada. How many millions of fans bought tickets, watched games on TV, bought T-shirts, etc. I'm not a business person, but the additional revenue a star could bring in would more than pay the difference between an "average" player. If the O's signed 2 average 1B men for the next 8 years, vs. a star 1B man, they would pay a lot more, but make up the difference in revenue. Did anyone ever buy a ticket to watch Jeff Conine, LaRoche, Huff, etc play?

I'm against giving Fielder 8 years, but I would offer the best contract over 6 years if I was the O's. The O's won't be competing w/ the Yanks or Phillies for Fielder.

I'm not sure if Tillman, Bell and Hernandez is enough to get Fielder, especially now that it looks doubtful that Bell is ML starter. I hope the O's at least explore a trade.

How many more people do you think A-Gon or Feilder would bring to this team Ceteris paribus. So that is is not factoring the people you have to trade way for him. And lets assume that after that the Orioles are Orioles are and 85 win team with him which i don't think they will be.