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Gonzalez + Crawford minus Beltre + VMart = 2 WAR


Frobby

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While on paper, the upgrade is worth only 2 WAR, one would assume that Gonzalez and Crawford will be better playing in Fenway Park.

WAR accounts for park effects, thereby normalizing Petco and Fenway to average ballpark.

In other words, AGon may post better counting numbers at Fenway, but his WAR in Petco already accounted for that.

JTrea hyperbole aside, Boston has the potential to be very good, but as Drungo pointed out, they are not without age-related issues. How many more high performance years does an Ortiz, Youklis, Drew, Scutaro, Lackey, etc have left? Maybe decline sets in this year, maybe next year, it's a volatile occurrence, but one thing is certain....it will happen at some point. Yeah, the Red Sox will probably just re-load (see Ramirez, Hanley) but perhaps payroll will be an albatross at that point.

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WAR accounts for park effects, thereby normalizing Petco and Fenway to average ballpark.

In other words, AGon may post better counting numbers at Fenway, but his WAR in Petco already accounted for that.

JTrea hyperbole aside, Boston has the potential to be very good, but as Drungo pointed out, they are not without age-related issues. How many more high performance years does an Ortiz, Youklis, Drew, Scutaro, Lackey, etc have left? Maybe decline sets in this year, maybe next year, it's a volatile occurrence, but one thing is certain....it will happen at some point. Yeah, the Red Sox will probably just re-load (see Ramirez, Hanley) but perhaps payroll will be an albatross at that point.

The Sox have $136 mm committed to 17 players for 2011. That excludes Papelbon who will probably make close to $10 mm ($9.35 mm last year). So, their payroll for 2010 probably ends up at $150 mm or so, which is down from last year's $168 mm. In 2012, they have Drew ($14 mm), Ortiz ($12.5 mm), Papelbon (~$10 mm), Cameron ($7.75 mm), Wakefield ($2 mm) and Varitek ($2 mm) coming off the books, and will have about $115 mm committed to 10 players (assuming $20 mm for AGon). So, they have some room to reload assuming that $150mm - $170mm is now their threshhold.

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  • 2 months later...

I thought it might be interesting to compare your projections to PECOTA's, now that they're out. Remember that WARP has a lower replacement level assumption than WAR, so a WAR of 5.0 is worth more than a WARP of 5.0.

PECOTA in BOLD

Well let's look at the Sox right now:

Position Players: 38.5 24.7

Ellsbury (3.0) 1.5

Pedroia (6.0) 2.6

Youkilis (5.5) 5.5

Gonzalez (6.0) 3.9

Crawford (6.0) 3.2

Ortiz (3.0) 2.3

Drew (2.5) 2.0

Salty (1.0) 0.8

Scutaro (2.2) 1.1

Lowrie (1.5) 1.3

Cameron (1.0) 0.3

Varitek (0.8) 0.2

Patterson (0.0) 0.0

Pitchers: 25.2 18.3

Lester (6.0) 4.1

Beckett (3.5) 2.5

Buchholz (4.0) 3.3

Lackey (4.0) 2.3

Matsuzaka (2.5) 1.8

Wakefield (1.1) 0.1

Atchison (0.0) 0.1

Bowden (0.4) N/A

Doubront (0.5) N/A

Bard (1.7) 0.6

Papelbon (1.5) 1.4

Wheeler (N/A) 0.8

Okajima (N/A) 0.3

Jenks (N/A) 1.0

Total = 63.7 fWAR = 107-108 wins 93.6 wins

And that's without adding bullpen help or upgrading their bench...

PECOTA is just one system, and maybe not the most accurate. But I think their projection is closer to reality than 107 or 108. They were less optimistic on every single player both of you rated after you take into account the lower replacement level (and all but two before that).

Right now they have the O's at 81 wins, or 12 behind the Sox. 11 behind the Yanks, three behind the 84-win Rays.

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I thought it might be interesting to compare your projections to PECOTA's, now that they're out. Remember that WARP has a lower replacement level assumption than WAR, so a WAR of 5.0 is worth more than a WARP of 5.0.

PECOTA in BOLD

PECOTA is just one system, and maybe not the most accurate. But I think their projection is closer to reality than 107 or 108. They were less optimistic on every single player both of you rated after you take into account the lower replacement level (and all but two before that).

Right now they have the O's at 81 wins, or 12 behind the Sox. 11 behind the Yanks, three behind the 84-win Rays.

If they have the O's at 81, and the Rays at 84, and the Yankees at 92 and the Red Sox at 93, is there some sort of metric available that would tell us our odds of making the playoffs (basically, what I'm asking is, what are the odds we're lucky enough and our opponents are unlucky enough to make up the 11 game difference?)

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If they have the O's at 81, and the Rays at 84, and the Yankees at 92 and the Red Sox at 93, is there some sort of metric available that would tell us our odds of making the playoffs (basically, what I'm asking is, what are the odds we're lucky enough and our opponents are unlucky enough to make up the 11 game difference?)

Based on the teams involved and the Orioles' luck...1,000,000,000,000:1 :laughlol:

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If they have the O's at 81, and the Rays at 84, and the Yankees at 92 and the Red Sox at 93, is there some sort of metric available that would tell us our odds of making the playoffs (basically, what I'm asking is, what are the odds we're lucky enough and our opponents are unlucky enough to make up the 11 game difference?)

Right now PECOTA has the O's at about an 11% chance at making the playoffs, which is about what my completely unscientific swag was a week or so ago.

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