Fukudome, Kuroda, Kobayashi

[Sports Guy]

Huh??????????

Out of my post you got THAT?!

How?

The point of my thread is that it's often not worth it. Would you enjoy having Kei Igawa on the team? He's $46M down the drain and Kris Benson might be a better option.

If some team evaluates a player wrong and way overpays for them, that's their fault.

But just because someone gave a player a big contract, doesn't mean he is all that.

Most people who saw Igawa and those who actually looked at his stats, saw a guy who was a borderline 4/5 starter in the AL at best.

The same thing applies in Japan as it does here...Look at K rate, bb rate, HR rate and command rate and adjust accordingly for pitchers.

For hitters, how much are the striking out(ie, would they be overmatched over here), walking and how much power are they showing and then, again, adjust accordingly.

[TGO]

If some team evaluates a player wrong and way overpays for them, that's their fault.

But just because someone gave a player a big contract, doesn't mean he is all that.

Most people who saw Igawa and those who actually looked at his stats, saw a guy who was a borderline 4/5 starter in the AL at best.

The same thing applies in Japan as it does here...Look at K rate, bb rate, HR rate and command rate and adjust accordingly for pitchers.

For hitters, how much are the striking out(ie, would they be overmatched over here), walking and how much power are they showing and then, again, adjust accordingly.

Yeah, this isn't that difficult.

Believe it or not, they play the same baseball in Japan that we play here. Is it on the ML level? No. But you look at the numbers, make some adjustments, add in some scouting reports and you're in business. This is no different than picking major league or minor league free agents, targeting prospects in trades, drafting American and Puerto Rican amateurs, or signing Latin American free agents.

Look at the numbers and scouting reports.

[RShack]

Believe it or not, they play the same baseball in Japan that we play here.

I agree they play baseball in Japan. I'm so sure where else in Asia is an emerging hotbed or has good leagues, but I agree that Japan plays ball. However, for some reason I had the impression that MLB had some kind of understanding with the Japanese leagues that we wouldn't poach their young kids... that Japan was territory that we wouldn't mess with, that it belonged to the 2 Japanese leagues, and all we'd do is either buy rights from the Japanese teams or else wait for their guys to be FA's. But I'm not sure where I got this idea. Did I just make it up out of thin air? Or did we have an understanding with the Japanese leagues about this?

[TommyD4207]

Yeah, this isn't that difficult.

Believe it or not, they play the same baseball in Japan that we play here. Is it on the ML level? No. But you look at the numbers, make some adjustments, add in some scouting reports and you're in business. This is no different than picking major league or minor league free agents, targeting prospects in trades, drafting American and Puerto Rican amateurs, or signing Latin American free agents.

Look at the numbers and scouting reports.

I'm pretty sure that no one predicted a 4.40 ERA for Dice-K. That was probably quite the deviation from where most projective systems put him. Minor league translations tend to be a percentage, he more than doubled his ERA from Japan to America. Is Japan that significantly lower competition?

It's no different from drafting Latin American amateurs I'll agree, but I definitely think it's a lot more surefire to gauge minor leaguers.

I'm pretty sure that no one predicted that Kei Igawa would get blown to bits. SG claims that he heard borderline 4/5 starter, but I definitely heard better. Either way, he pitched so crappy that he's not even a 4/5 starter.

I believe that to an extent, minor leaguer numbers hold about the same amount of weight as major league numbers with translations. Major league numbers bear in mind are not surefire as any one of a million things can happen. I'm yet to hear that it's surefire to predict Japanese numbers as there are very few guys that would probably fit the bill for the translations.

[ChaosLex]

I guess this thread is moot, considering bigbird said that once again we're going to ignore the Asian market.

[TGO]

I agree they play baseball in Japan. I'm so sure where else in Asia is an emerging hotbed or has good leagues, but I agree that Japan plays ball. However, for some reason I had the impression that MLB had some kind of understanding with the Japanese leagues that we wouldn't poach their young kids... that Japan was territory that we wouldn't mess with, that it belonged to the 2 Japanese leagues, and all we'd do is either buy rights from the Japanese teams or else wait for their guys to be FA's. But I'm not sure where I got this idea. Did I just make it up out of thin air? Or did we have an understanding with the Japanese leagues about this?

We do have the understanding you're talking about. We're not talking about signing young Japanese players. We're talking about signing posted players and free agents (and I personally would not go after most posted players).

[TGO]

I'm pretty sure that no one predicted a 4.40 ERA for Dice-K. That was probably quite the deviation from where most projective systems put him. Minor league translations tend to be a percentage, he more than doubled his ERA from Japan to America. Is Japan that significantly lower competition?

It's no different from drafting Latin American amateurs I'll agree, but I definitely think it's a lot more surefire to gauge minor leaguers.

I'm pretty sure that no one predicted that Kei Igawa would get blown to bits. SG claims that he heard borderline 4/5 starter, but I definitely heard better. Either way, he pitched so crappy that he's not even a 4/5 starter.

I believe that to an extent, minor leaguer numbers hold about the same amount of weight as major league numbers with translations. Major league numbers bear in mind are not surefire as any one of a million things can happen. I'm yet to hear that it's surefire to predict Japanese numbers as there are very few guys that would probably fit the bill for the translations.

As I said, scouting reports matter. David Wright basically said of Igawa (and I'm seriously paraphrasing here) that his stuff was terrible when he faced him in Japan after the 2006 season and he was not impressed one bit. There were plenty of reports that he could be in for a lot of trouble as a ML starter, especially in the AL East.

[Moose Milligan]

As I said, scouting reports matter. David Wright basically said of Igawa (and I'm seriously paraphrasing here) that his stuff was terrible when he faced him in Japan after the 2006 season and he was not impressed one bit. There were plenty of reports that he could be in for a lot of trouble as a ML starter, especially in the AL East.

That still didn't stop the Yankees from throwing good money at him.

Why?

[RShack]

We do have the understanding you're talking about. We're not talking about signing young Japanese players. We're talking about signing posted players and free agents (and I personally would not go after most posted players).

OK. Then for Japan, which is where baseball is strong and established, it's not a matter of having some scouting staff beating the bushes, it's just a matter of having a scout going to lots of Japanese pro games. And, they have what, 2 6-team leagues? So, that's no more than 6-games per day to choose from, over the course of a season? One guy could see every player there play 1 of every 6 games they play. That's not "a staff", that's "a guy".

Korea has a league, but according to that article I stumbled across, Korea's not the huge hotbed that maybe we thought, and having their best players leave is enough to hurt the sport there. So, maybe that's one other guy, tops. Maybe a part-time guy.

So, where else in Asia is baseball even in existence, either as an emerging hotbed or as a place with strong leagues? It sounds good to try to get ahead of the pack, but you want to look where some significant amount of ballplayers actually are. It doesn't matter that China has a billion people if they don't play baseball.

[Sports Guy]

I'm pretty sure that no one predicted a 4.40 ERA for Dice-K. That was probably quite the deviation from where most projective systems put him. Minor league translations tend to be a percentage, he more than doubled his ERA from Japan to America. Is Japan that significantly lower competition?

It's no different from drafting Latin American amateurs I'll agree, but I definitely think it's a lot more surefire to gauge minor leaguers.

I'm pretty sure that no one predicted that Kei Igawa would get blown to bits. SG claims that he heard borderline 4/5 starter, but I definitely heard better. Either way, he pitched so crappy that he's not even a 4/5 starter.

I believe that to an extent, minor leaguer numbers hold about the same amount of weight as major league numbers with translations. Major league numbers bear in mind are not surefire as any one of a million things can happen. I'm yet to hear that it's surefire to predict Japanese numbers as there are very few guys that would probably fit the bill for the translations.

Well, you also have to consider an adjustment period for these guys..New country, new culture...Totally different situation for them.

I also hadn't realized that one year does a contract make...Must be a new rule.

[Sports Guy]

That still didn't stop the Yankees from throwing good money at him.

Why?

Panic? Stupidity? Desperation? Knowing that they missed out on Dice-K?

[Moose Milligan]

Panic? Stupidity? Desperation? Knowing that they missed out on Dice-K?

Hell if I know, but you'd think they'd be a bit smarter than that. Yeah, they dole out big contracts but they do it to proven players who've gotten the job done before.

I'm thinking panic, desperation because they knew they missed out on Dice-K with a heaping side of stupidity...which is odd cause Cashman seems like a reasonably smart GM. You'd think he could have found someone better than Kei Igawa...especially with all the income in the world at his disposal.

You're right, this one year won't write the book on Dice-K but I think we've got a good idea of what he is. #2 starter at best, probably a #3...his stuff isn't THAT electric.

Not sure how much I buy the adjustment period. There wasn't much of one for Ichiro or Matsui, they stepped in right away and did really well. But, alas, everyones an individual, Dice-K might come out and dominate next year, who knows?

Either way, I see it two ways....you can do the Moneyball thing which Drungo outlined earlier...or, you can take whats worked for others and make it better...there's nothing wrong with that, either.

If you're trying to be the original on something, there's bound to be a trial and error period...personally, I don't want to wait on that.

I'd like to see the O's take the most successful model of Dominican scouting, fuel a bunch of money to get the nicest facilities down there and treat those kids that play nothing but baseball all day like kings. I'd like to see the O's make it the hottest spot in town, the nicest manicured fields, even dorms for players to sleep in...good food to eat, three squares a day, great instruction from people who really know how to teach the game. A great clubhouse with flatscreens, video games, whatever.

It'd be baseball paradise down there. Again, I'd just take the most successful model, get some creative baseball minds in there and see how to improve it and make it more attractive and go all out.

And if it'd make Drungo happy, we could build one in Asia somewhere, too.

[RShack]

I'd like to see the O's take the most successful model of Dominican scouting, fuel a bunch of money to get the nicest facilities down there and treat those kids that play nothing but baseball all day like kings. I'd like to see the O's make it the hottest spot in town, the nicest manicured fields, even dorms for players to sleep in...good food to eat, three squares a day, great instruction from people who really know how to teach the game. A great clubhouse with flatscreens, video games, whatever.

It'd be baseball paradise down there. Again, I'd just take the most successful model, get some creative baseball minds in there and see how to improve it and make it more attractive and go all out.

I'm with you on this. Add in a couple of limos to drive them over to pick up their parents, impress the neighbors, etc.

And if it'd make Drungo happy, we could build one in Asia somewhere, too.

I don't mind that idea, but I just wanna know exactly where, that's all... I'm holding out for someplace where they've already know what a baseball is...

[Moose Milligan]

I don't mind that idea, but I just wanna know exactly where, that's all... I'm holding out for someplace where they've already know what a baseball is...

Whatever it takes, I just want to make Drungo happy.

I'm thinking the Great Wall of China would be a hell of an outfield fence.

[TommyD4207]

As I said, scouting reports matter. David Wright basically said of Igawa (and I'm seriously paraphrasing here) that his stuff was terrible when he faced him in Japan after the 2006 season and he was not impressed one bit. There were plenty of reports that he could be in for a lot of trouble as a ML starter, especially in the AL East.

I don't even know where to begin. Let me just say this, if Wright were to have said, "He had spectacular stuff" and then Igawa would've had a godawful season it would have been brushed off as saying as a small sample size. Likewise, if Igawa had done well this year, it would be the same thing. Basing it off of sample size would be foolish.

As for scouting reports, that's also arbitrary. I remember everyone being crazy for Dice-K due to his PITCHES. Scouts REPORTED about how great the "gyroball" and all that was. The scouting reports were flat out glowing. Combine that with amazing statistics and it's kind of weird that he's at 4.40 ERA.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not coming to any sort of a conclusion...at all. That's pretty much something I try to stay away from...always. Too many people way, way misunderstood me earlier, I don't come to conclusions, I merely point out how it's nowhere near a foregone conclusion.

If glowing scouting reports and spectacular numbers from Dice-K don't translate to great success, well I wouldn't be shocked, but it'll definitely be something to remember going forward about paying +$100M for foreign players.