My offseason plan

[Sports Guy]

I think you're getting a little carried away with that comparison. Overpaying by millions of dollars for 40 HR's and 100 RBI's per season is a lot different than paying $4.5M for nothing.

Not really...The Atkins contract was a year mistake that is over now...The Dunn contract will likely be a 2 year nightmare(ie, the first 2 years will be ok, the second 2 will be poor) where he has a salary that could prevent us from doing other things needed to contend.

[Roll Tide]

Not really...The Atkins contract was a year mistake that is over now...The Dunn contract will likely be a 2 year nightmare(ie, the first 2 years will be ok, the second 2 will be poor) where he has a salary that could prevent us from doing other things needed to contend.

You really expect a drastic decline in production from Dunn in the next 4 years?

[Sports Guy]

You really expect a drastic decline in production from Dunn in the next 4 years?

Sure..why wouldn't I expect it? He is going to be in his mid 30s...he has old player skills and, last year, had some disturbing trends.

Now, it was only one year and maybe he reverses those trends this year but still, he could fall off very quickly.

If we could sign him to a 2 year deal with an option and he would agree to be a DH, I would be all for that. But we are going to have to put a stupid 4 or 5 year deal on the table for him to come here and there is just no logic behind it.

[Dipper9]

Well, according to the front page, the Orioles just signed ANOTHER ex Cub. Is MacPhail for real???????

[Sports Guy]

Well, according to the front page, the Orioles just signed ANOTHER ex Cub. Is MacPhail for real???????

It really is troubling...It has gone from something to kid about to a real problem and one that makes you wonder if AM really knows what he is doing.

[MrOrange82]

Sure..why wouldn't I expect it? He is going to be in his mid 30s...he has old player skills and, last year, had some disturbing trends.

Now, it was only one year and maybe he reverses those trends this year but still, he could fall off very quickly.

If we could sign him to a 2 year deal with an option and he would agree to be a DH, I would be all for that. But we are going to have to put a stupid 4 or 5 year deal on the table for him to come here and there is just no logic behind it.

That logic applies tenfold to D. Lee, though probable cost obviously leans in his favor. Dunn had a one year drop in walks and OBP. One year. How many other seasons has he tallied 100+ walks? Given his durability (which really has been remarkable), there are very few *honestly* troubling signs attached to him, and I'd be surprised if most/all didn't vanish next season.

Also...I'm taking for granted (fairly, IMO), that Dunn's four year contract offers will wind up in the neighborhood of 12-14 million per season (if he gets very many four year offers). Even if the Orioles get to 15 million per year, that's not the sort of contract that will hamstring the Orioles in the future. Maybe it means they stop handing out stupid contracts to relievers...for shame, but we're not talking about dumping 20+ million in Fielder's ample lap for the next 7-8 years.

[waroriole]

That logic applies tenfold to D. Lee, though probable cost obviously leans in his favor. Dunn had a one year drop in walks and OBP. One year. How many other seasons has he tallied 100+ walks? Given his durability (which really has been remarkable), there are very few *honestly* troubling signs attached to him, and I'd be surprised if most/all didn't vanish next season.

Also...I'm taking for granted (fairly, IMO), that Dunn's four year contract offers will wind up in the neighborhood of 12-14 million per season (if he gets very many four year offers). Even if the Orioles get to 15 million per year, that's not the sort of contract that will hamstring the Orioles in the future. Maybe it means they stop handing out stupid contracts to relievers...for shame, but we're not talking about dumping 20+ million in Fielder's ample lap for the next 7-8 years.

What lap? FWIW, I agree with you about Dunn. He had one season where his numbers declined a bit, and SG and Fangraphs are ready to write him off. If he would agree to DH, I would go as high as 4/52 for him. If he insists on playing the field, then no thanks.

[MrOrange82]

What lap? FWIW, I agree with you about Dunn. He had one season where his numbers declined a bit, and SG and Fangraphs are ready to write him off. If he would agree to DH, I would go as high as 4/52 for him. If he insists on playing the field, then no thanks.

I'm pretty sure Fielder caught a lap in his gravitational pull. The two should fully merge within the next hundred-million years or so.

As for Dunn and playing the field, I have lots of reservations...but the Orioles were -4.3 at 1B last year defensively (all players considered) and -1.1 WAR. Even if Dunn slides back from his -3.3 from last year (which I'm not entirely convinced *will* happen...first full year playing the position, etc. etc. etc.), he'd almost certainly out-produce by a substantial margin anyone the O's threw out there in 2010.

I don't love the idea of his playing defense, but if that's what it'd take to get him...