1B Possibility?

[wildcard]

Alonso is similar to Townsend in college. We're just going to ignore the fact that Alonso was playing in the ACC and Townsend was playing in the Sun Belt Conference? We'll also ignore that unless Townsend makes his big league debut next year then Alonso will have progressed through the minors more quickly (and with several BA distinguishing awards, such as Hot Sheet appearances and League Top 20 appearances?

Cool. That makes total sense.

Yes, I totally agree that the college league are different. But in baseball good players come from everywhere. The leagues are not what makes Townsend and Alonso similar. Its what they did in college, how that has translated to their minor league career so far plus their limited power and high OBP after coming to the minors.

The too are certainly much more similar to each other the AGon is to either of them IMO.

I am not including the awards. Those as you point out may not make them similar. But I just didn't see that much similar between Alonso and AGon at this point in Alonso career.

[Stotle]

Yes, I totally agree that the college league are different. But in baseball good players come from everywhere. The leagues are not what makes Townsend and Alonso similar. Its what they did in college, how that has translated to their minor league career so far plus their limited power and high OBP after coming to the minors.

The too are certainly much more similar to each other the AGon is to either of them IMO.

I am not including the awards. Those as you point out may not make them similar. But I just didn't see that much similar between Alonso and AGon at this point in Alonso career.

I am certainly not predicting an AGon like progression for Alonso. But to say Baltimore has their Alonso in Townsend is incorrect.

[wildcard]

I am certainly not predicting an AGon like progression for Alonso. But to say Baltimore has their Alonso in Townsend is incorrect.

I can accept that. I wasn't looking at the whole picture when I suggested Townsend. I was just looking at the stats and not considering the college leagues or awards that makes up Alonso pedigree.

[Sports Guy]

Yes, I totally agree that the college league are different. But in baseball good players come from everywhere. The leagues are not what makes Townsend and Alonso similar. Its what they did in college, how that has translated to their minor league career so far plus their limited power and high OBP after coming to the minors.

The too are certainly much more similar to each other the AGon is to either of them IMO.

I am not including the awards. Those as you point out may not make them similar. But I just didn't see that much similar between Alonso and AGon at this point in Alonso career.

Really? Their numbers are practically the same and you don't see similarities? Sounds to me that you are just being difficult. I find it amusing how you look at Kotchman and feel that is a definite comp but AGon isn't..Why don't you just say that you have a clear agenda and move on from that?

[Stotle]

Really? Their numbers are practically the same and you don't see similarities? Sounds to me that you are just being difficult. I find it amusing how you look at Kotchman and feel that is a definite comp but AGon isn't..Why don't you just say that you have a clear agenda and move on from that?

Fair point regarding willingness to make one comp and not another. The same, it's tough to "project" an AGon breakout. We can say that Alonso's numbers don't preclude later emergence of elite power, but I wouldn't go quite so far as to say that we should expect it (I don't know that you were going that far -- I'm just completing my thoughts).

[wildcard]

Really? Their numbers are practically the same and you don't see similarities? Sounds to me that you are just being difficult. I find it amusing how you look at Kotchman and feel that is a definite comp but AGon isn't..Why don't you just say that you have a clear agenda and move on from that?

Yeah, my agenda is I don't see what Alonso has shown so far to be similar to AGon. And I think you would admit that both Kotchman and Alonso had minor league careers where they where better on the OBP then power. So there is some similarity there.

[allstar1579]

Fair point regarding willingness to make one comp and not another. The same, it's tough to "project" an AGon breakout. We can say that Alonso's numbers don't preclude later emergence of elite power, but I wouldn't go quite so far as to say that we should expect it (I don't know that you were going that far -- I'm just completing my thoughts).

AGonz is absolutely the exception, not the rule, but I probably shouldn't have opened that can of worms when I made the comparison.

I meant the late-blooming thing, not that he would necessarily hit that level. Gonz had been given up on by TEX and FLA before he was 24, and he was a no. 1 overall pick.

I think that eventually Alonso figures out how to harness some of that raw power, but it will start out as doubles for a couple years before it turns to HR. He's gotta work through the progressions on it I think.

I really feel his value is down right now which is the best time to jump on a good prospect, especially at a position we obviously need to fill.

On a related note, where would you rank Alonso in our top 10 prospects if we got him right now?

[Stotle]

AGonz is absolutely the exception, not the rule, but I probably shouldn't have opened that can of worms when I made the comparison.

I meant the late-blooming thing, not that he would necessarily hit that level. Gonz had been given up on by TEX and FLA before he was 24, and he was a no. 1 overall pick.

I think that eventually Alonso figures out how to harness some of that raw power, but it will start out as doubles for a couple years before it turns to HR. He's gotta work through the progressions on it I think.

I really feel his value is down right now which is the best time to jump on a good prospect, especially at a position we obviously need to fill.

On a related note, where would you rank Alonso in our top 10 prospects if we got him right now?

I'd assume he slots in behind Machado/Britton but ahead of Hoes. I don't think I'd rate him ahead of either of the top two, but he's done a little more than Hoes and I think he's a slightly safer bet (though Hoes is my boi).

[allstar1579]

I'd assume he slots in behind Machado/Britton but ahead of Hoes. I don't think I'd rate him ahead of either of the top two, but he's done a little more than Hoes and I think he's a slightly safer bet (though Hoes is my boi).

I was thinking the same thing, I like Hoes a lot, but I was having a hard time putting him ahead of Yonder.

I think it helps that people realize he would be our 3rd-4th best prospect if we picked him up from day 1. He's better than he's getting credit for.

Thanks for the input

[MrOrange82]

I was thinking the same thing, I like Hoes a lot, but I was having a hard time putting him ahead of Yonder.

I think it helps that people realize he would be our 3rd-4th best prospect if we picked him up from day 1. He's better than he's getting credit for.

Thanks for the input

I'm not trying to be snide, but saying he's the 3rd or 4th best Oriole prospect isn't saying much. IMO, the only worthwhile questions (which have been gone over and over in this thread) are (1) how far is Alonso from the majors and (2) what's his floor/ceiling? In terms of giving him/not giving him credit, those questions are the only ones that register with me.

[crawjo]

I was just suggesting Arrieta for Smoak.

Yea?

Nay?

Seattle would never do that trade.

[Sports Guy]

Fair point regarding willingness to make one comp and not another. The same, it's tough to "project" an AGon breakout. We can say that Alonso's numbers don't preclude later emergence of elite power, but I wouldn't go quite so far as to say that we should expect it (I don't know that you were going that far -- I'm just completing my thoughts).

As usual, I agree with everything you say here...However, it is foolish to proclaim one comp as the truth and discount another when the stats are essentially the same.

Yeah, my agenda is I don't see what Alonso has shown so far to be similar to AGon. And I think you would admit that both Kotchman and Alonso had minor league careers where they where better on the OBP then power. So there is some similarity there.

Kotchman and AGon also profiled similarly in the minors...Again, you have a clear agenda. You can not say, with any kind of fact(as you are) that Alonso will turn into Kotchman but discount the AGon comp..I already showed you the similarities..The fact that you don't see the same stats is absurd and you know it. You can see the BA, OBP, slugging, BB rate, K rates, etc...You can see that they are all practically identical. To act as if you can't is arguably the poorest thing I have ever seen on this board. And then, to throw TT's name in the mix is just laughable.

[MrOrange82]

Kotchman and AGon also profiled similarly in the minors...Again, you have a clear agenda. You can not say, with any kind of fact(as you are) that Alonso will turn into Kotchman but discount the AGon comp..I already showed you the similarities..The fact that you don't see the same stats is absurd and you know it. You can see the BA, OBP, slugging, BB rate, K rates, etc...You can see that they are all practically identical. To act as if you can't is arguably the poorest thing I have ever seen on this board. And then, to throw TT's name in the mix is just laughable.

Am I getting the proper gist when I read the above to mean "all comps should be regarded equally if reasonable"?

I mean, if that's the case...how many players who profile as XYZ in the minors turn into the Casey Kotchman's of the world, and how many turn into AGon?

[Sports Guy]

Am I getting the proper gist when I read the above to mean "all comps should be regarded equally if reasonable"?

I mean, if that's the case...how many players who profile as XYZ in the minors turn into the Casey Kotchman's of the world, and how many turn into AGon?

When their is really nothing discernable between the 3 players(in the minors), then yes.

I mean, there could be things like bat speed, etc...But the profiles of these guys are very similar. Hell, all 3 even dealt with wrist or hand injuries in the minors.

[MrOrange82]

When their is really nothing discernable between the 3 players(in the minors), then yes.

I mean, there could be things like bat speed, etc...But the profiles of these guys are very similar. Hell, all 3 even dealt with wrist or hand injuries in the minors.

In that case, seems to me it isn't unfair to make the AGon comp., but when there's so much uncertainty surrounding a MiLer (and it seems there is a fair bit of uncertainty in re: Alonso), I think it's advisable to keep in mind that AGon-type players are the exceptions to the rule when it comes to player development.

When a player like Alonso can be fairly compared to both Kotchman and AGon, and if history is any indication (insofar as how many players actually wind up being all-stars), Alonso's probably more likely to wind up a "Kotchman."