Heyman via twitter: O's after Konerko

[NewMarketSean]

I say do it. Screw it. When is the last time the O's have had a chance to bring in a guy like Konerko who was still putting up great numbers? We need a power bat. Konerko is that. Give him 3 years. If he declines, make him our DH. Try to trade him. At worst, we're stuck with him for a year...maybe two. The O's do have the ability to absorb a potential bad 3 year deal. But I dont think he is going to be a liability for all 3 yrs.

35 is not 38. I think we could very well get 2 very solid years out of him with an average 3rd year. I would do it.

If we signed Konerko we could trade for Reynolds and have 6 batters in our line-up with potential to hit 20+ HR's -- Konerko, Reynolds, Scott, Reimold, Wieters and Jones.

Sign me up.

[bluedog]

I'm not scared of bringing in Konerko to man 1B this year and then moving him to DH next year and going after Fielder, Pujols or Gonzalez. Seems like a fairly foolproof plan for getting the O's a significant upgrade at a position of need this year, even if Konerko just posts an average season for him while leaving the O's with the flexibility to still pursue a marquee first baseman next year.

I'd offer Konerko a front loaded 3 year contract so that he's make less money next year when we break the bank on a top hitter.

[bluedog]

Paul Konerko scares me more then any other non pitching free agent.

He is old.

Coming off a career year.

He was just average the 3...THREE...years prior to career year.

Any more then a 2 year $12 million deal is very likely a waste of money IMHO. I'd prefer to just put Luke Scott at 1B.

And someone is going to give him more then that. Let them.

Konerko's "average season" would be a big improvement for the O's at 1b.

[nadecir]

I say do it. Screw it. When is the last time the O's have had a chance to bring in a guy like Konerko who was still putting up great numbers? We need a power bat. Konerko is that. Give him 3 years. If he declines, make him our DH. Try to trade him. At worst, we're stuck with him for a year...maybe two. The O's do have the ability to absorb a potential bad 3 year deal. But I dont think he is going to be a liability for all 3 yrs.

35 is not 38. I think we could very well get 2 very solid years out of him with an average 3rd year. I would do it.

If we signed Konerko we could trade for Reynolds and have 6 batters in our line-up with potential to hit 20+ HR's -- Konerko, Reynolds, Scott, Reimold, Wieters and Jones.

Sign me up.

Konerko is approaching the age that many players decline significantly. Elias did a study on players' performance by age this year, and Buster Olney commented on it earlier this season. Here is Olney's comments:

Had a discussion the other day with an executive about how younger players have a greater role these days, and it raised an interesting question: Has the overall production and use of players in their mid-30s generally declined?

The answer, as it turns out, is overwhelmingly yes. And the numbers are dramatic, and fascinating....(Elias results detailed)

To summarize, the production numbers of the hitters and pitchers ages 34-36 have dropped significantly, generally speaking -- especially in players at age 36. Players at that age in 2009 had less than half of the at-bats than they did in 2000, and pitchers age 36 threw fewer than half the innings in 2009 than they did in 2002.

Konerko may not be 38, but there is a significant chance of a major drop-off in his production in the next few years.

[MrOrange82]

I say do it. Screw it. When is the last time the O's have had a chance to bring in a guy like Konerko who was still putting up great numbers? We need a power bat. Konerko is that. Give him 3 years. If he declines, make him our DH. Try to trade him. At worst, we're stuck with him for a year...maybe two. The O's do have the ability to absorb a potential bad 3 year deal. But I dont think he is going to be a liability for all 3 yrs.

Great numbers...in one of the last four years.

35 is not 38. I think we could very well get 2 very solid years out of him with an average 3rd year. I would do it.

I sense a disturbance in your calm. Do not let it control your thinking.

If we signed Konerko we could trade for Reynolds and have 6 batters in our line-up with potential to hit 20+ HR's -- Konerko, Reynolds, Scott, Reimold, Wieters and Jones.

Sign me up.

Aaand...you lost me completely. You're stretching "potential" to the outermost limits of its credibility. Especially by naming Reimold.

[MrOrange82]

Konerko's "average season" would be a big improvement for the O's at 1b.

A geriatric with a Rascal would be an upgrade over what we had at 1B last year...that doesn't make signing Konerko a smart move.

And his "average" season over the last four years, which was one of the central points of the post to which you were responding, wouldn't be *that* much of a step-up, regardless.

[centralpaosfan]

I think some posters need to be a bit more realistic. There are two types of free agents (in my opinion).

First you have the studs who have waited patiently to become eligible for free agency and now want their payday The Orioles won't even sniff these types of players (Lee, Crawford).

The other type of free agent is a player who is considered past their prime a bit and their original team has someone younger in the organization or has intentions of signing a younger replacement. This is the type of free agent the Orioles may have a shot at.

I think it's silly to sit back and nitpick what is wrong with the names that are popping up on the Orioles hot stove. Yes, all of these guys have marks against them. That is why they are free agents and the Orioles have a shot at them.

[RVAbird]

Konerko's "average season" would be a big improvement for the O's at 1b.

True, but Konerko's "average season" is average. 1.9 WAR on average over his 12 full time seasons, 2.6 WAR per 162 games. 2.4 WAR three year average (heavily weighted by last year's career season).

He's a solid player, but comes with a lot of volatility risk. He's not someone I think we should lose a pick for and commit to through age 37.

[RVAbird]

I think some posters need to be a bit more realistic. There are two types of free agents (in my opinion).

First you have the studs who have waited patiently to become eligible for free agency and now want their payday The Orioles won't even sniff these types of players (Lee, Crawford).

The other type of free agent is a player who is considered past their prime a bit and their original team has someone younger in the organization or has intentions of signing a younger replacement. This is the type of free agent the Orioles may have a shot at.

I think it's silly to sit back and nitpick what is wrong with the names that are popping up on the Orioles hot stove. Yes, all of these guys have marks against them. That is why they are free agents and the Orioles have a shot at them.

This is obviously simplistic and leaves out some other types of FAs, but I understand your point. I do advocate going after this type of player.

But, in Konerko's case, there are guys who are just as good as him, will require less money and fewer years, might carry less risk and won't cost a draft pick. He just isn't a smart option.

[Brendan25]

So who would you take instead? Realistically.

Victor Martinez, Adam Dunn, or Adam LaRoche. In my opinion if the O's don't get one of those three, they failed this offseason.

[Dipper9]

Victor Martinez, Adam Dunn, or Adam LaRoche. In my opinion if the O's don't get one of those three, they failed this offseason.

"Only the Sith deal in absolutes."

Pretty definitive statement there. So if the Orioles sign Beltre, Pena, and Werth, it would be a failed offseason?????

[RVAbird]

Victor Martinez, Adam Dunn, or Adam LaRoche. In my opinion if the O's don't get one of those three, they failed this offseason.

VMart on a 4/50 deal is just as bad as Konerko on a 3/36 deal.

Dunn the 1B on a 4/50 or even 3/40 deal is just as bad as Konerko on a 3/36 deal.

[Three Run Homer]

I think Dunn is the best first baseman available in free agency (even considering his awful defense), because his bat is the surest thing. Konerko is probably second.

But neither Dunn nor Konerko is so much better than Lance Berkman to justify giving up our second round pick.

[MrOrange82]

So who would you take instead? Realistically.

I'm an Adam Dunn advocate, mostly because of the cascade effect I think he'd have on other players in the lineup (especially if someone like Beltre or Reynolds was also acquired for 3B...though I realize spending money on Dunn and Beltre is unlikely), although it looks like Dunn may end up with the Tigers.

After Dunn, I don't really like the available options...maybe D. Lee (given that he winds up cheaper than Konerko). I'd say trade or 1 year stopgap with a mind towards throwing the kitchen sink at one of next year's FA first basemen.

[Brendan25]

"Only the Sith deal in absolutes."

Pretty definitive statement there. So if the Orioles sign Beltre, Pena, and Werth, it would be a failed offseason?????

They aren't going to get Werth. I don't want Pena. Beltre would be good but that still leaves a hole at 1B. If we got someone like Beltre and resigned Wigginton then I would be happy. I'd rather have Wigginton at 1st next year then someone like Pena or Berkman to be honest.