Justin Upton

[e16bball]

I know Upton's only 23 years old, but we're still talking about a guy who's put up a .763 OPS on the road the last three years. Put him up against AL East pitching for half his ABs and I have to think he'd give us lower overall numbers than Adam Jones has up to now. He does seem to have good splits against lefties, but other than that I don't see what he brings to the table that's worth a package of our young pitching.

Might the home/away splits have something to do with the fact that he plays about 1/3 of his away games in SD, SF, and LAD? Matt Holliday got slammed on this board for his home/away splits...hasn't really turned out to be a big deal. Or any kind of a deal, actually. He's mauling the ball outside of Coors.

Upton may be the most talented young OF in baseball. The only guys in the same ballpark are probably Heyward and Stanton, and you couldn't get either of those two for all the tea in China. And aside from talent, at ages 22-23 he was worth 7.7 wins over two seasons. Which would have made him the most valuable player on our team...by two full wins. And he's under control for 5 years at a reasonable price.

I guess my question is, if you can't justify trading our pitching (and non-Matusz pitching at that, as has been suggested by basically every poster in this thread) for Justin Upton, for whom can you justify it?

[El Gordo]

I'm a firm believer that good pitching wins. I am not giving up my best pitching for a bat that may or may not be superior. See Giants, SF, 2010.

[e16bball]

I'm a firm believer that good pitching wins. I am not giving up my best pitching for a bat that may or may not be superior. See Giants, SF, 2010.

The Giants are a good example of that point, to be sure.

Then again, the 3 previous champions all hit the bejeezus out of the ball. But see[/i] Yankees, NY, 2009; Phillies, PHI, 2008; Red Sox, BOS, 2007.

There's more than one way to skin a cat. Upton has demonstrated legitimate superstar upside. Arrieta and Tillman, for example, have thus far demonstrated...not much at the ML level. Obviously, we can hope for improvement out of them, given their young age. But Upton is 1.5 years younger than Arrieta and only about 8 months older than Tillman...why wouldn't we have a similar expectation for improvement from him?

I think the problem here is that people aren't properly valuing what Upton has done at his age. Per B-R, 33 players have put up more WAR at ages 21 and 22 than Upton has...in the history of the sport. Of those 33 players, 26 are currently in the HOF or are surefire locks to be there one day. Of active (or close to active) players, only Andruw Jones, Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, and Ken Griffey Jr. are ahead of him on that list.

[ShoelesJoe]

Might the home/away splits have something to do with the fact that he plays about 1/3 of his away games in SD, SF, and LAD?

Last three years:

Petco (SD) 76 ABs -- .978 OPS

Dodger Stadium (LA) 74 ABs -- .914 OPS

AT&T (SF) 73 ABs -- .711 OPS

Chase Field (AZ) 690 ABs -- .918 OPS

[e16bball]

Last three years:

Petco (SD) 76 ABs -- .978 OPS

Dodger Stadium (LA) 74 ABs -- .914 OPS

AT&T (SF) 73 ABs -- .711 OPS

Chase Field (AZ) 690 ABs -- .918 OPS

Fair enough.

So your concern, then, is that he can hit in HIS hitter's park, but he can't hit in other hitter's parks like Coors, Wrigley, Landshark, GAB, etc.? Those parks, after all, make up a large portion of the stadiums at which he's had the least success.

I would think that if the only reason he's having success at home is because it's a hitter-friendly park, that he would generally only be able to have success at hitter's parks on the road too. That would make sense, wouldn't it, if he was really just succeeding because he's been exploiting a naturally friendly hitter's field? But that doesn't seem to be the case. He's struggled at some of the NL's best hitter's parks and he's mashed the ball at the two worst hitter's parks in his league.

I suspect what we're seeing here is a bit of small sample size mixed with a bit of players generally hitting better when they're at home.

[ShoelesJoe]

Fair enough.

So your concern, then, is that he can hit in HIS hitter's park, but he can't hit in other hitter's parks like Coors, Wrigley, Landshark, GAB, etc.? Those parks, after all, make up a large portion of the stadiums at which he's had the least success.

I would think that if the only reason he's having success at home is because it's a hitter-friendly park, that he would generally only be able to have success at hitter's parks on the road too. That would make sense, wouldn't it, if he was really just succeeding because he's been exploiting a naturally friendly hitter's field? But that doesn't seem to be the case. He's struggled at some of the NL's best hitter's parks and he's mashed the ball at the two worst hitter's parks in his league.

I suspect what we're seeing here is a bit of small sample size mixed with a bit of players generally hitting better when they're at home.

My concern is that Upton's offensive numbers might be built largely on A) his home park being a bandbox, and B) hitting against NL pitching, making him less valuable to us than he would otherwise appear. I know he's hit poorly in some parks you'd think he'd thrive in, but as you point out odd things happen when you're dealing with small samples. As an exercise I asked myself what would happen if we traded Adam Jones straight up for Upton, as in what kind of numbers each would put up in their new parks/divisions/leagues. I'm not exactly a huge Jones booster, but my gut tells me Adam would turn into a monster out in the desert, while Upton would be somewhat diminished facing AL pitching. I know that's not scientific, but it feels right.

The Diamondbacks have now been around for 13 seasons. I know of several position players who've joined the team and then had career years, but has any player left AZ for the AL and then done well?

[PeteCanes]

My concern is that Upton's offensive numbers might be built largely on A) his home park being a bandbox, and B) hitting against NL pitching, making him less valuable to us than he would otherwise appear. I know he's hit poorly in some parks you'd think he'd thrive in, but as you point out odd things happen when you're dealing with small samples. As an exercise I asked myself what would happen if we traded Adam Jones straight up for Upton, as in what kind of numbers each would put up in their new parks/divisions/leagues. I'm not exactly a huge Jones booster, but my gut tells me Adam would turn into a monster out in the desert, while Upton would be somewhat diminished facing AL pitching. I know that's not scientific, but it feels right.

The Diamondbacks have now been around for 13 seasons. I know of several position players who've joined the team and then had career years, but has any player left AZ for the AL and then done well?

Jones for Upton would be one of the lopsided trades of the century, and I like Jones. I recognize that you are throwing it out there as an exercise, but I don't agree with your hypothesis.

[GoGoPower]

My concern is that Upton's offensive numbers might be built largely on A) his home park being a bandbox, and B) hitting against NL pitching, making him less valuable to us than he would otherwise appear

I hate the "NL pitching" argument. Guys like Tim Lincecum, Josh Johnson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Roy Halladay, Stephen Strasbrug, Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter aren't exactly scrubs. Just to name a few.

The Diamondbacks have now been around for 13 seasons. I know of several position players who've joined the team and then had career years, but has any player left AZ for the AL and then done well?

Carlos Quentin says hi.

[PeteCanes]

I hate the "NL pitching" argument. Guys like Tim Lincecum, Josh Johnson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Roy Halladay, Stephen Strasbrug, Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter aren't exactly scrubs. Just to name a few.

Carlos Quentin says hi.

I didn't even want to get into the NL pitching thing, because that is obviously just fine.

Quentin, ugh. So available, so untraded for.

[scOtt]

The Diamondbacks have now been around for 13 seasons. I know of several position players who've joined the team and then had career years, but has any player left AZ for the AL and then done well?

Curt Schilling.

[Hank Scorpio]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/520692-mlb-trade-rumors-florida-marlins-very-much-in-the-mix-for-justin-upton

Appearently the Marlins are in the mix:

Think we can beat that? Bell and Arrieta?

There's no way in hell Towers would trade him for those two.

Towers told Joel Sherman of the New York Post' date=' "[upton'] would be a tough guy to move. But you always seek out the information on what teams will do because you never know if, to get one player, a team will grossly overpay."

•One AL exec told SI.com's Jon Heyman (Twitter link) that Arizona's asking price for Upton is "ridiculous."

Morrison and Nolasco isn't "grossly overpaying" and it's definitely not "ridiculous."

[Osfan13]

If we do sign De La Rosa, I believe we have enough depth to pull off a trade.

Pie

Bell

Tillman

Arrieta

-maybe a AA arm

For

Upton

Reynolds

-prospect

[Stotle]

If we do sign De La Rosa, I believe we have enough depth to pull off a trade.

Pie

Bell

Tillman

Arrieta

-maybe a AA arm

For

Upton

Reynolds

-prospect

I think the package would need to be closer to:

Britton

Bergesen

Pie

Avery

Berry

Obviously the two SPs would depend on how ARI rates the various arms, but I don't think Tillman or Arrieta are slam dunks to be ML-ready at the start of the season, so someone like Bergie or Guthrie might be preferred. Also think you need at least one "now" top prospect, with only Britton really qualifying there (but again, that's just a guess and I have no real way of knowing).

[Hank Scorpio]

Well, it was the Marlins's offer probably. Doesn't mean Arizona isn't asking for a lot more.

Right, that's kinda my point. Let's not compare what would beat Morrison and Nolasco thinking that would land Upton.

Because unless Towers broke into the 7 Loco warehouse, there's no way.

[AZOriole]

If we do sign De La Rosa, I believe we have enough depth to pull off a trade.

Pie

Bell

Tillman

Arrieta

-maybe a AA arm

For

Upton

Reynolds

-prospect

Not trying to rain on your parade, but do you really think that gets it done? Those 4 players maybe, MAYBE, get Upton (and I don't think that even happens). I highly doubt that it gets what you're proposing.