So, what is being built?

[wildcard]

In general, I am optimistic about the next few years. I think this team has a chance to be real contenders within a couple years. That's the problem though-- it's just a chance, and even the most optimistic of us would say that a lot has to go right for the O's if they're going to be a playoff team.

The roster right now has no real contingency plan. We basically need all of our core players to improve or else we won't contend, and it's very rare that everything comes together that smoothly.

What if Wieters continues to be just an average catcher?

What if neither Reimold or Pie become good LF options?

What if Jones and Markakis never develop into the stars we have expected?

What if Matusz stalls, Bergesen proves to be a flash in the pan, or Tillman and Arrieta never put it together?

I am hopeful about the future of all of those players, but there's so many question marks. If even a couple of the declines described above happen to our young core, we won't be able to contend with the rest of the division.

Look at the Rays. Some of their original big time prospects didn't turn out to be the stars they expected. Kazmir, Baldelli, Delmon Young, BJ Upton, etc... But they were still able to become a contending team because their foundation was much more thorough than what we have now. As others have said, they didn't put all their eggs in one basket. Now, they've lost Crawford, Pena, Bartlett, and probably Garza. Yet they still appear to be a solid team going forward. Not great, but solid. Can you see the Orioles losing that much talent and still being a decent team?

I really think the Orioles can be an 80-85 win team in 2011, and after that make the jump to contender status. But we all know better than to truly expect such good results, and if those results don't come within the next couple of years, we are stuck for a while because the organization is not self-sustaining or creative.

Sometimes not everything has to go right for a team to win. Tampa won 96 last year but:

1B Pena hit .198 with a 732 OPS.

2B Rodriguez had a 705 OPS

SS Bartlett had a 675 OPS

RF Zobirst had a 699 OPS

DH Aybar had a 654 OPS

SP Shield went 13-15 with a 5.18 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP

Sometimes not everything has to go right. Just enough times.

When we are thinking about the O's needing to improve to be a winner or contenders lets not make it like everything has to perfect before that can happen.

The O's first need major leaguers at all the important positions and then they have to play together well. Buck had them doing that for the last two months last year. Hopefully he can do it all year in 2011.

[Dipper9]

The Orioles Organization....

The Red Sox Organization...

The Yankees Organization...

[JTrea81]

Hmm, I think I've heard this same argument somewhere before...

Kudos for Stotle for at least getting the point across.

The bottom line is the Orioles have already built something - now they just need to decide whether it's good enough to invest in or not.

As for SG's comment about building an organization, I don't just want to spend a ton of money and hope everything works out - I want to take a shot at winning and do what it takes to win. Something that hasn't been done at all since 1995-1996.

I guess where the argument fell short is that nobody apparently wants our prospects this offseason. Connolly replied back to me when I asked him:

Dan, what about Guthrie, Arrieta and VandenHurk? How about Josh Bell?

Nobody is interested in these guys at all?

--

Arrieta definitely has value, but not top shelf. More like B value. But definitely value. Guthrie has plenty of value for a contending team that needs more solid starting P. But he makes too much money for a rebuilding team to covet. So that would be the opposite kind of trade -- the Orioles dealing Guthrie for a younger cheaper player or two. And that doesn't seem to be the plan now. VandenHurk is out of options in 2011; he's not a viable trade chip. And Bell isn't either right now. I'm not saying the Orioles couldn't trade these guys; I am saying the Orioles couldn't trade these guys for a difference maker.

So it appears that we are really stuck at this point. I think the O's have to pray that the core gets better this season and do everything they can to ensure that happens. Trading for a guy like Beltran might be an excellent move.

Otherwise - blowing it up is really our only option IMO.

[Sports Guy]

Hmm, I think I've heard this same argument somewhere before...

Kudos for Stotle for at least getting the point across.

The bottom line is the Orioles have already built something - now they just need to decide whether it's good enough to invest in or not.

As for SG's comment about building an organization, I don't just want to spend a ton of money and hope everything works out - I want to take a shot at winning and do what it takes to win. Something that hasn't been done at all since 1995-1996.

I guess where the argument fell short is that nobody apparently wants our prospects this offseason. Connolly replied back to me when I asked him:

So it appears that we are really stuck at this point. I think the O's have to pray that the core gets better this season and do everything they can to ensure that happens. Trading for a guy like Beltran might be an excellent move.

Otherwise - blowing it up is really our only option IMO.

The problem with this is that we aren't ready to contend, even if Fielder and Beltre were added.

And the problem with that is, you have to deal players for Fielder, guys you may need long term. You lose a pick for Beltre. So now, you have lost 4 or 5 young players/prospects from your system..So, that is a lot less depth..And you do that for a guy that could be one and done and a guy that is a #6 hitter and is likely to be a big contract problem when we hope to be contending.

On top of all of that, you have to replace those players you have lost with FAs..So, you continue to drive up the payroll. By driving up the payroll, you have less money to spend on amateur talent...By having less to spend on amateur talent, you need to sign more FAs long term because you don't have the players in the minors to perform. By signing FAs, you lose picks.

You act as if you have one offseason of spending like crazy and it would end there...That's just not the case.

Also, you think the Orioles have more money than they do to spend. Look at the Phils...Look at how their payroll has gone as they have started to win. I am not sure the Orioles could get to that 150 million dollar level but they could get to 120...But it can't be done right now. You have to be smart about it.

[JTrea81]

The problem with this is that we aren't ready to contend, even if Fielder and Beltre were added.

And the problem with that is, you have to deal players for Fielder, guys you may need long term. You lose a pick for Beltre. So now, you have lost 4 or 5 young players/prospects from your system..So, that is a lot less depth..And you do that for a guy that could be one and done and a guy that is a #6 hitter and is likely to be a big contract problem when we hope to be contending.

On top of all of that, you have to replace those players you have lost with FAs..So, you continue to drive up the payroll. By driving up the payroll, you have less money to spend on amateur talent...By having less to spend on amateur talent, you need to sign more FAs long term because you don't have the players in the minors to perform. By signing FAs, you lose picks.

You act as if you have one offseason of spending like crazy and it would end there...That's just not the case.

Also, you think the Orioles have more money than they do to spend. Look at the Phils...Look at how their payroll has gone as they have started to win. I am not sure the Orioles could get to that 150 million dollar level but they could get to 120...But it can't be done right now. You have to be smart about it.

Well Fielder is off the table now, so he isn't an option. As for driving up the payroll with free agents, we have enough room to do that temporarily before our younger players all get to arbitration, there is a window there. Matusz for instance is signed for a couple of more years before he gets expensive. It's going to take some creativity in contracts to pull it off but it can be done. And then you have players like Roberts, Guthrie and Scott dropping off the payroll from 2012-2013.

The draft pick argument may not even exist after 2011, we'll have to see, and assuming it stays the same, was a big reason I was arguing for going after FAs like Tex, Holliday and Beltre now while it won't cost you a first round pick to sign. Those are the picks that really hurt to lose as you have a shot at the first best 30 players in the draft. If we were to be a 83 win team after this season - our first round pick is now likely unprotected where it wouldn't have been this offseason.

But I agree you can't do something stupid like the Orioles did in 2009-2010 where instead of Holliday - the pick went for Gonzalez who was a waste. But right now the second round pick has also been devalued quite a bit by all the comp picks and that could just be this year, but losing it for Beltre wouldn't have been all that bad. And we could have held onto Hernandez - our best trade chip - for something else. But we chose to spend him on Reynolds.

My point in investing in the core is that like it or not, this is the team that MacPhail has put together. And you've got to either win with them or blow it all up again. There simply is no other option, and to win with them, you've got to make an investment in their future. Their success is going to depend a lot on the quality of that investment IMO.

[OFFNY]

Their success is going to depend a lot on the quality of that investment IMO.

Welcome back.

OFFNY (Oriole Fan from New York)

.

[GreatEight]

Well Fielder is off the table now

Let's all take a moment to let this set in!

I think with this team, including a firstbaseman, you have improvement. I would hope it would be enough to contend, but i seriously doubt that. I know SG is a guy that would like us to trade Scott, and Guthrie. I almost agree. I think we should add a first baseman, another reliever or two, and maybe another starter. Then go into 2011 and see where this team is with the players we aquired. Say before the All-Star break we are around or above .500 but really no chance of contending. That might be a good time to trade pieces like Scott and Guthrie, when teams are willing to give up a little more for that playoff push. This might help build back up our minors, and give us better trade chips for the 2012 season.

[Dipper9]

Let's all take a moment to let this set in!

I think with this team, including a firstbaseman, you have improvement. I would hope it would be enough to contend, but i seriously doubt that. I know SG is a guy that would like us to trade Scott, and Guthrie. I almost agree. I think we should add a first baseman, another reliever or two, and maybe another starter. Then go into 2011 and see where this team is with the players we aquired. Say before the All-Star break we are around or above .500 but really no chance of contending. That might be a good time to trade pieces like Scott and Guthrie, when teams are willing to give up a little more for that playoff push. This might help build back up our minors, and give us better trade chips for the 2012 season.

I have to disagree. If we are around .500 at the trade deadline, we absolutely have to go for a winning record in 2011. We need to start turning around the perception that Baltimore is not a good place to play, and the only way to do that is to start stringing together winning seasons. In order to start a streak, ya gotta start at number one. It is imperitive that the Orioles play above .500 in 2011 or this whole MacPhail Era Rebuild will have been another 4 years of wasted time.

[Agent0]

No. I think there are examples of organizations who do very little in the draft and still survive by acquiring talent elsewhere.

All well and good. If that talent isn't enough to win and you don't have much else coming up any time soon, it means nothing. Well, it means you have good trading chips in a few years if you have the misfortune of an injury or two and some underperforming.

Kansas City's talent is great. The fact that they have covered almost every position (including the rotation) with someone who at minimum has a chance to be a solid ML regular and potentially better is worlds apart from the arms BAL brought up, supplemented by Wieters/Jones/Reimold.

Reality is reality. When I was back in New York I couldn't go into a partner's office at my law firm and say, "My work product would have been adequate or even among the best work product out there if I were in a Tampa law office or smaller NY firm with less sophisticated clients." You can eventually compete in most divisions (depending on the year) by being a competent organization, no? The Brewers traded for two pitchers and are now competitive. That doesn't cut it in the AL East, and I am going to grade on an AL East scale.

I disagree with this.....and if there are examples, they are the exception and not the rule. Who are the teams that win with very little contribution from their farm systems? Even Mark Teixaira contributed to Texas' run this year. The Yankees haven't produced talent in a while (save for Cano) but they are already on top of the heap and are already an attractive place to go.

Your first post seemed to provide a lot of bullet points that seeming left us with no remaining alternatives. However, the fact that

2. Baltimore does not have attractive trade pieces in their system.

Is the one thing within our control and the one thing that needs to change. Small and mid market teams need to develop players so that several "0-3 guys" are contributing at the major league level and holding payroll down. Those teams also have to hit a home run with some of those players and hope they become stars. Finally, some mixture of success and upside will attract FA's while the excess on the farm will make for good trading.

That should be the plan. This team has no Mauer and Morneau. It has no Tulo or Jimenez. It has no Linc and Posey. It has no Utley and Howard. It has no Votto. It has no Youkalis and Pedroia.

...not yet anyway. So the plan is to either develop one of those guys in the future or to see if someone we have will become one. Everything else will start to fall into place after that (assuming we keep producing young players while our good young ML'ers block them).

Until these things happen, I still feel like we have a glass ceiling.

[webbrick2010]

For years and years, you have been preaching the team is turning the corner..This goes back to the years of Duq, Beattie and Flanny.

Do you still believe this? Do you think this organization will be a legit AL East contender within 2 years?

Won't contend until there is new ownership. If everything plays out just right they may win 85 games sometime in the next couple years. If they don't plug the holes (big ones), at 1B, LF, and SP for this year they will lose > 90 games yet again.

[Stotle]

I disagree with this.....and if there are examples, they are the exception and not the rule. Who are the teams that win with very little contribution from their farm systems? Even Mark Teixaira contributed to Texas' run this year. The Yankees haven't produced talent in a while (save for Cano) but they are already on top of the heap and are already an attractive place to go.

Well, I was responding to a claim that one year's worth of poor draft picks makes it tough to compete. I went a step further pointing out there are teams that do it without focusing on the draft at all. The Mets were competitive for a long spell. The White Sox do very little in the draft and have a recent World Series and remain generally competitive. Up until recently Toronto did not foucs on maximizing draft output, and has been a plus side of 81 win team for a good chunk of the decade. Detroit only recently started spending big early on in the draft, and I doubt you'll find much outside of the early round or two that they are splurging on.

The point is simply that whiffing on the 2009 draft class, due to injury or for whatever the reason, shouldn't cripple a farm system, and certainly not cripple a ML team's chance at being competitive in the near future.

Your first post seemed to provide a lot of bullet points that seeming left us with no remaining alternatives. However, the fact that

2. Baltimore does not have attractive trade pieces in their system.

Is the one thing within our control and the one thing that needs to change. Small and mid market teams need to develop players so that several "0-3 guys" are contributing at the major league level and holding payroll down. Those teams also have to hit a home run with some of those players and hope they become stars. Finally, some mixture of success and upside will attract FA's while the excess on the farm will make for good trading.

That should be the plan. This team has no Mauer and Morneau. It has no Tulo or Jimenez. It has no Linc and Posey. It has no Utley and Howard. It has no Votto. It has no Youkalis and Pedroia.

...not yet anyway. So the plan is to either develop one of those guys in the future or to see if someone we have will become one. Everything else will start to fall into place after that (assuming we keep producing young players while our good young ML'ers block them).

Until these things happen, I still feel like we have a glass ceiling.

I don't disagree that BAL has not done enough on the acquisition/development side.

[GreatEight]

I have to disagree. If we are around .500 at the trade deadline, we absolutely have to go for a winning record in 2011. We need to start turning around the perception that Baltimore is not a good place to play, and the only way to do that is to start stringing together winning seasons. In order to start a streak, ya gotta start at number one. It is imperitive that the Orioles play above .500 in 2011 or this whole MacPhail Era Rebuild will have been another 4 years of wasted time.

Yea I see what you’re saying. I just don't know if these guys are apart of the "core" going forward. I would hate to have nothing to show for them when Matusz, Wieters, Jones, Britton, etc., are all playing their best ball (hopefully), and these guys are at the end of their career. I also think they might be replaceable with guys that have similar production. If the "core" improves like we all hope, I think this club can be .500 or a little better without Scott or Guthrie. But yes, this club is in desperate need of at least a winning record this year, agree 100% there.

[Sports Guy]

Well Fielder is off the table now, so he isn't an option. As for driving up the payroll with free agents, we have enough room to do that temporarily before our younger players all get to arbitration, there is a window there. Matusz for instance is signed for a couple of more years before he gets expensive. It's going to take some creativity in contracts to pull it off but it can be done. And then you have players like Roberts, Guthrie and Scott dropping off the payroll from 2012-2013.

The draft pick argument may not even exist after 2011, we'll have to see, and assuming it stays the same, was a big reason I was arguing for going after FAs like Tex, Holliday and Beltre now while it won't cost you a first round pick to sign. Those are the picks that really hurt to lose as you have a shot at the first best 30 players in the draft. If we were to be a 83 win team after this season - our first round pick is now likely unprotected where it wouldn't have been this offseason.

But I agree you can't do something stupid like the Orioles did in 2009-2010 where instead of Holliday - the pick went for Gonzalez who was a waste. But right now the second round pick has also been devalued quite a bit by all the comp picks and that could just be this year, but losing it for Beltre wouldn't have been all that bad. And we could have held onto Hernandez - our best trade chip - for something else. But we chose to spend him on Reynolds.

My point in investing in the core is that like it or not, this is the team that MacPhail has put together. And you've got to either win with them or blow it all up again. There simply is no other option, and to win with them, you've got to make an investment in their future. Their success is going to depend a lot on the quality of that investment IMO.

You have said you have to contend right now and that should be your only goal.

In a vacuum, that's true...But you can't look at these things in a vacuum. The Orioles are just not in position to do that...Its that simple. You may not want to hear that but its the reality. It sucks that the young guys blew last year for the most part but it is what it is.

AM has improved the team this offseason, there is no doubt about that. The team has a real chance to make a huge leap and win 15-20 more games than they did last year. Now, that's not contending but it does put you on the doorstep for 2012.

Now, the question is, can AM and PA get us past that doorstep? I don't think they can...I do think they can get us to that doorstep but not beyond it..unless the Orioles get very lucky.

[helloharv]

You have said you have to contend right now and that should be your only goal.

In a vacuum, that's true...But you can't look at these things in a vacuum. The Orioles are just not in position to do that...Its that simple. You may not want to hear that but its the reality. It sucks that the young guys blew last year for the most part but it is what it is.

AM has improved the team this offseason, there is no doubt about that. The team has a real chance to make a huge leap and win 15-20 more games than they did last year. Now, that's not contending but it does put you on the doorstep for 2012.

Now, the question is, can AM and PA get us past that doorstep? I don't think they can...I do think they can get us to that doorstep but not beyond it..unless the Orioles get very lucky.

Would you like to make a wager on that ? I bet we don't have a winning record. Let me know if your interested.

I would love to be wrong one of these years

[helloharv]

How many others think we have improved 15-20 games this off-season?