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The "they don't want to come here" excuse


JTrea81

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Of course he is.

You know and I know that he probably means this literally. When Beltre lands elsewhere and we don't hear him say "I didn't want to go to Baltimore" (because who really says that?) we're going to be inundated with post after post about how he wanted to come here but MacPhail botched the whole thing.

I don't see how anything I posted proves his point. They don't want to come here, IMO, for the reasons I posted. You can give a 101 different reasons why they haven't come here if it makes you feel better, but that doesn't change the facts...the Orioles are not a prime FA destination for good ballplayers and we all know that it won't be until they're competitive in the standings and in the front office when that will change.

Do the final two months of the 2010 season permanently erase the stench of losing that's been stagnant over OPACY for the past 13 years? I can't help but think "no".

His post isn't entirely incorrect, but the facts remain that "they don't want to come here" isn't an excuse. It's a fact. The past decade is the evidence.

"They don't want to come here" can be overcome by money and a good recruiting effort for the most part. I don't think that Baltimore is #1 on a premium FA's list by any means, but other teams have managed to overcome this in the past and have been able to land that premium talent despite a FA not wanting to play for them as their first choice.

The Orioles just plain use it as an excuse though when they aren't making the effort needed to do so.

If the Orioles were to offer 4/68 for instance and they are the highest offer, and Beltre turns that down - then you can say that he didn't want to come here.

But for just about any premium free agent the Orioles have been after, they have never made the highest offer or made the effort recruiting wise - and yet they still use that "they didn't want to come here" excuse when it was more like "we didn't want to make the effort neccessary to change their mind."

It's time to stop using that excuse or call it what it really is.

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They don't. Period. The only FA's to have an interest in B'more are ones that contenders express no interest in. The O's can have LaRoche, Overbay, Berkman, at 1B e.g. if they pay a decent return, but the others will only consider us if we grossly overpay, or they are turned down by contenders.

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Didn't he just make ~60m in Seattle? That would secure me for a long time. Once most players have had that big contract, and he has, the main goal becomes winning. One or two extra million per year becomes secondary to competing for the Ring.

Good point. However, not that I know anything non-baseball about Beltre, but many many professional athletes are professionally stupid about money.

/highjack

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They don't. Period. The only FA's to have an interest in B'more are ones that contenders express no interest in. The O's can have LaRoche, Overbay, Berkman, at 1B e.g. if they pay a decent return, but the others will only consider us if we grossly overpay, or they are turned down by contenders.

Then we need to overpay so we can land the talent. There's a way to overpay but to do it strategically and smart.

With a player like Beltre, you won't find another player like him for 3B on the FA market for several years.

Thus it makes sense to land him for more than he is worth because of the rarity of the talent at the position.

Whereas if you have a Derrek Lee, it makes no sense to overpay him because there are many options for 1B, the best being on the trade market.

But if overpayment is an option to land talent, and the overpayment will land the player - "they don't want to come here" is no longer a valid excuse for not landing talent or not attempting to do so.

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Then we need to overpay so we can land the talent. There's a way to overpay but to do it strategically and smart.

With a player like Beltre, you won't find another player like him for 3B on the FA market for several years.

Thus it makes sense to land him for more than he is worth because of the rarity of the talent at the position.

Whereas if you have a Derrek Lee, it makes no sense to overpay him because there are many options for 1B, the best being on the trade market.

But if overpayment is an option to land talent, and the overpayment will land the player - "they don't want to come here" is no longer a valid excuse for not landing talent or not attempting to do so.

Sorry, it doesn't appear you get it. Take Beltre e.g., Boras is looking for a chump team to up the bidding. Beltre wants a minimum of 15 M per and 4 years. And he wants to play on the WC. So Boston will go 4/52. He needs to get the LAAA to 4/60 at least. He gets the O's involved to up the offer, so LAAA gives him the 4/60 + he wants.
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Yes, JTrea, there is an amount of money at which any free agent will choose the Orioles over the team they prefer. When people say "they don't want to come here", it means that that amount of money is unrealistically high. That is WHAT PEOPLE MEAN WHEN THEY SAY THAT.

Do you not want to understand? This is WHAT THE PHRASE MEANS.

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Sorry, it doesn't appear you get it. Take Beltre e.g., Boras is looking for a chump team to up the bidding. Beltre wants a minimum of 15 M per and 4 years. And he wants to play on the WC. So Boston will go 4/52. He needs to get the LAAA to 4/60 at least. He gets the O's involved to up the offer, so LAAA gives him the 4/60 + he wants.

So you offer 4/68 with an option or even a 5th guaranteed year for 5/85 right off the bat.

If the Angels really want to beat or match that, then you let them have him. But if they don't you probably get Beltre.

But then you can say he didn't want to come here, and/or you've made your best effort to get him.

But if the Orioles only offer 3/45 and then say he didn't want to come to Baltimore, nobody should buy that for one second because their best effort was never made to land him.

Too often we've seen that scenario, and the Orioles use the excuse and the fans buy it hook, line and sinker. That simply can't happen any longer...

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So you offer 4/68 with an option or even a 5th guaranteed year for 5/85 right off the bat.

If the Angels really want to beat or match that, then you let them have him. But if they don't you probably get Beltre.

But then you can say he didn't want to come here, and/or you've made your best effort to get him.

But if the Orioles only offer 3/45 and then say he didn't want to come to Baltimore, nobody should buy that for one second because their best effort was never made to land him.

Too often we've seen that scenario, and the Orioles use the excuse and the fans buy it hook, line and sinker. That simply can't happen any longer...

The O's know the limits of their budget. You don't. They will offer the most they think they can reasonably afford. 5/85 seems absurd to me.
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That's because it is absurd. That's the sort of contract that sinks teams.

And if we keep thinking this, we'll never land the talent we need to compete.

We can keep playing it safe and continue to keep missing the playoffs year after year, or we can actually acquire the talent we need to get there by taking risks on guys like Beltre.

Year 5 of a contract like that won't look as bad if we make the playoffs consistently for years 2-4.

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I agree that anyone can be had with the right amount of money, but there's a point where that amount of money is just too much for a team like the Orioles to spend on one player. They're probably going to have to seriously overpay Beltre to get him, and there are are smarter, less expensive options to upgrade at third base. But I get what you're saying.

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There is an opportunity cost to what is being talked about here. There are three third basemen on the market that might be acceptable to the O's - Beltre, Reynolds and Kouzmanoff. Timing will play into the decision of what to do.

Beltre is by far the best player of the three. But with 10 teams bidding for him its easy to project that Boras will string his negotiations out to sometime in January. If the O's focus on him to the exclusion of the other two they could bid high and still not get him. A contender bids close to what the O's bid and the O's may lose out in the bidding too late in the process to get one of the other two.

Oakland has a decision to make on Dec 2nd on Kouzmanoff. Do they tender both Kouz and EE 5M+ contracts or do the trade or non tender one. That is an opportunity for the O's to trade for Kouz. EE is the better offensive player and Oakland wants more offense. Maybe there is an opening for the O's there. If the O's pass on that opportunity to continue to pursue Beltre, that is a calculated risk.

The D' backs want to trade Reynolds it appears. Sometime in December there will probably be teams bidding on him. The D'backs may take the best offer. If the O's pass on making the best offer they probably put all there eggs in Beltre's basket. One team outbids the O's or one contender bids close then the O's could end up with Andino or Bell playing 3B.

Don't think Wiggy just stays on the market waiting for the O's. There is a rumor that the Mariners are considering him as their starting 3B. As teams fall out of the Beltre bidding they look for other options and Wiggy will be one of those.

So yes, the O's can go hard for Beltre. But not without risk of coming up empty. I think the O's are probably talking to GMs about the two trades and measuring their chances to win a Beltre bidding war. There will be decision points along the way.

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So you offer 4/68 with an option or even a 5th guaranteed year for 5/85 right off the bat.

If the Angels really want to beat or match that, then you let them have him. But if they don't you probably get Beltre.

But then you can say he didn't want to come here, and/or you've made your best effort to get him.

But if the Orioles only offer 3/45 and then say he didn't want to come to Baltimore, nobody should buy that for one second because their best effort was never made to land him.

Too often we've seen that scenario, and the Orioles use the excuse and the fans buy it hook, line and sinker. That simply can't happen any longer...

How do you feel about the Tex situation knowing that we made a relatively early 7/140 offer before the Yankees ever entered the picture, and then were told in no uncertain terms that Tex wasn't interested in playing for us at any price? (Remembering what Schmuck said a few weeks ago.)

Is it a fair excuse then? Tex signed for higher, but the assumption is that the O's wouldn't have signed him at that number (or any reasonable, higher number) either. The timing of things often makes it tough to nail down what factors are to blame in situations such as these, especially if we bow out early, with the highest standing offer (like we did for Tex).

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It is my hope that there are some quality Free Agents who know Buck and believe in his ability to produce a winner in Baltimore who would want to play for him.

Further, I'm hoping that the results he helped the team to produce after he took over last season, the quality coaches he is bringing in (who also have their supporters among the ML players), the facility upgrades the O's are making in Florida and OPACY, etc. can be used to point to an organization on the upswing.

If the O's can couple these things with offering the best deal, not just a "competitive" deal (whatever that means), then I'm hoping they can land a top FA or two.

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