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Did MacPhail mess up on Beato?


wildcard

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Sorry man, Beato just really isn't that good. Speaking as someone who has seen him 15-20 times in person, he's just ok.

Keep in mind you are comparing successful ML RP to a failed starter turned RP in AA.

Just like last year when I told people that S. Johnson was no big loss and got lambasted for it, I'll say that Beato would also be no big loss and wouldn't survive an entire year in a ML bullpen.

OK, Tony, MacPhail and you can't all be wrong.

Note: Just a point. Most relievers were starters at some point it their career.

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You can't just use his ERA and age as the only factors when evaluating a prospect. Beato's stuff just isn't that dominating and that's why his K/9 was for ordinary. If he was a groundball guy (he's not), than the lack of K's might not be a problem, but he just doesn't miss enough bats and primarility that's because he doesn't have that great of stuff.

He's a decent arm to have in the system, but he's not a guy to protect in my opinion. As bad as Viola's command looked in Norfolk and Baltimore, there are a lot less guys who have his stuff then Beato's. Either way, I have Beato ranked over Viola because of Viola's lack of command, but why risk Viola when it would take a team to keep Beato on their major league roster all year to lose him?

Thanks, I take your word for it. I just had higher hopes for Beato. Seems like he throw harder at one point in his career.

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OK, Tony, MacPhail and you can't all be wrong.

Note: Just a point. Most relievers were starters at some point it their career.

Yeah, you are absolutely correct. Some just show later they are better suited as one or the other later on. Like Tanaka is 100% a RP to me, but they still have him spot starting here and there.

Beato is kinda like that too, Tony more than covered it, but for lack of a better description, he's just very hittable. He had a good year because the AA guys have trouble with pitchers that are placing the ball well and I think that's what he was doing last year. He's been in this league for a while so he's learned what it takes, but I just don't think he has the tools and when the hitting talent catches up to him at the next level or so, it's not going to end well.

Not horrible, but very replaceable I guess is a good short answer. Hope it helps.

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Your case is pretty weak here. The O's need at least 5 righthanded relievers in the pen. Maybe six if MacPhail doesn't sign another lefty. Plus he needs at least two in the minors for help out during the year for injuries. That is 7 or 8 right handed relievers total.

Johnson, Hernandez and Albers are locks to make the team if they are still with the team but there has been a lot of talk about trading one or more.

VandenHurk looked shaky in Sept and might not even make the team.

Simon is still recovering from surgery and was not a full strength in the 2nd half. We hope he is better next year but there is no guarantee.

Mickolio is a maybe. Pitched poor last year and regain his effectiveness in the AFL but that is like going to AA.

Ebre and Lebron - Hurt.

Berken - recovery from labrum problems.

Hoey's pitches were always straight as an arrow when last we saw him.

Spoone - still trying to find his control after TJ surgery.

Koji is not even on the team and was not offered arbitration.

So the O's have 3 guy that should make the team if they are not traded and a bunch of maybes. And the team need 7 or 8.

So throwing away Beato would not be the smartest move.

There is a whole lot of wrong in this post.

1) VandenHurk did look shaky, but he will certainly be the long-man since he is out of options.

2) Simon will probably be the 6th man in the bullpen, looking to see how he is another year removed from TJ. He can be a good reliever, as much as SG wants to say otherwise.

3) Mickolio will head back to AAA for a 4th time and will once again serve as depth, because I don't think he cracks it outright, assuming the bullpen is Gonzo, DH, JJ, Albers, VDH, Simon, and Berken.

4) Erbe and Lebron are both hurt but could be pushing for major league time by the end of the year, so that gives you some depth right there.

5) Berken may head back to the minors to work on conditioning, especially if we sign a free agent, since he still has options.

6) The reports about Hoey were glowing towards the end of the season. That is why they put him back on the 40 man roster.

7) You talk about the O's having a bunch of maybes, well, Beato is part of that group. Assume the Orioles add a free agent, and Berken is demoted, besides Gonzo, DH, JJ, Albers, VDH, and Simon, you can dip down to the minors for Berken, Hoey, Mickolio, Patton, Viola, and possibly Spoone who are on the roster, as well as going for Egan, Cooney, Bascom, Pelzer, or a minor league free agent. Heck, Schrader might be ready to go by the end of the year as well. Of course, this is all based on the Orioles not trading someone in the bullpen that would cause some reshuffling.

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There is a whole lot of wrong in this post.

1) VandenHurk did look shaky, but he will certainly be the long-man since he is out of options.

2) Simon will probably be the 6th man in the bullpen, looking to see how he is another year removed from TJ. He can be a good reliever, as much as SG wants to say otherwise.

3) Mickolio will head back to AAA for a 4th time and will once again serve as depth, because I don't think he cracks it outright, assuming the bullpen is Gonzo, DH, JJ, Albers, VDH, Simon, and Berken.

4) Erbe and Lebron are both hurt but could be pushing for major league time by the end of the year, so that gives you some depth right there.

5) Berken may head back to the minors to work on conditioning, especially if we sign a free agent, since he still has options.

6) The reports about Hoey were glowing towards the end of the season. That is why they put him back on the 40 man roster.

7) You talk about the O's having a bunch of maybes, well, Beato is part of that group. Assume the Orioles add a free agent, and Berken is demoted, besides Gonzo, DH, JJ, Albers, VDH, and Simon, you can dip down to the minors for Berken, Hoey, Mickolio, Patton, Viola, and possibly Spoone who are on the roster, as well as going for Egan, Cooney, Bascom, Pelzer, or a minor league free agent. Heck, Schrader might be ready to go by the end of the year as well. Of course, this is all based on the Orioles not trading someone in the bullpen that would cause some reshuffling.

I see several things that I don't like about your post.

The first sentence where you say there is whole lot wrong with my post. That is a problem. You did not find anything wrong with my post. You just added more information. Most of which I agree with.

1) You agree that Vandy was shaky but say he will certainly be the long man. Why? You really think Buck is going to put up with someone that can't cut it just because he is out of options? I doubt that.

2) You say Simon can be a good reliever. Yes, he can be, but will he be? No one knows. That is why he is questionable until be proves otherwise.

3) Agree, Mickolio probably starts at AAA. He has a lot to prove.

4) Do you have some inform about where Erbe and LeBron are with their injuries? Love to hear it. These are two surgery patients that have not had any success at AAA. They are a long way from the majors at the moment as far as I know. To say they could be pushing the majors is a jump except that (could be) doesn't really mean anything. The world could end in 10 minutes before I push this send button. Both these guys have a long way to go and a lot to prove.

5) So in number 3 you list Berken as one of the members of the pen and in number 5 you say he goes to AAA. Which is it? I think spring training will tell, which is why he is a maybe.

6) On Hoey, just because he does well at AAA does not mean he can do the same in the majors. Haven't we learned that by now, Garrett Olson, Gabino, etc. What I said stands. Last time we saw him his stuff was straight as an arrow.

7) Everyone but Gonzo, DH, JJ and Albers are maybes. I think you proved that with your post. And I never said Beato was anything but a maybe.

I think everything you said could have been constructive except you started off telling me how wrong I am and then proving none of it was wrong. You are normally a very fair and informed poster. And I have told you that many times. So I don't know why you would take the approach to say a lot of what I said was wrong. That sentence way totally unneccessary.

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I see several things that I don't like about your post.

The first sentence where you say there is whole lot wrong with my post. That is a problem. You did not find anything wrong with my post. You just added more information. Most of which I agree with.

7) Everyone but Gonzo, DH, JJ and Albers are maybes. I think you proved that with your post. And I never said Beato was anything but a maybe.

I think everything you said could have been constructive except you started off telling me how wrong I am and then proving none of it was wrong. You are normally a very fair and informed poster. And I have told you that many times. So I don't know why you would take the approach to say a lot of what I said was wrong. That sentence way totally unneccessary.

I apologize for the first sentence. I should have altered it. I was aiming more at your idea that there is little depth.

If you admit Beato is just a maybe, then why are we really having this discussion at all?

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I apologize for the first sentence. I should have altered it. I was aiming more at your idea that there is little depth.

If you admit Beato is just a maybe, then why are we really having this discussion at all?

Most guys at AA who have good years are maybes. Matusz is the exception not the rule. I thought that Beato had a lot going for him. 1st rounder. He has a big body that he is growing into. He had a good year at AA. So I thought he should be protected. But I can't argue that point when people that have seen him say he is nothing special. One person maybe. They might have gotten a bad first impression. But when several people that have watched him say Beato isn't worth protecting, I have to throw out the stats and listen to the people with more knowledge then I have.

The discussion was on why MacPhail believes he should expose a 1st rounder at 23/24 to the draft. That has been answered as far as I am concerned. I wouldn't do it because there are other moves that can be made. But I understand what MacPhail is doing now.

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Most guys at AA who have good years are maybes. Matusz is the exception not the rule. I thought that Beato had a lot going for him. 1st rounder. He has a big body that he is growing into. He had a good year at AA. So I thought he should be protected. But I can't argue that point when people that have seen him say he is nothing special. One person maybe. They might have gotten a bad first impression. But when several people that have watched him say Beato isn't worth protecting, I have to throw out the stats and listen to the people with more knowledge then I have.

The discussion was on why MacPhail believes he should expose a 1st rounder at 23/24 to the draft. That has been answered as far as I am concerned. I wouldn't do it because there are other moves that can be made. But I understand what MacPhail is doing now.

I guess the short answer is that he wasn't a very good 1st round pick. I'd be ok saying that before those moves about 8/40 were dead weight, so I wouldn't be surprised if there is a lot of turnover.

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There is a whole lot of wrong in this post.

1) VandenHurk did look shaky, but he will certainly be the long-man since he is out of options.

2) Simon will probably be the 6th man in the bullpen, looking to see how he is another year removed from TJ. He can be a good reliever, as much as SG wants to say otherwise.

3) Mickolio will head back to AAA for a 4th time and will once again serve as depth, because I don't think he cracks it outright, assuming the bullpen is Gonzo, DH, JJ, Albers, VDH, Simon, and Berken.

4) Erbe and Lebron are both hurt but could be pushing for major league time by the end of the year, so that gives you some depth right there.

5) Berken may head back to the minors to work on conditioning, especially if we sign a free agent, since he still has options.

6) The reports about Hoey were glowing towards the end of the season. That is why they put him back on the 40 man roster.

7) You talk about the O's having a bunch of maybes, well, Beato is part of that group. Assume the Orioles add a free agent, and Berken is demoted, besides Gonzo, DH, JJ, Albers, VDH, and Simon, you can dip down to the minors for Berken, Hoey, Mickolio, Patton, Viola, and possibly Spoone who are on the roster, as well as going for Egan, Cooney, Bascom, Pelzer, or a minor league free agent. Heck, Schrader might be ready to go by the end of the year as well. Of course, this is all based on the Orioles not trading someone in the bullpen that would cause some reshuffling.

This is a GROSS bullpen. DH is the only one I have any faith in.

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Regarding all of this talk about protecting fringe prospects on the roster, I went back and did a quick look at the roster additions over the last few years.

In 2010, we add Britton, Mahoney, and Angle. In 2009, we added Hughes, Bell, Snyder, Florimon, Lebron, and Erbe. In 2008, we added Spoone, Bergesen, Reimold, Perez, and Hernandez. In 2007, we added Deza and McCrory.

I have bolded the fringe prospects.

Deza (2007) and Hughes (2009) were removed after one season on the 40 man roster. Perez (2008) was removed shortly into his second year on the roster.

While McCrory couldn't transition to the majors, he looked like a decent prospect at the time. Lebron was looking amazing at the end of his 2009 season. Really, Florimon has been the only question mark on the roster, as he wasn't a top prospect, but mind you, a year ago, we didn't have the middle infield depth that we had and it looked like Florimon was still progressing. Florimon is probably one of the next ones off the roster.

Long story short, the Orioles have been good at not adding fringe prospects and when they do, they don't last on the roster soon.

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