So, there's 4 remaining Type A free agents on the market...

[Stotle]

No I wouldn't be surprised, that's why he is asking 5/90. Are you saying you would go that high? Why did you say 5/70 earlier? What win value were you using?

I can't see $18M a year for Beltre, no.

Value being approximately $4M per win on the FA market a couple years ago. Was estimated around $4.5M more recently. I believe conventional wisdom is that it will be around $5 - 5.5M come 2015. So, a 3 WAR player would cost approx. $16.5M on the open market in 2015.

These are all back-of-the-napkin approximations. I'd have to dig around to find the non-propietary writings.

EDIT -- re: Boras, he is more willing to concede $/years than folks generally give credit for, provide other mechanisms are in place on the deal.

[El Gordo]

And the difference between their gloves is vast.I'd give him 5/85 or 6/90. He won't get, approach, dream about, or ask for 6/100 from any team.

Approximately 1.5 W's. Vast? Worth the difference between 7 MM per and 17 MM?

[MrOrange82]

Here is 2012 FA list according to Cots ...

But this is just spitballing -- I don't know that these would work out once you dig into the numbers and projections. Maybe these lineups stink in 2012? I honestly haven't done the legwork. Just on the surface, I would think those are offenses that could compete.

Hah...guess the odds aren't good that Cano leaves NY anytime soon? Reyes is an interesting option, though I want to see how he performs this year (of course, the better he does, the higher his price tag).

You think the Orioles have enough remaining depth to swing a significant trade?

This conversation has got me wondering again about guys like Alonso (i.e. less-than-sure things, but blocked/probably cheap(er)). Is there anyone else out there besides Alonso, Blanks (esp. since he's not blocked anymore), Kila, etc. who piques your interest at first or third? Because yeah...that list of FA's isn't very inspiring...

[Stotle]

Hah...guess the odds aren't good that Cano leaves NY anytime soon? Reyes is an interesting option, though I want to see how he performs this year (of course, the better he does, the higher his price tag).

You think the Orioles have enough remaining depth to swing a significant trade?

This conversation has got me wondering again about guys like Alonso (i.e. less-than-sure things, but blocked/probably cheap(er)). Is there anyone else out there besides Alonso, Blanks (esp. since he's not blocked anymore), Kila, etc. who piques your interest at first or third? Because yeah...that list of FA's isn't very inspiring...

I like Alonso and Blanks -- both carry risk and provide solid upside. I like Wilson Betemit (KAN) as a potential lowish-cost trade target once Moustakas is ready (mid-2011). Maybe you can build a deal around Soria/Betemit (if Soria fails in the rotation) and Guthrie or something like that. I wouldn't expect Betemit to be a game changer, though. Last year came out of nowhere. The Diamondbacks will eventually have depth at the corners, but that will be in 2013 or so.

I think the best option is drafting/signing int'l. Sano would have slotted in nicely at 3B in the system, with a chance to develop into a middle-order bat. If I'm Baltimore I may take a chance on someone like George Springer (CF, UConn) in the draft. He's a CF, not 3B, but a potential impact bat. Though he's raw and has holes with wood, there is huge upside -- like Heyward-esque upside -- if he develops. Whether or not Baltimore can develop him is a question. Also, he's a very risky pick, because the floor is someone who struggles to hit as a Major Leaguer. With the number of quality college arms available, I would assume Baltimore looks to someone like Cole/Purke/Jungmann/Bradley/Barnes/Gray/etc. whoever performs well this spring and is still there.

2nd round would be a great place to try and pick-up a power bat in this draft, as well. Later on I'd consider investing in Vogelbach and counting on his work ethic to lose the excess weight and help the bat develop (he dropped from 260+ to around 230lbs between July and October.

[MrOrange82]

I like Alonso and Blanks -- both carry risk and provide solid upside. I like Wilson Betemit (KAN) as a potential lowish-cost trade target once Moustakas is ready (mid-2011). Maybe you can build a deal around Soria/Betemit (if Soria fails in the rotation) and Guthrie or something like that. I wouldn't expect Betemit to be a game changer, though. Last year came out of nowhere. The Diamondbacks will eventually have depth at the corners, but that will be in 2013 or so.

I think the best option is drafting/signing int'l. Sano would have slotted in nicely at 3B in the system, with a chance to develop into a middle-order bat. If I'm Baltimore I may take a chance on someone like George Springer (CF, UConn) in the draft. He's a CF, not 3B, but a potential impact bat. Though he's raw and has holes with wood, there is huge upside -- like Heyward-esque upside -- if he develops. Whether or not Baltimore can develop him is a question. Also, he's a very risky pick, because the floor is someone who struggles to hit as a Major Leaguer. With the number of quality college arms available, I would assume Baltimore looks to someone like Cole/Purke/Jungmann/Bradley/Barnes/Gray/etc. whoever performs well this spring and is still there.

2nd round would be a great place to try and pick-up a power bat in this draft, as well. Later on I'd consider investing in Vogelbach and counting on his work ethic to lose the excess weight and help the bat develop (he dropped from 260+ to around 230lbs between July and October.

Thanks for the above, especially in re: the draft (I'm usually pretty uniformed when it comes to college/high school players). Wilson Betemit, former Braves wunderkind? Before you said something, I didn't even realize he'd put together a very solid half-season for KC. And yes, Sano would've been a welcome addition...sigh, spilled milk.

[Craig...No Dots]

Neither the quotations nor the "LOL" adds funny to the statement.

This is just hilarious to me. Well played. :rofl:

[SrMeowMeow]

Approximately 1.5 W's. Vast? Worth the difference between 7 MM per and 17 MM?

No, but it's an unfair comparison as Reynolds is cost-controlled and Beltre is not. It's also a strawman, as it's not an either-or situation. Double trouble!

[Arthur_Bryant]

As for taking off between contract years...I don't think I could argue that someone who puts up his numbers merely sits on his haunches waiting for his next payday. His production is typically very good. I meant literally what I said: it seems like he takes it easier during non-contract years. I can't think of any other way to explain his exploding during two of his three contract years (the two in which he was healthy) and coming back down to Earth thereafter.

Everybody has variation from season to season, and in many cases there is no concrete discernible reason for it. It just happens. In Beltre's case, it's tempting to ascribe some cause and effect to the timing with his walk years, but it's entirely probable that this is just coincidental.

In fact, I don't even know what "taking it easier" means on a season-long basis. That he goes through the season with less intensity, day to day? That he gives up on ground balls because he doesn't care if he catches them? That he gives away ABs because he doesn't really care whether he makes an out? That he only watches video and puts in cage time during his walk years, but can't be bothered to prepare any other time?There is such a disparity between a 2-WAR season and a 10-WAR season that he would have to be giving up on fielding plays and throwing away ABs all the time. And how does a player find that happy medium of just getting by without lapsing into complete apathy? Because you have to be trying to some extent to put up a 3-WAR or 4-WAR season.

And I just find that hard to believe. I don't believe that competitive instinct can be turned on and off that way. And, though I realize that it's just a job, it's still a game. Players want to win. Winning is more fun than losing. Getting a line drive double is more fun than popping up. Making a diving stop is more fun than watching the ball shoot through to the outfielder. Pro athletes usually get where they are, not just because of talent, but because of desire. And desire doesn't wax and wane with the phases of the moon.

Anyway, I would go 5/80, 6/85, somewhere in that range. Barring an unexpected shift in the market, that would probably be about $10MM than he will get elsewhere. If he is willing to turn down an extra $10MM to avoid Baltimore, then he really wants to avoid Baltimore, and there's nothing else to be done about it.

EDIT: Should add, that Dave Cameron of USS Mariner and Fangraphs is a pretty knowledgeable guy who saw plenty of Baltre over the years in Seattle, and I don't remember him once saying that Beltre was dogging it. In fact, Cameron was sorry to see Beltre leave, and made the case that he had more than repaid his contract.

[El Gordo]

No, but it's an unfair comparison as Reynolds is cost-controlled and Beltre is not. It's also a strawman, as it's not an either-or situation. Double trouble!

I was talking about the difference between LaRoche and Beltre. Reynolds would go to 1B, where I would assume his glove would be at least as good as LaRoche's. So the differnce is LaRoche's glove to Beltre's, since offensively they are similar. That difference amounts to less than 1.5 W's. Beltre would cost 17 MM and LaRoche about 7MM