Bowden: O's have made significant offer to Konerko

[JTrea81]

It seems to me that you use criteria to go against Lee but not Konerko..Its not very consistent.

Konerko has put his numbers up against some bad AL Central teams and the new comiskey is a pretty good hitters park.

Why doesn't that come into play?

Have you seen how Wrigley plays for RH hitters when the wind is blowing out?

Wrigley is also a good hitter's park.

[JTrea81]

Lee brings far less risk because the contract will be more favorable, the defense is better and the pick is kept.

Lee's defense has actually been getting worse over the past three years according to his UZR/150 numbers.

2008: 7.2

2009: 4.5

2010: 2.3

The decline is in direct correlation to the decrease in RangeR (Range Runs Above Average) suggesting his range is declining.

And he wasn't that spectacular earlier in his career:

2003: -1.7

2004: 1.7

2005: -1.6

2006: 3.6

2007: -0.8

His total UZR/150 for his career at 1B has been 0.9.

Konerko didn't drop off the table until last year, but he also hasn't shown a steady decline:

2007: 0.4

2008: -1.2

2009: 2.1

2010: -14.7

Konerko's major problem was just like Lee's as his RangeR dropped off dramatically but in 2009 he was almost as good as Lee was last year.

So really with Lee you can't say he'll bring the defensive value he once had as it appears his range is getting worse with age as to be expected, but you also have to look at Konerko and wonder if he'll bounce back or not.

[Frobby]

Can someone make the case as to why Konerko for 3-4 years is better than Derrek Lee for 2 years, a second round pick and 20-30 million dollars?

No, but I'm way more focused on getting a good 1B who has power than I am on whether the solution is the one I like best. Konerko would fit our team well and if we can get him here I'm not going to obsess about the other alternatives.

[DeanMW]

3-4 years for Konerko, I would think takes the Orioles out of the running for the really good 1B coming up in the next 18 months. No way do I see this team handing Konerko bigish money (12/y) then turning around and getting one of the Gonzalez, Fielder, Pujols(omg please) triumvirate.

[24fps]

3-4 years for Konerko, I would think takes the Orioles out of the running for the really good 1B coming up in the next 18 months. No way do I see this team handing Konerko bigish money (12/y) then turning around and getting one of the Gonzalez, Fielder, Pujols(omg please) triumvirate.

I don't think the Orioles will offer more than three years to Konerko, which is one year too much as it is.

A lot can change in 2-3 years which is why it's important to not get too hung up on players who were good in the last 2-3 years. Some will still be good later on, others, unexpectedly, will prove to be worth considering.

Is AM the type of GM who can successfully function in that kind of environment? Well, "Nimble" doesn't seem to be his middle name, does it...?

[El Gordo]

I don't think the Orioles will offer more than three years to Konerko, which is one year too much as it is.

A lot can change in 2-3 years which is why it's important to not get too hung up on players who were good in the last 2-3 years. Some will still be good later on, others, unexpectedly, will prove to be worth considering.

Is AM the type of GM who can successfully function in that kind of environment? Well, "Nimble" doesn't seem to be his middle name, does it...?

If the O's want Konerko they have to offer 3 years. They will lose on the third year, but he will be productive as a 1B for the first year and a DH for the second.

[24fps]

If the O's want Konerko they have to offer 3 years. They will lose on the third year, but he will be poroductive as a 1B for the first year and a DH for the second.

I should have been more clear. I agree that three years is the minimum necessary for Konerko to consider the Orioles. Personally I think that a 4th year should be a deal-breaker.

I'd happily settle for two productive years from Konerko by your scenario if I were confident that our GM could proactively use the time to build in some third-year insurance elsewhere in the system.

[MrOrange82]

I should have been more clear. I agree that three years is the minimum necessary for Konerko to consider the Orioles. Personally I think that a 4th year should be a deal-breaker.

I'd happily settle for two productive years from Konerko by your scenario if I were confident that our GM could proactively use the time to build in some third-year insurance elsewhere in the system.

I'd happily settle for two productive years if I felt at-all confident that we'd get two productive years. Would he be an improvement over what we trotted out to 1B in 2010? Sure...but so would Eddie Gaedel. Konerko's contract probably wouldn't be crippling, per se, but I'm pretty certain it'd be at least a medium-sized albatross.

[e16bball]

Just don't see the appeal of giving Konerko a sizeable deal.

We're talking about a guy who was in steady decline until this past season, which was a legitimate explosion of a rebound. But before last season, is this a guy we would have been considering giving a contract of 3-4 years and $40-50M, and sacrificing a 2nd round pick in this draft in the process?

There's no way. Which means that the interest in doing so now is based almost entirely on his blowup 2010 season at age 34. But how reliable is that going forward? As Orioles fans, we have a pretty decent reference point for a 1B who was declining from 31-33 (as you'd expect) and then put up a monster 34-year-old season...Eddie Murray. From 1986-89, Eddie was steadily falling off. In 1990, he put together a huge season for the Dodgers (26 HRs, 158 OPS+). After that? Slightly above-average hitter for the rest of his career.

That's not to say because that's what happened with Eddie, that's definitely what will happen with Konerko. But I think it is evidence that good hitters can put together a season in their twilight years that is, essentially, nothing more than a mirage. Seems to me much more likely that Konerko returns to his 2007-09 levels (111 OPS+) than repeats his 2010 season. And with some indication that his defense fell off a cliff last year, he could be a real albatross with that level of production with the stick.

I understand the idea of wanting to take risks. But do you really want to place your bets based largely on a career year at age 34? I just don't think it's wise.

[droper]

Living in Chicago I've seen both play hundreds of games. There are pros and cons to each. Everyone values each criteria differently. But both would fill what is a gaping hole at 1B. And for the record Konerko has said locally he realizes he may have to accept more of a DH role where ever he signs as he gets older. I think playing with Thome and Big Frank showed him how importantthat can still be.

Lee, cheaper, no lost pick, above average defense

but, less power, less of a leader, up and down season to season

Konerko, more power, super clubhouse guy, quiet leader-was made captain of the SOX

but, average defense, probably lots more money, loss of a pick up and down throughout his career

Overall I prefer Konerko because I think money comitted is low on the priority scale, the O's lineup really could use the pop and I think he'd mesh well with Roberts and is overall just a 'baseball guy'. Lee's a good player and I wouldn't be upset to see them sign him but I think Konerko has the bigger impact on the team and the lineup.

[Hank Scorpio]

Sign Dunn and DH him. Pay him enough that he doesn't piss and moan about it.

Sign Derrek Lee for 1st base and keep your 3rd round pick.

Trade for Bartlett or Hardy. Preferably Hardy.

Trade for Mark Reynolds.

[DuffMan]

Sign Dunn and DH him. Pay him enough that he doesn't piss and moan about it.

Sign Derrek Lee for 1st base and keep your 3rd round pick.

Trade for Bartlett or Hardy. Preferably Hardy.

Trade for Mark Reynolds.

So easy a caveman can do it, but can AM?

[clapdiddy]

So easy a caveman can do it, but can AM?

I'm guessing "no"!

[Hank Scorpio]

So easy a caveman can do it, but can AM?

Ehhhhhhhhhhh, I'm not saying it'd be easy, but that's the route I'd try to go.

As much as people want to deny it, this isn't a desirable place for free agents.

[Babypowder]

Sign Dunn and DH him. Pay him enough that he doesn't piss and moan about it.

Sign Derrek Lee for 1st base and keep your 3rd round pick.

Trade for Bartlett or Hardy. Preferably Hardy.

Trade for Mark Reynolds.

I can get on board with this plan. I want no part of Dunn unless he DHs but if he does I am into it. With the rest of those moves we can put Scott back in left and we would have a pretty formidable offense.