1B Possibility?

[Scrat1]

I disagree with some of the details of these posts, but I can respect the basic ideology behind the two.

Re: Scrat -

The advantage of Alonso is service time and cost control. To get averageish production from 1B using the FA market, you have to continuously spend 7-12 MM dollars and sometimes commit to contracts that are too long (IE, the predicament we seem to be in with LaRoche and Lee). Alonso gives you a cheap, long-term solution, which fills a hole for years and gives us the payroll flexibility to maximize the talent we can afford in FA.

This is of course all true, but the logic cuts both ways. In fact, I could replace Alonso's name with Tillman's name in the second sentence and it would mean the exact same thing. You're going to have to go to free agency to fill some holes and Baltimore is going to have better luck bringing in position players than they are pitchers. And, as you know, your point about attrition among pitchers applies to free agents as well. Considering our division and the size of our ballpark, no pitching free agent is going to come here, especially considering how much demand there is for starting pitching every offseason. We may be wrestling with LaRoche, but a league average 31 year old starting pitcher probably wouldn't even be on the market at this point. If he were, it would be because he was deciding between all the gaudy contracts teams were offering him. Baltimore would not be among them.

I mean look at how much press was surrounding Jorge De La Rosa. He's a national league pitcher with a career ERA of 5.02 who has never pitched 200 innings and only pitched over 130 innings once. And even he would never consider going to Baltimore. Even if we gave LaRoche a 3/21 contract, it would still be a better contract than Burnett's and probably Lackey's. And we would have had to give them even worse contracts.

With as much trouble as even the Yankees are having fixing their rotation, I don't think it would be wise to ship off Tillman for decent, but not great, first base solution. On the market for first base still: Johnson, Branyan, LaRoche, Lee. And that doesn't include the DHs if we were going to do some rearranging: Thome, Manny, Vlad. What starters are still available? Millwood?

[Cakes2Kakes]

RVAbird, MROrange82, Scrat1

I've enjoyed reading this entire debate. Not only has it been informative, but it is refreashing to read a civil discussion where no one is trying to bully others into agreement with them.

My 2 cents worth on making any of the suggested trades: I see this type of trade as a very good midseason target. The teams mentioned will not only have a better idea of their needs but may have desperation needs as well. We will also know better who we should be trying to move.

I think we should have as dependable an option at first as is available to start the season. Even if contending might not seem likely this season, the main goal from here forward should be to have a team on the field that "can" win each game they play.

I hope the days of tossing our prospects onto the big league stage to sink or swim are behind us! Very few players are ready for a full time MLB gig the first time or two they come up to the bigs, and it is better for their self confidence if they overcome the rookie mistakes as a bit player knowing the team has a better option to cover their shortcomings! Expecting too much too soon can also lead to wanting to give up on a talented young player too early, (see Bell & Reimold).

To Paraphrase the great Flip Wilson, (Reverend Leroy), "Let 'em crawl Rev! Let 'em crawl!"

[Sports Guy]

Well I didn't say that Tillman was a ten year answer, but if you say so........

I am actually choosing Tillman over Alonso.

Alonso reminds me of someone that fizzled.

Alonso: 1st round pick, high OBP in the minors, limited power

Kotchman: 1st round pick, high OBP in the minors, limited power

Fact is Kotchman was better in the minors.

I think you are reliving your past.

He certainly could be Kotchman...Kotchman had a lot of power zapped from his wrist injuries IMO.

However, you know what other good fielding first baseman showed little power in the minors? AGon.

Now, Alonso was around 1 year older or so when they played in similar leagues but Alonso also didn't get to play in the PCL.

Alonso had a slightly higher career OBP, Slugging and OPS in the minors. BA was very similar with AGon having a slight edge.

Alonso walked once every 8 at bats in the minors...AGon once every 9.5 at bats. AGon's walk rate was once every 7.5 at bats from his age 21 season and on.

K rates were the same.

Just as I was wrong about Kotchman developing power, I was right about AGon developing power, which many on here argued with me that he wouldn't.

I agree Alonso could go either way. Hell, Kotchman's first Ml seasons were pretty solid and then his development stalled.

Too much upside IMO not to trade Guthrie, Tillman or Scott for him especially when you consider our needs.

http://thebaseballcube.com/players/G/Adrian-Gonzalez.shtml

http://thebaseballcube.com/players/A/Yonder-Alonso.shtml

[wildcard]

He certainly could be Kotchman...Kotchman had a lot of power zapped from his wrist injuries IMO.

However, you know what other good fielding first baseman showed little power in the minors? AGon.

Now, Alonso was around 1 year older or so when they played in similar leagues but Alonso also didn't get to play in the PCL.

Alonso had a slightly higher career OBP, Slugging and OPS in the minors. BA was very similar with AGon having a slight edge.

Alonso walked once every 8 at bats in the minors...AGon once every 9.5 at bats. AGon's walk rate was once every 7.5 at bats from his age 21 season and on.

K rates were the same.

Just as I was wrong about Kotchman developing power, I was right about AGon developing power, which many on here argued with me that he wouldn't.

I agree Alonso could go either way. Hell, Kotchman's first Ml seasons were pretty solid and then his development stalled.

Too much upside IMO not to trade Guthrie, Tillman or Scott for him especially when you consider our needs.

http://thebaseballcube.com/players/G/Adrian-Gonzalez.shtml

http://thebaseballcube.com/players/A/Yonder-Alonso.shtml

There is nothing very similar between AGon and Alonso.

AGon was a high school draftee. Alonso went to college.

By 23 AGon was showing power at AAA although it was in a hitters league

AT 23 Alonzo didn't hit near as well and if anything looks like a doubles hitter but he was in the International League which is a harder league to hit in.

Not Really much similar there.

The most impressive thing about Alonso is what he did in college at the U. He has not translated that to the pro ranks yet. But I can see where you think he might in the future.

If you want some one at is similar to Alonso try Tyler Townsend. Tyler is a year younger but they hit similar in college and Tyler is moving up in the organization similar to Alonso. So the O's already have a similar player in their system.

http://thebaseballcube.com/players/T/Tyler-Townsend.shtml

http://thebaseballcube.com/players/A/Yonder-Alonso.shtml

[Stotle]

There is nothing very similar between AGon and Alonso.

AGon was a high school draftee. Alonso went to college.

By 23 AGon was showing power at AAA although it was in a hitters league

AT 23 Alonzo didn't hit near as well and if anything looks like a doubles hitter but he was in the International League which is a harder league to hit in.

Not Really much similar there.

The most impressive thing about Alonso is what he did in college at the U. He has not translated that to the pro ranks yet. But I can see where you think he might in the future.

If you want some one at is similar to Alonso try Tyler Townsend. Tyler is a year younger but they hit similar in college and Tyler is moving up in the organization similar to Alonso. So the O's already have a similar player in their system.

http://thebaseballcube.com/players/T/Tyler-Townsend.shtml

http://thebaseballcube.com/players/A/Yonder-Alonso.shtml

Alonso is similar to Townsend in college. We're just going to ignore the fact that Alonso was playing in the ACC and Townsend was playing in the Sun Belt Conference? We'll also ignore that unless Townsend makes his big league debut next year then Alonso will have progressed through the minors more quickly (and with several BA distinguishing awards, such as Hot Sheet appearances and League Top 20 appearances?

Cool. That makes total sense.

[Stotle]

In terms of BA and power? Sure, I can dig it. Do I think he'll have a career walk rate of 14 percent and a career OBP of .400? No. He's disciplined, and I suppose you could call that his ceiling, but I think it's unlikely that he walks a hundred times a year with middling power numbers.

In any case, a .300/.380/.480 line wouldn't surprise me at all. He's a safe bat in terms of control and discipline. The only reason I brought up ceiling was because I didn't think his was ever high enough to warrant a top 10 selection in that draft. I had him 15-30 based mostly on the safety of his bat.

He's still a very solid prospect, though.

Yes, definitely think (Olerud) that is his ceiling. If you feel more comfortable with saying his ceiling is a .380-85 OBP and not a .395-.400, fine. I don't think it matters much with regards to the comp.

His pitch-ID is generally solid and he has good control of the barrel. I'd absolutely say he's capable of Olerud numbers if he progresses to his max. I think most prospects are unlikely to hit their absolute ceiling, but that doesn't stop their ceiling from existing.

The line I posted earlier is something I think is attainable. I don't know that he'll hit for lots of HR power, but I think he can be a good #2 or #6 in a tier 1 line-up.

[GoldGlove21]

Alonso is similar to Townsend in college. We're just going to ignore the fact that Alonso was playing in the ACC and Townsend was playing in the Sun Belt Conference? We'll also ignore that unless Townsend makes his big league debut next year then Alonso will have progressed through the minors more quickly (and with several BA distinguishing awards, such as Hot Sheet appearances and League Top 20 appearances?

Cool. That makes total sense.

In 2009 Baseball America had Alonso ranked as the #35 prospect in the MiL. In 2010 Baseball America had him ranked #45 overall. I am not saying these ranking matter all that much, but they obviously like Alonso's upside enough to make him a top 50 prospect back to back years.

If he were a Baltimore prospect would he be the best position player we had in the system outside of Machado?

[Stotle]

In 2009 Baseball America had Alonso ranked as the #35 prospect in the MiL. In 2010 Baseball America had him ranked #45 overall. I am not saying these ranking matter all that much, but they obviously like Alonso's upside enough to make him a top 50 prospect back to back years.

If he were a Baltimore prospect would he be the best position player we had in the system outside of Machado?

I have been sitting on Hoes for a while, which made me stop and think...

Yeah, I guess I would have him right ahead of Hoes. He's done it at AA and his August at AAA was very impressive. Probably Machado/Britton/Alonso/Hoes as my top 4.

[Sports Guy]

There is nothing very similar between AGon and Alonso.

AGon was a high school draftee. Alonso went to college.

By 23 AGon was showing power at AAA although it was in a hitters league

AT 23 Alonzo didn't hit near as well and if anything looks like a doubles hitter but he was in the International League which is a harder league to hit in.

Not Really much similar there.

The most impressive thing about Alonso is what he did in college at the U. He has not translated that to the pro ranks yet. But I can see where you think he might in the future.

If you want some one at is similar to Alonso try Tyler Townsend. Tyler is a year younger but they hit similar in college and Tyler is moving up in the organization similar to Alonso. So the O's already have a similar player in their system.

http://thebaseballcube.com/players/T/Tyler-Townsend.shtml

http://thebaseballcube.com/players/A/Yonder-Alonso.shtml

Wow...its good to know that you are both a homer and irrational when discussing things other than our potential record this coming season. No offense but when this is your reponse to what I posted, I really see no reason to attempt to discuss things further with you.

[Sports Guy]

In the 2010 BA prospect handbook, they said that Alonso has above average power but his power was effected by a broken hamate bone(in his hand) last year.

Now, his power was just ok last year and perhaps, BA would now disagree with the idea that he has above average power.

[Stotle]

In the 2010 BA prospect handbook, they said that Alonso has above average power but his power was effected by a broken hamate bone(in his hand) last year.

Now, his power was just ok last year and perhaps, BA would now disagree with the idea that he has above average power.

Part of the issue is translating raw power to in-game. He has the raw power to launch them -- 55/60. If his in-game approach and swing don't allow him to utilize the raw power, however, he could be looking at 50 in-game, which is probably light for 1B. If he gets on base at a .360+ clip it won't matter, but you'll want to have power elsewhere in the line-up (I'd think).

[Ruzious]

His ceiling is John Olerud (which would be pretty outstanding). If he falls short of that, he can still be .285/.365/.450 bat. A good #2 or #6 on a tier 1 team.

Looking at his minor league stats (particularly at AAA) and age, I don't see it. Were they a fluke, or what am I missing? School me.

Edit - I guess your last post gives your reasoning, and SG's broken hamate info sheds light on it.

[Stotle]

Looking at his minor league stats (particularly at AAA) and age, I don't see it. Were they a fluke, or what am I missing? School me.

I'm not sure what you are looking for -- I don't think there is statistical evidence pointing to power increase. The best I can do is anecdotal.

He has solid pitch-ID, good hands and handles the barrel well. Through the minors he regularly walked around 10% or more of his plate appearances and struck out in fewer than 20% of his plate appearances (both general markers for scouting purposes). He graduated from the minors in just 222 games. I think it's likely you see a more gaudy stat line if CIN gave him a year at HiA a year at AA and a year at AAA/ML.

[LookinUp]

The hype is a bit too high... over Yonder. Looking at how his SO/W rate dramatically changed on the bad side after AA at 23 years old can't be a good sign.

This post seems to have been ignored. Anyone have any thoughts?

It seems like a red flag, but I'm not clear to what degree.

[Stotle]

This post seems to have been ignored. Anyone have any thoughts?

It seems like a red flag, but I'm not clear to what degree.

I think it is locked in on age and ignores experience. Alonso spent less than two seasons in the minors, regardless of age. It isn't the same as a 23 year old that was turning 21 in his first year of MiL ball, or who had been drafted out of HS.