1B Possibility?

[Sports Guy]

So Alonso has the SG can't miss prospect seal of approval. I will watch his career with great interest. Me I don't trade my MVP for a prospect.

I certainly wouldn't label him a can't miss. He isn't a Justin Upton level talent.

He could be Casey Kotchman, Hank Blalock or Adrian Gonzalez.

But he is certainly worth us trading Scott.

[Sports Guy]

Alonso was overvalued coming out of the draft, but is undervalued now. He has performed almost exactly as I expected him to up to this point.

I actually think he's a very safe bet to play in the big leagues. He will hit for average and walk enough to have value. I think his upside is overblown, but he can post a .180 ISO-P in the ML fairly easily. I think he's a got a really good shot to be an .800-.850 OPS bat.

He's a good target to go after. He's blocked, won't require a king's ransom, and is ML ready.

Cincy would probably be after Guthrie before Scott or Tillman.

For those who think it's a good idea to get averish production out of LaRoche for three years and pay 21 MM+, why not get the same out of Alonso for 1.5 MM, and then have him for three additional arb years. More risk, but more upside, too.

Guthrie for Alonso is the trade I have been saying for a while but Cinci has 6 guys for their rotation as it is...Would they really want Guthrie?

[Say O!]

If you are looking at Alonso, why not consider Chris Carter of the A's?

Like Alonso, Carter is a blocked prospect. Carter may even come a little cheaper in terms of a trade. Not sure the O's match up with the A's well though.

Carter MIL #'s

Alonso MIL #'s

[MrOrange82]

Guthrie for Alonso is the trade I have been saying for a while but Cinci has 6 guys for their rotation as it is...Would they really want Guthrie?

If Scott goes in a trade for Alonso, what's your lineup? And does that lineup augment or diminish stability going forward? (in other words, how much risk is endemic in the lineup sans-Scott and plus-Alonso, IYO)

[MrOrange82]

If you are looking at Alonso, why not consider Chris Carter of the A's?

Like Alonso, Carter is a blocked prospect. Carter may even come a little cheaper in terms of a trade. Not sure the O's match up with the A's well though.

Carter MIL #'s

Alonso MIL #'s

Why would Carter be cheaper? He's a better prospect, and...I thought he was supposed to figure into the ML picture next year?

[waroriole]

IMO, the problem is that right now we have DH taken care of (with Scott, a fairly "known" commodity) and a hole at 1B. Seems that Alonso is anything but a sure thing at 1B, so even though Scott's older and potentially only around for a couple more years, trading him for Alonso runs the risk of leaving the O's with multiple holes to fill...not two years from now, but in 2011. Yes, we still have Reimold and Pie to sort out, Reimold could DH, etc., but that's just plugging another unsure thing into the equation.

Yeah, that is a good point. The question is do you see Scott as a nugget when we are in playoff contention, and if so for how many years? IMO, Alonso is more likely to help us when we are contending for the playoffs, so I would be willing to make that swap. We can always sign a guy like Damon, or Giambi, Branyan, Glaus to DH this year, while having Alonso play 1B. Or, we could sign Lee and have he and Alonso play 1B/DH.

[Frobby]

His ceiling is John Olerud (which would be pretty outstanding). If he falls short of that, he can still be .285/.365/.450 bat. A good #2 or #6 on a tier 1 team.

Sean Casey for a mid-case? (Slightly lower BA, slightly higher BB rate.) http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/caseyse01.shtm

[Stotle]

Sean Casey for a mid-case? (Slightly lower BA, slightly higher BB rate.) http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/caseyse01.shtm

Sure; sounds fine to me.

[RVAbird]

His ceiling is John Olerud (which would be pretty outstanding). If he falls short of that, he can still be .285/.365/.450 bat. A good #2 or #6 on a tier 1 team.

In terms of BA and power? Sure, I can dig it. Do I think he'll have a career walk rate of 14 percent and a career OBP of .400? No. He's disciplined, and I suppose you could call that his ceiling, but I think it's unlikely that he walks a hundred times a year with middling power numbers.

In any case, a .300/.380/.480 line wouldn't surprise me at all. He's a safe bat in terms of control and discipline. The only reason I brought up ceiling was because I didn't think his was ever high enough to warrant a top 10 selection in that draft. I had him 15-30 based mostly on the safety of his bat.

He's still a very solid prospect, though.

[RVAbird]

Guthrie for Alonso is the trade I have been saying for a while but Cinci has 6 guys for their rotation as it is...Would they really want Guthrie?

Well, the question is, do they think Guthrie is better than a couple of the starters they currently have. They are going to be contenders, and they need to do what it takes to try to win as many games as possible. Alonso won't be a part of that, and the Reds might be better off in 2011/2012 planting Guthrie in the middle of their rotation instead of hoping that two of Bailey, Leake, Maloney and Chapman work out. I guess it depends on what they value.

I find it less likely that they'd try to trade for Tillman, as they have several young starters competing for those last couple of spots who are no less proven and show no less promise than he.

Maybe they are content to go with what they have. With Bruce and Stubbs making up 2/3 of their outfield and Heisey, Frazier and Gomes battling for the third and fourth OF spots, I wonder how interested they would really be in Scott and Pie.

I'd be on the phone with Cincy to figure out their wishlist. Maybe we match up, maybe we don't. Maybe they'd be interested in bullpen help or younger prospects to reload down the line. Alonso is certainly a good target, though.

[wildcard]

This is insane...Thinking that we are better off with a stop gap first baseman over a guy that could be a ten year answer is insane.

Well I didn't say that Tillman was a ten year answer, but if you say so........

I am actually choosing Tillman over Alonso.

Alonso reminds me of someone that fizzled.

Alonso: 1st round pick, high OBP in the minors, limited power

Kotchman: 1st round pick, high OBP in the minors, limited power

Fact is Kotchman was better in the minors.

I think you are reliving your past.

[RVAbird]

Why would Carter be cheaper? He's a better prospect, and...I thought he was supposed to figure into the ML picture next year?

There will be healthy competition between Daric Barton and Chris Carter, and Carter can get a little time in the outfield and at DH. He's not a good defensive outfielder, though, and Barton is a very good defensive first baseman, so it's tough to see Carter getting a ton of at bats. The A's now have Willingham, DeJesus and Matsui in the fold.

Carter's got holes in his swing and might compete with Reynolds for strikeout king, but he's got a ton of power.

I doubt the A's let him go cheaply, though.

[RVAbird]

Well I didn't say that Tillman was a ten year answer, but if you say so........

I am actually choosing Tillman over Alonso.

Alonso reminds me of someone that fizzled.

Alonso: 1st round pick, high OBP in the minors, limited power

Kotchman: 1st round pick, high OBP in the minors, limited power

Fact is Kotchman was better in the minors.

I think you are reliving your past.

Do you know how many high ceiling pitching prospects to which we could compare Tillman who fizzled out?

Fact is pitching prospects bust at higher rates than positional prospects.

I think you are overrating BAL prospects, again.

[maybe2050]

If you are looking at Alonso, why not consider Chris Carter of the A's?

Like Alonso, Carter is a blocked prospect. Carter may even come a little cheaper in terms of a trade. Not sure the O's match up with the A's well though.

Carter MIL #'s

Alonso MIL #'s

Man, this guy does sound like a beast at the plate. Would definitely be better than having to pull Scott from left field. I wish people would get this Scott at DH thing out of their head. The man deserves a left field starting role. This guy Carter would be nice, and his numbers look good except for 2009. I guess he was injured to have had so little AB's, and played in so few games.

[waroriole]

There will be healthy competition between Daric Barton and Chris Carter, and Carter can get a little time in the outfield and at DH. He's not a good defensive outfielder, though, and Barton is a very good defensive first baseman, so it's tough to see Carter getting a ton of at bats. The A's now have Willingham, DeJesus and Matsui in the fold.

Carter's got holes in his swing and might compete with Reynolds for strikeout king, but he's got a ton of power.

I doubt the A's let him go cheaply, though.

A little off topic here, but the A's are looking like contenders in the West. Very solid team all around, with very good SP.