Justin Upton

[Moose Milligan]

Why not send Jones in any package?

[clapdiddy]

Why not send Jones in any package?

Agreed. Move Pie to CF, Upton to LF, and use Angle as your 4th outfielder, which is likely his future role anyway.

[Stotle]

Why not send Jones in any package?

I think a lot of posters don't see a big difference between Jones and Upton. While I think that is incorrect, it's probably the reason people aren't throwing out Jones deals.

I think if you include Jones then the SP haul can be a little less. That means no need to include Britton or Matusz -- probably still need one of Bergie/Guthrie and one of Tillman/Arrieta.

Would you do:

Jones

Bergie

Arrieta

Hernandez

That stings enough for me to think it is at least getting close to the type of haul ARI might be looking for. Of course, they could be in a "landslide or nothing" frame of mind, looking for something like:

Britton

Jones

Bergie

Johnson

Avery

Shrug. It's all shots in the dark with this stuff...

[Osfan13]

Arrieta really headlines my deal, and Tillman is another excellent arm. The two of them together are close to Upton.

Add Bell, Pie, and a prospect not named Britton or Avery and I believe this gets the deal done.

If I was Arizona, of course I would start with Britton, Arrieta, and Avery.... but I would also be placing a higher value on my players than what other teams would be willing to pay.

Maybe that's why all of the AP articles are saying that Arizona is asking for too much?

[Stotle]

Arrieta really headlines my deal, and Tillman is another excellent arm. The two of them together are close to Upton.

Add Bell, Pie, and a prospect not named Britton or Avery and I believe this gets the deal done.

If I was Arizona, of course I would start with Britton, Arrieta, and Avery.... but I would also be placing a higher value on my players than what other teams would be willing to pay.

Maybe that's why all of the AP articles are saying that Arizona is asking for too much?

I think this is sound analysis from both sides. The question, then, is whether or not Arizona and/or potential trade partners are willing to concede some value. I would say ARI has all of the leverage, as Upton is a potential star under control through 2015 for a very reasonable amount of money. They could shop him for each of the next three off-seasons and probably not lose much from a return package standpoint -- particularly once he puts this statistical season behind him.

If I'm Boston, I make this deal quickly and without question. I overpay and use some of my extra picks in 2011 to grab a college arm or two to replace whatever I'm trading. Ditto, Tampa and New York.

[Osfan13]

I think this is sound analysis from both sides. The question, then, is whether or not Arizona and/or potential trade partners are willing to concede some value. I would say ARI has all of the leverage, as Upton is a potential star under control through 2015 for a very reasonable amount of money. They could shop him for each of the next three off-seasons and probably not lose much from a return package standpoint -- particularly once he puts this statistical season behind him.

If I'm Boston, I make this deal quickly and without question. I overpay and use some of my extra picks in 2011 to grab a college arm or two to replace whatever I'm trading. Ditto, Tampa and New York.

Of those three teams, I can see the Red Sox as the most likely to draft like that if the opportunity arises. Their front office is just in sync with all the needs of the organization.

I'm 100% with you on waiting to move Upton (if I'm AZ). It would probably help to maximize his value by waiting an extra year. It's not like they need to move him at all. Add in the fact that they are letting LaRoche walk, trading Reynolds, and not really reloading at all, it might help to keep one star around for the purpose of selling tickets. AZ is gonna be BAD next year.

Still, it'd be awesome for the Orioles if they could get Reynolds and Upton without giving up a bunch of top prospects

[clapdiddy]

I think a lot of posters don't see a big difference between Jones and Upton. While I think that is incorrect, it's probably the reason people aren't throwing out Jones deals.

I think if you include Jones then the SP haul can be a little less. That means no need to include Britton or Matusz -- probably still need one of Bergie/Guthrie and one of Tillman/Arrieta.

Would you do:

Jones

Bergie

Arrieta

Hernandez

That stings enough for me to think it is at least getting close to the type of haul ARI might be looking for. Of course, they could be in a "landslide or nothing" frame of mind, looking for something like:

Britton

Jones

Bergie

Johnson

Avery

Shrug. It's all shots in the dark with this stuff...

My deal includes us getting Upton AND Reynolds:

Bergesen (I'd put Arietta here, if they preferred)

Britton

Jones

Hernandez

Bell

[mcgraw238]

I think this is sound analysis from both sides. The question, then, is whether or not Arizona and/or potential trade partners are willing to concede some value. I would say ARI has all of the leverage, as Upton is a potential star under control through 2015 for a very reasonable amount of money. They could shop him for each of the next three off-seasons and probably not lose much from a return package standpoint -- particularly once he puts this statistical season behind him.

If I'm Boston, I make this deal quickly and without question. I overpay and use some of my extra picks in 2011 to grab a college arm or two to replace whatever I'm trading. Ditto, Tampa and New York.

The beauty of having all those extra picks. Maybe one day we'll put ourselves in that situation.

[ChaosLex]

Heyman says the Diamondbacks would likely request Bard and Ellsbury from the Sux. What's a good comp for us?

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/11/justin-upton-rumors-thursday.html

[DuffMan]

I'll have what you guys are smoking if you think there's a shot we could get Upton.

I used to think it was only El Trea who had this syndrome, but now I can see it's boardwide. We bash MacPhail all the time, talk about how we have no faith in him to do anything, talk about the trades he should make, pitch a hissy fit when he doesn't make a trade or sign an FA and act like he had a chance in the first place when we know full well he didn't.

Getting mad at someone you have no faith in to begin with is a pointless exercise and a lesson in futility.

Well said. Getting angry at MacPhail for signing Atkins is reasonable. But tarring and feathering the guy because we didn't make a deal for Upton, not so reasonable.

[Moose Milligan]

I think a lot of posters don't see a big difference between Jones and Upton. While I think that is incorrect, it's probably the reason people aren't throwing out Jones deals.

I think if you include Jones then the SP haul can be a little less. That means no need to include Britton or Matusz -- probably still need one of Bergie/Guthrie and one of Tillman/Arrieta.

Would you do:

Jones

Bergie

Arrieta

Hernandez

That stings enough for me to think it is at least getting close to the type of haul ARI might be looking for. Of course, they could be in a "landslide or nothing" frame of mind, looking for something like:

Britton

Jones

Bergie

Johnson

Avery

Shrug. It's all shots in the dark with this stuff...

The differences between Upton and Jones aren't particularly close. I don't see Jones ever sniffing Upton's season low OBP of .353.

They might have similar power ceilings...and while Jones won't be the player Upton will be, he's no slouch and he wouldn't leave Arizona with a hole in the outfield, wherever they decide to play him. I don't see why Jones couldn't play any of the outfield positions.

Any one of those packages stings, it'd hurt to give up Bergy or Arrieta and see them go on to be wildly successful in the NL. I'd almost up the package with more lower level minor league guys like Hobgood, Berry, Klein, a position player like Avery and or one of Hoes/Givens and Jones before having to part with Tillman/Arrieta/Bergy.

[clapdiddy]

Heyman says the Diamondbacks would likely request Bard and Ellsbury from the Sux. What's a good comp for us?

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/11/justin-upton-rumors-thursday.html

I don't think we have a comp for either of those guys, but I would say Arietta and Jones.

[Moose Milligan]

Well said. Getting angry at MacPhail for signing Atkins is reasonable. But tarring and feathering the guy because we didn't make a deal for Upton, not so reasonable.

It's not so much that, it's the fact that we lambaste the guy for not looking into guys like Nishioka, or the creative/outside the box ideas that SG loves to come up with...when we know that MacPhail is not the guy to do those things. He never has been.

It's like being upset at a fat kid cause he can't run a 7 minute mile. The hell do you expect?

[Sports Guy]

Well said. Getting angry at MacPhail for signing Atkins is reasonable. But tarring and feathering the guy because we didn't make a deal for Upton, not so reasonable.

Its one thing to not get a deal done.

Its another to not make calls and do everything you can to get a deal done.

Those are 2 very different concepts.

[DuffMan]

Its one thing to not get a deal done.

Its another to not make calls and do everything you can to get a deal done.

Those are 2 very different concepts.

True, the only problem is how do we know if he's trying to get a deal done unless it actually goes through?