So, there's 4 remaining Type A free agents on the market...

[MrOrange82]

It doesn't matter what I write -- you had your mind made up on the matter four weeks ago with no chance to change it. If you had it your way, BAL would never sign a top tier FA because you would never want any risk that they'd be overpaying or stuck with a contract that was not productive at the end.

But, you listen to XM MLB Radio so you are certainly qualified to list the estimated demands and signing levels of various high-priced free agents. I've appreciated your service this winter, as it has helped me not to hold the Baltimore front office to any kind of standard with regards to their signings.

Help me shake my antipathy towards Beltre. He's given every indication to me that he's a guy who takes it easier once his money's in the bank, so even though he's very productive generally, I can't help but be irritated by the idea that he's *capable* of putting up huge numbers, but...doesn't with any consistency.

Have you seen him play a lot? Do you have any info in re: the kind of clubhouse influence he is? What makes him the kind of player you'd stretch the budget for? Strictly his average production?

I want to keep an open mind, but it's difficult. Also, regardless of how easily (or not) Reynolds could move across the diamond, I'm very much frustrated that potential solutions to the Orioles' problems frequently seem to revolve around moving players from one position to another. We traded for Reynolds as a third baseman, and I'd prefer to keep him there.

[El Gordo]

It doesn't matter what I write -- you had your mind made up on the matter four weeks ago with no chance to change it. If you had it your way, BAL would never sign a top tier FA because you would never want any risk that they'd be overpaying or stuck with a contract that was not productive at the end.

But, you listen to XM MLB Radio so you are certainly qualified to list the estimated demands and signing levels of various high-priced free agents. I've appreciated your service this winter, as it has helped me not to hold the Baltimore front office to any kind of standard with regards to their signings.

I would offer Beltre 5/70 MM, but I really doubt he would take it over the 5/70 LAAA offered. Why do you think he would, when everything we have heard, indicates he doesn't want to play here? As far as top tier FA signings, which ones besides Dunn, would you have advocated. I didn't want Dunn, unless he would agree to DH. If he would have, then I would have offere 4/60 MM. Is that too risk adverse for you? Or would you have offered 4/60 and put up with his glove at 1B?

[Stotle]

Help me shake my antipathy towards Beltre. He's given every indication to me that he's a guy who takes it easier once his money's in the bank, so even though he's very productive generally, I can't help but be irritated by the idea that he's *capable* of putting up huge numbers, but...doesn't with any consistency.

Have you seen him play a lot? Do you have any info in re: the kind of clubhouse influence he is? What makes him the kind of player you'd stretch the budget for? Strictly his average production?

I want to keep an open mind, but it's difficult. Also, regardless of how easily (or not) Reynolds could move across the diamond, I'm very much frustrated that potential solutions to the Orioles' problems frequently seem to revolve around moving players from one position to another. We traded for Reynolds as a third baseman, and I'd prefer to keep him there.

I've seen him play a fair amount. I disagree that his production is "average" -- to me he is pretty clearly one of the best 3B in the game. He is athletic enough that he believe he maintains that production into his next contract.

I disagree he takes off years in between contracts. He had three very good years for Seattle, bookended by two stinkers. Overall he was certainly worth the contract they gave him. Had Boston not had a ready-made, younger corner infielder available to them (Gonzalez) I strongly believe he would have ended-up back in Boston for a four year deal with a vesting option for year 5.

I don't see an issue with moving Reynolds. I mean, isn't the best case scenario that Josh Bell clicks at AAA this year and BAL has a cheap long-term solution at third?

Anyway, I'm not dead set on Beltre being a "must target". I just think he's the only Type A worth pursuing, and I think BAL could build a winner with him in the mix. They can also build a winner without him in the mix.

[El Gordo]

I think Beltre is one of the top 5 3B in the game today. He has been worth on average about 14 MM per year. Given his age I wouldn't expect him to average more than that over the next 5. That means 5/70 MM. Given a probable decline in the last two years or so, the 5/70 MM would also include the O's surcharge. But that's it. I wouldn't go any higher and I'm pretty sure Boras would expect us to.

[Stotle]

I would offer Beltre 5/70 MM, but I really doubt he would take it over the 5/70 LAAA offered. Why do you think he would, when everything we have heard, indicates he doesn't want to play here? As far as top tier FA signings, which ones besides Dunn, would you have advocated. I didn't want Dunn, unless he would agree to DH. If he would have, then I would have offere 4/60 MM. Is that too risk adverse for you? Or would you have offered 4/60 and put up with his glove at 1B?

I think, of all that is reported in the media, some is true, some is false and some is half-truths.

This year, I guess I would have preferred a Werth-style contract for Dunn. Not the same years/numbers, but target him early and slap a big offer on the table. Tell him 1B is his this year but after that the team is looking at all avenues to improve, so he could be shifted to LF or DH depending on what direction the team goes. I guess size would have been around 4/60. I have no idea if that would have worked, but I don't think BAL's strength in negotiating is ever going to be sitting back and assessing what other teams are doing. They just aren't going to convince guys to come to BAL if they are an "also ran" among several teams talking to the FA.

Crawford could have been a similar situation. That would have required supplemental moves, but I think that's fine. A front office should be able to modify their plans on the fly to take advantage of assets that are available.

ABryant has said this a couple times, and I agree: Baltimore seems to have come into the off-season uncertain as to exactly what they wanted to do. They sniffed around VMart, Dunn, Konerko but didn't push in. They've upgraded a couple of positions and there is an outside shot Hardy reverts to his old form. But they're once again in a situation where they really aren't "going for it" and they really aren't making moves to bring in younger long term guys. So the plan looks like another year of "see what we have", which is 100% what 2010 was supposed to be all about.

It sucks that Reimold was out last year. It sucks that the pitching didn't progress until late and that Wieters didn't have a monster breakout. It sucks that Jones hasn't turned into a consistant producer. But at some point you have to decide if you are going to try and win with your core. Some of these young players will be in parts of their third seasons as MLers. BAL should have a pretty darn good idea exactly what they are going to need to address in order to compete with BOS/NYA/TAM. I would assume 1B was on that list and a middle-order bat as well. Maybe there is something creative in the works to address it -- I don't think LaRoche pushes BAL over the top. In that case, repeat process next year.

The only answer I can come up with right now is that Baltimore believes they really will not have to add a significant top tier player to the mix, but that the significant player is going to emerge from Wieters/Jones. I

[MrOrange82]

I've seen him play a fair amount. I disagree that his production is "average" -- to me he is pretty clearly one of the best 3B in the game. He is athletic enough that he believe he maintains that production into his next contract.

I disagree he takes off years in between contracts. He had three very good years for Seattle, bookended by two stinkers. Overall he was certainly worth the contract they gave him. Had Boston not had a ready-made, younger corner infielder available to them (Gonzalez) I strongly believe he would have ended-up back in Boston for a four year deal with a vesting option for year 5.

I don't see an issue with moving Reynolds. I mean, isn't the best case scenario that Josh Bell clicks at AAA this year and BAL has a cheap long-term solution at third?

Anyway, I'm not dead set on Beltre being a "must target". I just think he's the only Type A worth pursuing, and I think BAL could build a winner with him in the mix. They can also build a winner without him in the mix.

My intention wasn't to characterize Beltre's production as "average." I meant "average for him" - his average.

As for taking off between contract years...I don't think I could argue that someone who puts up his numbers merely sits on his haunches waiting for his next payday. His production is typically very good. I meant literally what I said: it seems like he takes it easier during non-contract years. I can't think of any other way to explain his exploding during two of his three contract years (the two in which he was healthy) and coming back down to Earth thereafter. If he'd put up a massive (7+ WAR) season in a non-contract year, my perception would necessarily be different, but the fact is that he's never exceeded 4.9 in a non-walk year (and 4.1 is his next highest non-walk year output). Like I said...I'm uncomfortable with the idea that Beltre is capable of putting up gigantic numbers and will likely be paid accordingly, but he only seems to put up those numbers when his next contract is in issue. No, he's not a slouch otherwise, but he's not all-world, either.

In re: Bell. Honestly, I didn't like what I saw from him last year, I think his swing is awful from both sides, and I'm really not counting on him for anything in the future. IMO, Reynolds should be viewed as a potential LT option at 3B, even though he's obviously much more expensive than Bell. I should add: I'm not rooting against Bell, I'm just highly skeptical.

[Stotle]

I think Beltre is one of the top 5 3B in the game today. He has been worth on average about 14 MM per year. Given his age I wouldn't expect him to average more than that over the next 5. That means 5/70 MM. Given a probable decline in the last two years or so, the 5/70 MM would also include the O's surcharge. But that's it. I wouldn't go any higher and I'm pretty sure Boras would expect us to.

What about the increasing value of a win over that time?

I think you would be surprised what Boras might value outside of year/dollar when it comes to crafting a contract.

[Stotle]

My intention wasn't to characterize Beltre's production as "average." I meant "average for him" - his average.

As for taking off between contract years...I don't think I could argue that someone who puts up his numbers merely sits on his haunches waiting for his next payday. His production is typically very good. I meant literally what I said: it seems like he takes it easier during non-contract years. I can't think of any other way to explain his exploding during two of his three contract years (the two in which he was healthy) and coming back down to Earth thereafter. If he'd put up a massive (7+ WAR) season in a non-contract year, my perception would necessarily be different, but the fact is that he's never exceeded 4.9 in a non-walk year (and 4.1 is his next highest non-walk year output). Like I said...I'm uncomfortable with the idea that Beltre is capable of putting up gigantic numbers and will likely be paid accordingly, but he only seems to put up those numbers when his next contract is in issue. No, he's not a slouch otherwise, but he's not all-world, either.

In re: Bell. Honestly, I didn't like what I saw from him last year, I think his swing is awful from both sides, and I'm really not counting on him for anything in the future. IMO, Reynolds should be viewed as a potential LT option at 3B, even though he's obviously much more expensive than Bell. I should add: I'm not rooting against Bell, I'm just highly skeptical.

Understood re: "average"

I think it's fair to say Beltre isn't a 7 WAR player, but if he's just a 3.3-4.2 WAR player, that is significant. His year in BOS was in a great park for RHH and he was in a good lineup. I don't think it's anything suspicious -- just Beltre having a strong year. He would make a whole lot more money if he put up monster years outside of "contract years", so what would his incentive be to only go all out during that contract year? It just doesn't add up.

I agree Reynolds should be viewed as a potential answer for the next few years, but I would be disappointed if BAL left it at that and neglected to try and upgrade there, as well.

[MrOrange82]

Understood re: "average"

I think it's fair to say Beltre isn't a 7 WAR player, but if he's just a 3.3-4.2 WAR player, that is significant. His year in BOS was in a great park for RHH and he was in a good lineup. I don't think it's anything suspicious -- just Beltre having a strong year. He would make a whole lot more money if he put up monster years outside of "contract years", so what would his incentive be to only go all out during that contract year? It just doesn't add up.

I agree Reynolds should be viewed as a potential answer for the next few years, but I would be disappointed if BAL left it at that and neglected to try and upgrade there, as well.

I just don't know. The guy's hit .300+ twice - both times in contract years. I'm really curious if there's any reputation-press out there about his work ethic and whether it "shifts" at all when his next contract isn't around the corner. As you pointed out, though, 3.3-4.2 WAR is significant...and so is the amount of money one can earn for playing in that range, Maybe the difference between a 70+ million dollar contract and a 100+ million dollar contract isn't big enough to spur him to really work his --- off during non-contract years? That's approaching a degree of speculation that I couldn't possibly validate, obviously.

You make a valid point in re: always trying to improve (basically the "best available" draft mentality?). Would you say, then, that getting a guy like Beltre and moving Reynolds would shift the Orioles' search for a MOO bat to LF next winter? I haven't even looked at who's going to be available. I swear, this stuff is starting to make my head hurt

[El Gordo]

I think, of all that is reported in the media, some is true, some is false and some is half-truths.

This year, I guess I would have preferred a Werth-style contract for Dunn. Not the same years/numbers, but target him early and slap a big offer on the table. Tell him 1B is his this year but after that the team is looking at all avenues to improve, so he could be shifted to LF or DH depending on what direction the team goes. I guess size would have been around 4/60. I have no idea if that would have worked, but I don't think BAL's strength in negotiating is ever going to be sitting back and assessing what other teams are doing. They just aren't going to convince guys to come to BAL if they are an "also ran" among several teams talking to the FA.

Crawford could have been a similar situation. That would have required supplemental moves, but I think that's fine. A front office should be able to modify their plans on the fly to take advantage of assets that are available.

ABryant has said this a couple times, and I agree: Baltimore seems to have come into the off-season uncertain as to exactly what they wanted to do. They sniffed around VMart, Dunn, Konerko but didn't push in. They've upgraded a couple of positions and there is an outside shot Hardy reverts to his old form. But they're once again in a situation where they really aren't "going for it" and they really aren't making moves to bring in younger long term guys. So the plan looks like another year of "see what we have", which is 100% what 2010 was supposed to be all about.

It sucks that Reimold was out last year. It sucks that the pitching didn't progress until late and that Wieters didn't have a monster breakout. It sucks that Jones hasn't turned into a consistant producer. But at some point you have to decide if you are going to try and win with your core. Some of these young players will be in parts of their third seasons as MLers. BAL should have a pretty darn good idea exactly what they are going to need to address in order to compete with BOS/NYA/TAM. I would assume 1B was on that list and a middle-order bat as well. Maybe there is something creative in the works to address it -- I don't think LaRoche pushes BAL over the top. In that case, repeat process next year.

The only answer I can come up with right now is that Baltimore believes they really will not have to add a significant top tier player to the mix, but that the significant player is going to emerge from Wieters/Jones. I

I would have been on board for this kind of approach to Dunn. But these negotiations don't happen in a vacuum. I'm sure Dunn knew there was a good deal of interest in him from teams like the Chisox, so I think the offer would have had to be in the neighborhood of 4/70 to get his attention. Otherwise, why wouldn't he take 4/56 MM and the opportunity to split 1B/DH, from a contender, over 4/60 MM fom the O's? As to Crawford, if it took 7/140MM to get him away form LAAA and go to Boston, what would we have had to offer to get him to come here. Whatever, it would have been a rididculous overspend IM risk adverse O.

[Ruzious]

I've seen him play a fair amount. I disagree that his production is "average" -- to me he is pretty clearly one of the best 3B in the game. He is athletic enough that he believe he maintains that production into his next contract.

I disagree he takes off years in between contracts. He had three very good years for Seattle, bookended by two stinkers. Overall he was certainly worth the contract they gave him. Had Boston not had a ready-made, younger corner infielder available to them (Gonzalez) I strongly believe he would have ended-up back in Boston for a four year deal with a vesting option for year 5.

I don't see an issue with moving Reynolds. I mean, isn't the best case scenario that Josh Bell clicks at AAA this year and BAL has a cheap long-term solution at third?

Anyway, I'm not dead set on Beltre being a "must target". I just think he's the only Type A worth pursuing, and I think BAL could build a winner with him in the mix. They can also build a winner without him in the mix.

+1. He's the one arguably star quality player that seems to be undervalued. At some point, the O's have to spend to become an upper tier team, and this seems like a good opportunity to spend big money wisely. And getting him would give the O's franchise credibility. They don't have credibility, and they haven't for many years. Now, will Beltre come here? I don't know.

[El Gordo]

What about the increasing value of a win over that time?

I think you would be surprised what Boras might value outside of year/dollar when it comes to crafting a contract.

No I wouldn't be surprised, that's why he is asking 5/90. Are you saying you would go that high? Why did you say 5/70 earlier? What win value were you using?

[El Gordo]

+1. He's the one arguably star quality player that seems to be undervalued. At some point, the O's have to spend to become an upper tier team, and this seems like a good opportunity to spend big money wisely. And getting him would give the O's franchise credibility. They don't have credibility, and they haven't for many years. Now, will Beltre come here? I don't know.

SG has estimated 6/100 to get Beltre. This is one point on which I agree with him. Are you up for that kind of contract? Just how good is this guy? And how desparate are we? The difference between LaRoche and Beltre, will be the difference in the valus of their gloves primarily. Reynolds may well be better with the bat either of them.

[Stotle]

I just don't know. The guy's hit .300+ twice - both times in contract years. I'm really curious if there's any reputation-press out there about his work ethic and whether it "shifts" at all when his next contract isn't around the corner. As you pointed out, though, 3.3-4.2 WAR is significant...and so is the amount of money one can earn for playing in that range, Maybe the difference between a 70+ million dollar contract and a 100+ million dollar contract isn't big enough to spur him to really work his --- off during non-contract years? That's approaching a degree of speculation that I couldn't possibly validate, obviously.

You make a valid point in re: always trying to improve (basically the "best available" draft mentality?). Would you say, then, that getting a guy like Beltre and moving Reynolds would shift the Orioles' search for a MOO bat to LF next winter? I haven't even looked at who's going to be available. I swear, this stuff is starting to make my head hurt

Here is 2012 FA list according to Cots

I honestly think Baltimore's best bet next year is going to be improving through trade. I don't see big game changers available in 2012 -- maybe they make a run at a bounce-back Jose Reyes and slot him in as Roberts's replacement at the top of the order?

SS - Reyes

RF - Markakis

CA - Wieters (fingers crossed)

3B - Reynolds

DH - Scott

1B - ??

CF - Jones

LF - Reimold

2B - Roberts*

*I am thinking there is a fall-off in production by 2012, but if not he could be at the top w/Reyes in this scenario.

BAL has around $30M in commitments for 2012, with another $20M maybe in arb-elgible increases? Another $3-5M or so in pre-arb-payroll? I guess I would hope they are looking at the available payroll in 2012 and the available FA in 2012 and determining how much they have to spend. I think either of the following orders would be pretty great, including 15-17M per for Dunn/Beltre and around 13-15M per for Reyes:

SS - Reyes

RF - Markakis

CA - Wieters

1B - Dunn

3B - Reynolds

DH - Scott

CF - Jones

LF - Reimold

2B - Roberts

OR

SS - Reyes

RF - Markakis

CA - Wieters

1B - Reynolds

DH - Scott

3B - Beltre

CF - Jones

LF - Reimold

2B - Roberts

If Roberts is still a .350 OBP kind of guy, you could even slot him and Reyes at the top and slide everyone down one. I could see something like that working and BAL staying under $100M for payroll.

But this is just spitballing -- I don't know that these would work out once you dig into the numbers and projections. Maybe these lineups stink in 2012? I honestly hanven't done the legwork. Just on the surface, I would think those are offenses that could compete.

[SrMeowMeow]

SG has estimated 6/100 to get Beltre. This is one point on which I agree with him. Are you up for that kind of contract? Just how good is this guy? And how desparate are we? The difference between LaRoche and Beltre, will be the difference in the valus of their gloves primarily. Reynolds may well be better with the bat either of them.

And the difference between their gloves is vast.

I'd give him 5/85 or 6/90. He won't get, approach, dream about, or ask for 6/100 from any team.