So, what is being built?

[Stotle]

Aren't most organizations in this boat? Aren't most organizations in a big whole if an entire draft does not produce?

IMO, this is mostly worst case scenarios being painted here. Which is my first point.

No. I think there are examples of organizations who do very little in the draft and still survive by acquiring talent elsewhere.

My second point is that we have a lot of young talent in this organization. People go ga-ga over the Kansas City farm system, but Hosmer and Moustakas were taken before Wieters and Matusz. And we also have Arrieta from the 07 draft. If we had our three still in the minors, we could have five top 50 guys. We have a lot more talent than folks give us credit for and the griping regarding our minor league system ignores the young talent we already have in the majors.[/Quote]

All well and good. If that talent isn't enough to win and you don't have much else coming up any time soon, it means nothing. Well, it means you have good trading chips in a few years if you have the misfortune of an injury or two and some underperforming.

Kansas City's talent is great. The fact that they have covered almost every position (including the rotation) with someone who at minimum has a chance to be a solid ML regular and potentially better is worlds apart from the arms BAL brought up, supplemented by Wieters/Jones/Reimold.

The third point is that we are competing in the AL East. It's a 90 win minimum to get to the playoffs. We would be a good team with upside in most other divisions, IMO, and that casts a pall on most moves we do.

Reality is reality. When I was back in New York I couldn't go into a partner's office at my law firm and say, "My work product would have been adequate or even among the best work product out there if I were in a Tampa law office or smaller NY firm with less sophisticated clients." You can eventually compete in most divisions (depending on the year) by being a competent organization, no? The Brewers traded for two pitchers and are now competitive. That doesn't cut it in the AL East, and I am going to grade on an AL East scale.

[Singleton]

Aren't most organizations in this boat? Aren't most organizations in a big whole if an entire draft does not produce?

IMO, this is mostly worst case scenarios being painted here. Which is my first point.

My second point is that we have a lot of young talent in this organization. People go ga-ga over the Kansas City farm system, but Hosmer and Moustakas were taken before Wieters and Matusz. And we also have Arrieta from the 07 draft. If we had our three still in the minors, we could have five top 50 guys. We have a lot more talent than folks give us credit for and the griping regarding our minor league system ignores the young talent we already have in the majors.

The third point is that we are competing in the AL East. It's a 90 win minimum to get to the playoffs. We would be a good team with upside in most other divisions, IMO, and that casts a pall on most moves we do.

We have very little MLB talent starting the season at Frederick, Bowie, or Norfolk next year. That's a horror show and can't happen. It's good with have some quality, young, major leaguers but you can't have zip at your highest 3 levels.

[Sports Guy]

Aren't most organizations in this boat? Aren't most organizations in a big whole if an entire draft does not produce?

IMO, this is mostly worst case scenarios being painted here. Which is my first point.

My second point is that we have a lot of young talent in this organization. People go ga-ga over the Kansas City farm system, but Hosmer and Moustakas were taken before Wieters and Matusz. And we also have Arrieta from the 07 draft. If we had our three still in the minors, we could have five top 50 guys. We have a lot more talent than folks give us credit for and the griping regarding our minor league system ignores the young talent we already have in the majors.

The third point is that we are competing in the AL East. It's a 90 win minimum to get to the playoffs. We would be a good team with upside in most other divisions, IMO, and that casts a pall on most moves we do.

For years and years, you have been preaching the team is turning the corner..This goes back to the years of Duq, Beattie and Flanny.

Do you still believe this? Do you think this organization will be a legit AL East contender within 2 years?

[Sports Guy]

The third point is that we are competing in the AL East. It's a 90 win minimum to get to the playoffs. We would be a good team with upside in most other divisions, IMO, and that casts a pall on most moves we do.

So, what does this mean? Does this mean that we should just continue to have built in excuses for why the Orioles continue to trip over their own feet?

Should we just sit back and pat AM on the back because he is giving it the "old college try" even though he is falling way short of doing what he needs to be doing?

[hoosiers]

So, what does this mean? Does this mean that we should just continue to have built in excuses for why the Orioles continue to trip over their own feet?

Should we just sit back and pat AM on the back because he is giving it the "old college try" even though he is falling way short of doing what he needs to be doing?

When you provide a post with a point, I'll join your discussion.

[Arthur_Bryant]

And if it still that way 18 months from now, it will be a major issue.

It is already an issue.

With every desirable trade for a top talent that doesn't get made because the minor league talent isn't there, it is an issue.

When the O's continually pass on the chance to pursue foreign talent that would slot into AA and AAA, it is an issue.

When the options for filling 1B basically come down to two guys--one an aging question mark, the other definitively average--because there is no realistic possibility at AA and AAA, it is an issue.

The talent is spread way too thin in this organization. That has been true for years, and it is true today. We do not have to wait a year and a half to see whether that is an issue. It is an issue.

[PlumOriole]

First, great post Stotle. I agree that we are not doing enough in international scouting and pulling enough talent out of the draft. Having said that, I don't think we are in a horrible position and look at this year as a critical year to evaluate, develop current players and to bring in another top talent player via trade.

Goals for 2011:

* Evaluate Pie, Riemold for LF

* Keep developing young pitching, Jones, Wieters

* Create a winning attitude and results.

* Trade Guthrie at All Star break and other pieces as needed to get LF if Pie and Riemold are not seen as the future. Scott can be traded in this package or separately if needed. Justin Upton is a prime target for LF.

* By June, I expect AM to draft another pitcher in the first round and hopefully more talent in later rounds.

* After the season I offer Fielder a contract he can't refuse.

* I realize AM wants to grow the arms but I would also look at bringing in a top FA SP.

IMHO this team has plenty of payroll room. Whether it is going to be spent is another question.

This team is not as bad as some may think short term but I agree they need to get better at bringing in more talent to keep it going. If this team can't draft, scout and develop at a level even close to AL East competitors we do not have much to look forward to long term.

Bottom line is we don't have depth in talent so the development of the current ML team this year is crucial. This year will tell a lot about the future of this team.

[SrMeowMeow]

Lots to think about as always, but I think it's a mistake to compare our improvement to that of other teams. If our team gets better, it gets better.

[TradeAngelos]

The only thing that is being built is Angelos' bank account balance after he extorted MLB, pocketed the MASN revenue and not spent one dime on a quality free agent in the last 7 years.

[wildcard]

There is a level of pessimism in this thread about the building of the Orioles that I just don't share. I see a lot of good things happening. Nothing is perfect but that can be said about most organizations. Just look at the Yankees pitching right now.

A few points:

Why deny what we saw in late 2010?

Off of the what we see saw the last two months of the season there is a lot of talent on the O's and Buck knows how to get the players to win. They have had a taste of winning and will come into ST unafraid on the rest of league. The O's have already proven they can play with anyone.

Cal from Roch Blog:

"The Orioles should take a lot of optimism from how they did the last month and a half of the season. They play in the toughest division and played teams down the stretch that were vying for playoff spots, and they played really, really well against the AL East. To me, you sit back and look at that - that's big, that's important. I think Oriole fans should be optimistic, with a full spring training with Buck (Showalter) and getting the team even further along. "

The O's are upgrading this off season

Pretty hard to deny that Hardy and Reynolds are better then Tejada/Bell and Izturis. And hopefully there is more to come.

On how the O's afford the players as they get more expensive.

The O's payroll will probably be in the 80M range this year. The team should improve to be a winner. If they do attendance and viewership on MASN should go up. The more the team wins the more revenue comes in. In three years the team could have $120M payroll from what the team is building. That $40M more to keep and add players to a winning team. Baltimore today is a disinterested market. Give them a winner and they will support the team.

There is development occurring.

Its good to never be satisfied with the number and quality of players being developed. But you can't ignore what good thing are happening. And because players do develop you can't know what the system will look like a year from now.

Players that didn't contribute in 2010 that are in the upper minors: Tillman, Britton, Reimold, Joseph, Mahoney, Bell, and Angle. This coming draft is supposed to be deep. If the add two college players in the first two rounds and add them to Machado (who could come fast), Klein, Bundy, Townsend, Avery and Hoes. There are players that can fill the void.

Winning team can attract FAs.

This canbe a source of high level talent that has not been available to the O's in a big way. This coming year the O's should win. With that the O's probably can attract better talent.

I am optimistic and will get even more so if the O's add a first baseman, relievers and some bench support.

[Spy Fox]

In general, I am optimistic about the next few years. I think this team has a chance to be real contenders within a couple years. That's the problem though-- it's just a chance, and even the most optimistic of us would say that a lot has to go right for the O's if they're going to be a playoff team.

The roster right now has no real contingency plan. We basically need all of our core players to improve or else we won't contend, and it's very rare that everything comes together that smoothly.

What if Wieters continues to be just an average catcher?

What if neither Reimold or Pie become good LF options?

What if Jones and Markakis never develop into the stars we have expected?

What if Matusz stalls, Bergesen proves to be a flash in the pan, or Tillman and Arrieta never put it together?

I am hopeful about the future of all of those players, but there's so many question marks. If even a couple of the declines described above happen to our young core, we won't be able to contend with the rest of the division.

Look at the Rays. Some of their original big time prospects didn't turn out to be the stars they expected. Kazmir, Baldelli, Delmon Young, BJ Upton, etc... But they were still able to become a contending team because their foundation was much more thorough than what we have now. As others have said, they didn't put all their eggs in one basket. Now, they've lost Crawford, Pena, Bartlett, and probably Garza. Yet they still appear to be a solid team going forward. Not great, but solid. Can you see the Orioles losing that much talent and still being a decent team?

I really think the Orioles can be an 80-85 win team in 2011, and after that make the jump to contender status. But we all know better than to truly expect such good results, and if those results don't come within the next couple of years, we are stuck for a while because the organization is not self-sustaining or creative.

[now]

Some excellent points here in addition to the OP. Here's my 2 cents worth of cause for optimism:

- We did play at an elite level for a full third of a season last year, including head-to-head in the division. That's not smoke and mirrors, though it may seem so given the overall level of talent and wins for the year.

- On top of the team accomplishing the above, we have vast improvements in place at 3B and SS, and likely 1B yet to come. Add Britton to the mix in place of an ineffective Millwood.

- We are also due to have solid improvements from last year's underperformers, notably Reimold and Tillman, along with progressions to expected potential across the board. Note that no one overperformed expectations last year, with the exception of Scott (and add Guthrie and Uehara if you had low expectations to begin with).

- Yes, to reach contention in the division, we have to catch a break with more than our share overperforming for a change, and hoping for one of the big boys to fall down like Boston did last year. This year it could well be NY. We're closer than many here admit, to at least a plausible (if not probable) continuation of the success of August-Sept '10.

- As for the future, it will take care of itself. Everything built so far really rests on what happens in 2011 - so we first need to find out where we really are with all the key pieces ready to click together.

[mweb]

I haven't read the vast majority of the thread so forgive me if I'm repeating a lot of stuff...

I think it's a fallacy that other teams don't see attractive pieces to trade for, I'm guessing it's mostly that the attractive pieces largely aren't available other than for an overpay. And that's not to say the that the farm system is strong, because it's not right now. The primary attractive pieces are at the major league level now.

As far as what's being built, I'd say a decent team with the potential to be very good within the next 2-3 years. Becoming very good is obviously largely dependent on how the young core progresses; last year was a disappointment in that regard.

Even if they become very good, it's going to be hard to make the playoffs due to the division we are in. AM flat out has one of the toughest jobs in baseball imo and he may not be good enough to overcome the disadvantes he has to deal with.

I agree with the OP that not enough is being done in terms of the combination of young international talent and draft eligible talent. This is the biggest failure of the organization imo and it must be improved.

Otherwise, lets hope MLB does something to help us out.

[Camden_yardbird]

Short answer to the OP:

A mediocre team with the foundation for something competitive in a 2-4 year window in the next few years.

I have maintained for awhile that this organization is going to have to make some tough decisions in the near future and that I am doubtful that either Roberts or Markakis is here when the Orioles next see the playoffs.

[Frobby]

In general, I am optimistic about the next few years. I think this team has a chance to be real contenders within a couple years. That's the problem though-- it's just a chance, and even the most optimistic of us would say that a lot has to go right for the O's if they're going to be a playoff team.

The roster right now has no real contingency plan. We basically need all of our core players to improve or else we won't contend, and it's very rare that everything comes together that smoothly.

What if Wieters continues to be just an average catcher?

What if neither Reimold or Pie become good LF options?

What if Jones and Markakis never develop into the stars we have expected?

What if Matusz stalls, Bergesen proves to be a flash in the pan, or Tillman and Arrieta never put it together?

I am hopeful about the future of all of those players, but there's so many question marks. If even a couple of the declines described above happen to our young core, we won't be able to contend with the rest of the division.

Look at the Rays. Some of their original big time prospects didn't turn out to be the stars they expected. Kazmir, Baldelli, Delmon Young, BJ Upton, etc... But they were still able to become a contending team because their foundation was much more thorough than what we have now. As others have said, they didn't put all their eggs in one basket. Now, they've lost Crawford, Pena, Bartlett, and probably Garza. Yet they still appear to be a solid team going forward. Not great, but solid. Can you see the Orioles losing that much talent and still being a decent team?

I really think the Orioles can be an 80-85 win team in 2011, and after that make the jump to contender status. But we all know better than to truly expect such good results, and if those results don't come within the next couple of years, we are stuck for a while because the organization is not self-sustaining or creative.

Very good post. I agree, we have to hope that a lot of things go right. It's not unrealistic to hope for that, but it isn't a given.

Luckily for us, we don't have the same financial restrictions as Tampa, and we have a much better fan base. If our team had done what Tampa's did the last three years, we wouldn't be looking at a mass exodus the way Tampa is now. We'd have the wherewithall to retain a lot of our talent. But our farm system is light years away from theirs in terms of productivity.