Fukudome, Kuroda, Kobayashi

[TGO]

Exactly what I've been saying. The O's seem two or three steps behind, so why not do something innovative instead of trying to play catchup in areas where they're already way behind? Why be the 29th team to establish a good academy in the Dominican when they could be the first with one in Korea or Columbia or Trinidad or India? Why not look 10 years in the future, instead of trying to get to where the Sox and Yanks and 10 other teams were in 1998?

This is the real Moneyball lesson. If you're failing to beat the other teams at their game, invent your own game and outflank them.

How did the O's get into Aruba? That seems to be the only place where we ever beat other teams to punch. And now we seem to have let that pipeline go dry.

[DrungoHazewood]

How did the O's get into Aruba? That seems to be the only place where we ever beat other teams to punch. And now we seem to have let that pipeline go dry.

Not sure how steady the flow is going to be from a country with a population of just a tick over 100k. St. Mary's County is pretty comparable in size. Or Roanoke, VA. It's probably remarkable that the O's found three or four semi-major leaguers there.

[eric824]

When Fukudome's name came up here a few months ago, I mentioned him to a friend who went to a lot of Japanese games while stationed there (the USAF transferred him to New Mexico 3 or 4 months ago).

This was his response, FWIW:

Yeah, sure I know about Fukudome! He plays RF for the Dragons. He is a good player. I wouldn't rate him as a power hitter or anything, since he doesn't have a large amount of career homeruns after several years of play but he is a consistent hitter. I think last year he was hitting in the middle 3s (.340-360) and he won the league MVP. I think if he could adapt to American pitching style he would fare pretty well here (Japanese pitchers throw a lot of stuff down into the dirt).

[SHAWN555]

Right, but they should at least master one continent first...their own.

I've said it before and I'll say it again...time and time they haven't gotten it right here, what makes you think we'll all of a sudden be pulling off heists in getting quality under the radar guys from the Pacific rim?

So we should make no attempt to go after any players from the Pacific rim because we have failed in the pass. This is just the kind of attitude that will lead to more failing.

We have nothing to lose by going after some of these players. The fact that we would not lose a draft pick is more of a reason for us to target some of these players.

Obviouslly we need to start more and better facilities in latin america but to not give a look to any of the pacific rim players is just foolish in my opinion.

I do not expect us to find a player who will come over and become a mvp, but we can find some players who will help improve this team, and isnt that what we should be trying to do? Would you rather suffer thru another year of Faheys, Bynums and Birkins?

[Moose Milligan]

Exactly what I've been saying. The O's seem two or three steps behind, so why not do something innovative instead of trying to play catchup in areas where they're already way behind? Why be the 29th team to establish a good academy in the Dominican when they could be the first with one in Korea or Columbia or Trinidad or India? Why not look 10 years in the future, instead of trying to get to where the Sox and Yanks and 10 other teams were in 1998?

This is the real Moneyball lesson. If you're failing to beat the other teams at their game, invent your own game and outflank them.

Now this is what I'd agree with. However, I just have no faith that the O's could ever do anything like that. With MacPhail on board, maybe, but I have no idea where his priorities lie.

IMO, Drungo, I was thinking the O's would just dispatch a few scouts to Asia and get back some flops, that would seem par for the course, wouldn't it?

But if the O's were to do something like this, that would be pretty cool. It's definitely a good idea.

I just have no reason to think they'd ever get it done.

[Moose Milligan]

So we should make no attempt to go after any players from the Pacific rim because we have failed in the pass. This is just the kind of attitude that will lead to more failing.

We have nothing to lose by going after some of these players. The fact that we would not lose a draft pick is more of a reason for us to target some of these players.

Obviouslly we need to start more and better facilities in latin america but to not give a look to any of the pacific rim players is just foolish in my opinion.

I do not expect us to find a player who will come over and become a mvp, but we can find some players who will help improve this team, and isnt that what we should be trying to do? Would you rather suffer thru another year of Faheys, Bynums and Birkins?

No, but my whole point is that I don't expect the O's to be able to get anything back from the Pacific that'd amount to anything. Why? Cause they can't even do it in the States. So how can we expect to start plucking people from Japan and make a big turnaround when we've been falling all over ourselves for a decade?

The problem is deep rooted in this organization and it's in the scouting. Joe Jordan and his drafts seem to have been paying off in the past couple of years but other than that, it's hard to tell if we have any good scouts at all.

I'm not saying we have to pick up MVP type players, but I just have little faith in anything the O's do that's FO related...which includes being able to select players from Asia whom they think would be successful in the majors.

It's just a franchise that has done almost NOTHING right in the past decade. I have some faith in MacPhail, but like I said in my previous post, I have no idea where his priorities are.

[TommyD4207]

I agree with Moose more than anyone on the subject. The pass/fail ratio of Asian talent seems to be somewhat low.

From what I can tell, the successful players RIGHT NOW are Dice-K, Okajima, Matsui, Ichiro, Otsuka, Wang, and Johjima.

From what I can tell, there are a few borderlines like Iwamura, Iguchi, Ryu,

And plenty of busts such as Sun Woo Kim, Byeung-Hyum Kim, Hideki Irabu, Makato Yoshi, Takashi Kashiwada, Kei Igawa, Nori Nakamura, and many, many more.

I have read on a few occasions that it's very difficult to gauge the level of difficulty that is between Japanese ball and Major League ball. Nobody can quite put their finger on the reliability of Minor League to Major League translations, but there's a certain understanding from what I understand.

When a guy like Kei Igawa puts up a 2.97 ERA in Japanese ball and then the very next year gets blown to bits, that raises some eyebrows.

When a guy like Dice-K who's seen as 1/2 man, 1/2 cyborg in Japan comes over to have a mere 4.40 ERA, it's a bit surprising.

When a guy like Akinori Iwamura puts up a 933 OPS only to have a 770 OPS, that's bad.

The Red Sox paid $51M in posting fee and are going to pay him $52M over the life of his contract. For $103M, there's a ton more talent to be had that can give you a 4.40 ERA. You can burned worse, by having a guy like Barry Zito, but in general, it's not that bad.

Don't get me wrong, prices are insane these days, but Gil Meche was given what was thought to be an absurd contract and produced better and he cost the Royals about 1/2 of what Dice-K was given. Don't get me wrong, I am in no way saying that over the next 4 years that Meche will be better, just saying that Dice-K was way overpriced and way overhyped.

If it's going to cost us a ton of money like it cost Boston, then I would say don't bother. Spending $103M like that is not something the Orioles should be in to right now IMO and I wouldn't be shocked if a guy like Fukudome gets that. He'll turn 31 before Opening Day next year and that's just not something I'd be interested in.

As a side note, I did find it funny how someone was proposing that we tap into Colombia. Easy to spot somebody that's never been there before. As someone that is very close to somebody that is from Colombia and has actually been there on multiple occasions, I'll tell you that OCab and Renteria are the exception to the rule, just because there's no interest over there. My best friend told 3 out of every 4 kids there would probably not be able to ID a baseball if you gave them a bunch of balls from a bunch of different sports. There are pretty much no baseball fields over there either.

If you want them to explore the DR though, that's where I would get on the bus. I have a friend from church that organizes mission trips over there (I've never been able to go unfortunately) and he tells me that the kids there at age 10 and 11 hit the ball better than a lot of high school players.

If it's going to cost $103M (Dice-K) for "proven" talent or $46M (Igawa) for "not so proven" talent, then I'm really not interested. If you want to try something else, like DR, then I'd be interested is I guess what my conclusion would be.

[square634]

If it's going to cost us a ton of money like it cost Boston, then I would say don't bother. Spending $103M like that is not something the Orioles should be in to right now IMO and I wouldn't be shocked if a guy like Fukudome gets that. He'll turn 31 before Opening Day next year and that's just not something I'd be interested in.

It won't take nearly that much money to sign him.

[DrungoHazewood]

I agree with Moose more than anyone on the subject. The pass/fail ratio of Asian talent seems to be somewhat low.

From what I can tell, the successful players RIGHT NOW are Dice-K, Okajima, Matsui, Ichiro, Otsuka, Wang, and Johjima.

From what I can tell, there are a few borderlines like Iwamura, Iguchi, Ryu,

And plenty of busts such as Sun Woo Kim, Byeung-Hyum Kim, Hideki Irabu, Makato Yoshi, Takashi Kashiwada, Kei Igawa, Nori Nakamura, and many, many more.

I have read on a few occasions that it's very difficult to gauge the level of difficulty that is between Japanese ball and Major League ball. Nobody can quite put their finger on the reliability of Minor League to Major League translations, but there's a certain understanding from what I understand.

When a guy like Kei Igawa puts up a 2.97 ERA in Japanese ball and then the very next year gets blown to bits, that raises some eyebrows.

When a guy like Dice-K who's seen as 1/2 man, 1/2 cyborg in Japan comes over to have a mere 4.40 ERA, it's a bit surprising.

When a guy like Akinori Iwamura puts up a 933 OPS only to have a 770 OPS, that's bad.

The Red Sox paid $51M in posting fee and are going to pay him $52M over the life of his contract. For $103M, there's a ton more talent to be had that can give you a 4.40 ERA. You can burned worse, by having a guy like Barry Zito, but in general, it's not that bad.

Don't get me wrong, prices are insane these days, but Gil Meche was given what was thought to be an absurd contract and produced better and he cost the Royals about 1/2 of what Dice-K was given. Don't get me wrong, I am in no way saying that over the next 4 years that Meche will be better, just saying that Dice-K was way overpriced and way overhyped.

If it's going to cost us a ton of money like it cost Boston, then I would say don't bother. Spending $103M like that is not something the Orioles should be in to right now IMO and I wouldn't be shocked if a guy like Fukudome gets that. He'll turn 31 before Opening Day next year and that's just not something I'd be interested in.

As a side note, I did find it funny how someone was proposing that we tap into Colombia. Easy to spot somebody that's never been there before. As someone that is very close to somebody that is from Colombia and has actually been there on multiple occasions, I'll tell you that OCab and Renteria are the exception to the rule, just because there's no interest over there. My best friend told 3 out of every 4 kids there would probably not be able to ID a baseball if you gave them a bunch of balls from a bunch of different sports. There are pretty much no baseball fields over there either.

If you want them to explore the DR though, that's where I would get on the bus. I have a friend from church that organizes mission trips over there (I've never been able to go unfortunately) and he tells me that the kids there at age 10 and 11 hit the ball better than a lot of high school players.

If it's going to cost $103M (Dice-K) for "proven" talent or $46M (Igawa) for "not so proven" talent, then I'm really not interested. If you want to try something else, like DR, then I'd be interested is I guess what my conclusion would be.

Cool... that's the plan, then. Ignore emerging baseball hotbeds and places with top caliber leagues, but concentrate your efforts on places where 25 or 28 teams already have a bigger presence than the O's.

Sounds a lot (hell, exactly) like the O's international plans of the past. Guess if it works don't fix it.

[Mackus]

From what I can tell, the successful players RIGHT NOW are Dice-K, Okajima, Matsui, Ichiro, Otsuka, Wang, and Johjima.

From what I can tell, there are a few borderlines like Iwamura, Iguchi, Ryu,

And plenty of busts such as Sun Woo Kim, Byeung-Hyum Kim, Hideki Irabu, Makato Yoshi, Takashi Kashiwada, Kei Igawa, Nori Nakamura, and many, many more.

It definitely makes sense to compare the number of successful players in MLB right now to the number of flops from all time. Apples to apples.

[RShack]

Cool... that's the plan, then. Ignore emerging baseball hotbeds and places with top caliber leagues, but concentrate your efforts on places where 25 or 28 teams already have a bigger presence than the O's.

Sounds a lot (hell, exactly) like the O's international plans of the past. Guess if it works don't fix it.

What places do you consider to be "emerging baseball hotbeds and places with top caliber leagues"? (I ain't disagreeing, I'm just asking.)

[Sports Guy]

What places do you consider to be "emerging baseball hotbeds and places with top caliber leagues"? (I ain't disagreeing, I'm just asking.)

Obviously Asia.....

[RShack]

Obviously Asia.....

Asia's too big. What *countries* in Asia are "emerging hotbeds" and/or have "top caliber leagues", those are the places that might matter.

[Moose Milligan]

Cool... that's the plan, then. Ignore emerging baseball hotbeds and places with top caliber leagues, but concentrate your efforts on places where 25 or 28 teams already have a bigger presence than the O's.

Sounds a lot (hell, exactly) like the O's international plans of the past. Guess if it works don't fix it.

Or we could easily dismiss the proven hotbeds of international talent and not even make an effort to have a bigger presence because we're scared to compete with other teams off the field now as well.

[TommyD4207]

Cool... that's the plan, then. Ignore emerging baseball hotbeds and places with top caliber leagues, but concentrate your efforts on places where 25 or 28 teams already have a bigger presence than the O's.

Sounds a lot (hell, exactly) like the O's international plans of the past. Guess if it works don't fix it.

Huh??????????

Out of my post you got THAT?!

How?

The point of my thread is that it's often not worth it. Would you enjoy having Kei Igawa on the team? He's $46M down the drain and Kris Benson might be a better option.