Heyman via twitter: O's after Konerko

[ShaneDawg85]

I don't see how he'd come here when he had the chance to do so years ago, and stayed in Chicago for less money, assuming the story was true. I'm inclined to believe he either stays in Chicago, and/or goes where he has the best chance to win and make the most money. We know the former isn't the Orioles, and the latter likely only holds true up to a certain point.

[clapdiddy]

Not a fan of this move. I wouldn't be upset if we got Konerko, but I think we need to think more "out of the box" to get a first baseman.

[Art Wing]

Exactly. He's a 35 YO coming off a career year. How can that not raise red flags?

His age scares me as well but looking at the numbers there is no sign of decline yet. I'd love to have him but only for 2 years. I think someone offers him 3.

[RVAbird]

Limited defensively, 35 years old, coming off a career year and looking for a multi-year deal. Doesn't seem like a wise investment to me.

It's one of those situations where you could get 100+ HRs and 9-10 WAR over a three year deal or he could slow down with injuries next year and mostly flame out for the rest of the contract.

Either way, sounds like mostly speculation coupled with the fact that Andy Mac has made it clear that he wants a bat for the corner infield and will consider all of the big FA.

[GoldGlove21]

The problem for me is that the really good first baseman do not hit the market often. AGoz is likely to be traded. If the Brewers can't extend Fielder then he will be traded. So you either need to trade for a quality guy or land someone like Konerko. I would give him a 3 year deal. I would give him a 4 year deal if I could buyout the last year.

I hear a lot of people saying we need to be creative. Without trying to workout difficult 3-team deals, how would you land one of the few stars that are playing first for other teams?

[Sports Guy]

Let's take a closer look at Konerko and see if he is a guy worth going after.

First of all, he turns 35 in March. So, you are talking about signing him into his late thirties.

In his 12 seasons in Chicago, he has averaged a WAR of about 2.5 per season. he has been over 4 WAR 3 times and under 2 WAR 3 times.

According to WAR, his second best season was this past season.

Since 2002, his "value" has been anywhere from -600K to 16.8 million with his average season being worth 9.5 million.

According to UZR, he has basically been a league average defender except for this past season, where he lost slightly more than 1 win with the glove, which is a lot.

In his 12 years with the Sox he has averaged about 30 homers and 28 doubles per season.

His career OPS is 854 with a very solid 356 OBP. In 2003, he had an awful year, where his OBP was 305 but other than that year, the worst year he had, OBP wise, was 349.

Since 2004, his walk rate has never gone below 9.3%.

He has had 2 down years in his career...2003 and 2008...2008, he still had an OPS of 783. In 2003, he had a LD% of almost 23% but had a BABIP of 226, so he was unlucky that year. In 2008, his BABIP was 244 despite a LD% over 21%. So, in his 2 seasons where he had off years, he was unlucky.

His LD% has been up and down but its been pretty steady.

His BABIP this past season was lucky for him, which led to his monster year.

His K rate this past season was the highest of his career but it still wasn't bad.

His contact rate has stayed pretty steady as well.

All in all, there is nothing in his batted ball analysis that suggests we should see a dropoff anytime soon.

However, he is going to be 35 and a drop off could happen very quickly.

I think, over the course of a 3 year deal, that you should get 6-10 wins out of him, in terms of WAR.

I think he easily gets a 2 year offer from a team that is either contending or is an area(the west coast) where he wants to be.

So, for us to land him, we are definitely going to have to go 3 years. If you remember, we offered him a deal the same or slightly more than the WS did when he was a FA before and he chose to go with the better team. So, for us to get him, we are going to have to put an offer out there that no one else will.

[Going Underground]

I think the O's are being somewhat aggressive going after the guys they want. Konerko,Beltre,VMart. If and when they don't get any of these guys,they go to their next choices. I don't think the O's make any trades till they aign a first or third baseman.

[RVAbird]

The problem for me is that the really good first baseman do not hit the market often. AGoz is likely to be traded. If the Brewers can't extend Fielder then he will be traded. So you either need to trade for a quality guy or land someone like Konerko. I would give him a 3 year deal. I would give him a 4 year deal if I could buyout the last year.

I hear a lot of people saying we need to be creative. Without trying to workout difficult 3-team deals, how would you land one of the few stars that are playing first for other teams?

No you don't. Konerko might be league average over the next three years, and he's 35. He should not be mentioned in the same breath with Gonzalez and Fielder.

There's still a good chance that at least one of those two reaches the FA market, just as Teixeira did.

Absent of signing a mega-FA, the most efficient and obvious way of acquiring a *premium* guy is to develop him yourself. Draft well, develop well, trade shrewdly for young prospects and finish their development yourself. That's how mid-market teams like the Brewers and Padres landed *premium* guys, and a team like the Orioles should have the capital to extend a homegrown guy like that long term.

It's a much less constraining method than trading your farm system for an already established guy or tying up 25% of your payroll on an already established guy.

[mcgraw238]

Ok.. I do.

Konerko has the reputation as below average defense. The value he brings is with his bat, not his glove.

[mcgraw238]

I think the O's are being somewhat aggressive going after the guys they want. Konerko,Beltre,VMart. If and when they don't get any of these guys,they go to their next choices. I don't think the O's make any trades till they aign a first or third baseman.

The question is are they going to hear the price tag on theses guys and crawl into thier shell. I think most of us expect just that. It seems every year the O's go into the market seeking upgrades and then come away with sticker shock.

[JTrea81]

Sounds like speculation so far. At least that's how I interpret his tweet.

Bingo. He's just making speculation based on the fact the Orioles need a corner IFer and Konerko is one.

[GoldGlove21]

No you don't. Konerko might be league average over the next three years, and he's 35. He should not be mentioned in the same breath with Gonzalez and Fielder.

There's still a good chance that at least one of those two reaches the FA market, just as Teixeira did.

Absent of signing a mega-FA, the most efficient and obvious way of acquiring a *premium* guy is to develop him yourself. Draft well, develop well, trade shrewdly for young prospects and finish their development yourself. That's how mid-market teams like the Brewers and Padres landed *premium* guys, and a team like the Orioles should have the capital to extend a homegrown guy like that long term.

It's a much less constraining method than trading your farm system for an already established guy or tying up 25% of your payroll on an already established guy.

I am talking about filling a void in the next 2 years, not. 4 years from now. If Fielder hits the market there maybe 5 teams after him, money alone is not likely to land a guy like Fielder who wants to win.

[JTrea81]

No you don't. Konerko might be league average over the next three years, and he's 35. He should not be mentioned in the same breath with Gonzalez and Fielder.

There's still a good chance that at least one of those two reaches the FA market, just as Teixeira did.

Absent of signing a mega-FA, the most efficient and obvious way of acquiring a *premium* guy is to develop him yourself. Draft well, develop well, trade shrewdly for young prospects and finish their development yourself. That's how mid-market teams like the Brewers and Padres landed *premium* guys, and a team like the Orioles should have the capital to extend a homegrown guy like that long term.

It's a much less constraining method than trading your farm system for an already established guy or tying up 25% of your payroll on an already established guy.

The problem is the only premium guy the Orioles have in their farm system is Machado, and he looks to be 2-3 years out at least, which is why we need to acquire premium talent now and compete with that along with the talent we want to develop into premium talent, and then draft and develop their replacements so they can take over for that talent when their contracts are up.

And premium talent is what is needed to win in this division and lots of it.

[GoldGlove21]

Bingo. He's just making speculation based on the fact the Orioles need a corner IFer and Konerko is one.

And we know that because the Orioles COULDN'T be going hard after Konerko! He is making speculation in the same manner you are right now. You are

[Os84]

How does VMart's defense at 1B compare to Konerko's?