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Matt Hobgood Shut Down With Shoulder Injury


Brendan25

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I'm sure everyone would like to look at the best case scenario, but I can count on one hand the amount of times a pitcher was shut down for shoulder soreness and rehab alone fixed the problem. in mnore cases than not, that rehab buys time until the eventual surgery.

Let's hope Matt can beat the odds, but it's a big reason why selecting a high school arm with an early first round pick is such a big gamble.

What does injury risk have to specifically do for making high school arms a gamble?

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I have been critical of the pick, but it makes me sad to read things like this:

"I wasn't hiding anything before the draft, they didn't get damaged goods. I didn't ask to be chosen there, I went out and had the senior year I did because I put in hard work and I've continued to do that."

It's just an unfortunate situation and I hate seeing him feel like he needs to address his "over-draft" accusers. At the end of the day, whether you're drafted 5th or 17th, you need to perform. But you can tell the complaining by the fanbase and/or the statements by draft analysts have gotten to him.

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Guest rochester

There is nothing good about this situation....This may sound too simplistic but unless it is a once-in-a-generation arm I would never use a 1rst round pick on a HS pitcher....the odds are too great - too many physical and mental things can happen to derail a career...Yes, I thought this before Hobgood as well...

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There is nothing good about this situation....This may sound too simplistic but unless it is a once-in-a-generation arm I would never use a 1rst round pick on a HS pitcher....the odds are too great - too many physical and mental things can happen to derail a career...Yes, I thought this before Hobgood as well...

That is why if you are going to go with the hs player that high. You better be getting the one with the highest ceiling.

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What does injury risk have to specifically do for making high school arms a gamble?

Because they haven't finished growing mentally or physically yet. You run the risk that they aren't going to take care of their body, or that they will push themselves trying to do too much too soon.

Probably not as much of as concern during the team controlled times, but the other couple months of the year you have to worry about players to take care of themselves on their own, the younger the player, the bigger the worry.

Not saying Matt did anything wrong, sometimes injuries just happen. But speaking in generalities there is always a little more to worry about with an 18 year old than a 22 year old.

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That was a great read. I take Hobgood at his word and it's finally refreshing to get the facts straight from the horse's mouth. No more mystery about his radar readings. Seems pretty much straight up that he's been 87-90 since turning pro. It also gives you a glimpse of what Jordan and the scouts were seeing during his senior year when he was cosistenly (according to himself) around 92-94 and touching 96-97. There is still some mystery about the loss of velocity but he certainly seems to feel there's a connection between his shoulder and the loss of velocity. Hopefully, he'll get back to 100% physically and we'll get to see it. It still remains a risky pick at the time but lets remember that that draft wasn't particularly strong at the top after the first couple of picks. I hope Hobgood comes back strong, if only to make people who are making defnitive statements about him and the pick, look silly down the road. If anything, this inury and Hobgood's belief that it effected him as early as Bluefield, strengthens the judgement that Jordan had in picking him.

How does it strengthen Jordan's judgment? I can agree that the injury is no knock on Jordan, but I fail to see how it reinforces Jordan's decision to draft Hobgood as a good one.

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Have you heard anything on what is actually going on with his shoulder? I have seen it called a strain rotator cuff. That seems better than a small tear. Just curious has to what your sources are saying. From his comments it sounds like this has been going on for a while and just recently got worse.

Well, with these types of situations, it all starts out as a "strain" or "tendonitis" or "inflamation". They don't find out it IS a tear until the treatment for the strain proves to be not effective. After this rehab Hobgood goes through, if he isn't "fixed" the next step I'd guess would be surgery. If you go back and look at Spoone's situation, it kinda started out similarly. His arm was sore, they rested him called it "tendonitis" I believe. He came back and it was still hurting him and they did surgery and found a SLAP tear.

Rehab is the first line of defense, if that doesn't work, its more than "tendonitis" or a "strain" and requires shoulder surgery.....For the doctors, its kinda like a wait and see(if this works) situation.

And, like I said above, if time in 2 offseasons hasn't healed the strain, I honestly don't see what rehab is gonna do for him.

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I do agree with this and it seems like common sense to me. I will be surprised if he doesn't wind up having surgery.

I too will be surprised if he doesn't end up having surgery. The question is, for me now is how much of that 92-97 MPH FB is he gonna regain? Could he lose more velocity after surgery, or will he regain some velocity?

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If we are to believe Hobgood, he was consistently throwing 92-94 his senior year while touching 96-97 on occasion. Most people are down on the pick because of the lack of velocity. Do you think we'd be hearing any of this if Hobgood was being clocked at 92-94 and hitting 96-97 the last 1 1/2 years?

Many have knocked Jordan for picking a HS pitcher, and yet the draft was weak in positional talent, and the strength of the draft looks to have been in HS pitching with Matzek, Miller, Wheeler, etc. going high. Since the draft, people have just piled on because of the radar readings and justificably so. Now we have some information which might explain the significant drop in velocity. I think it actually absolves Jordan of a lot of blame, if true. Are Hobgood's problems because of lack of talent or because of injury? There's no way to prove it was injury but Hobgood's interview could certainly lead one to that belief.

In the end, the only way Jordan comes out looking good is if Hobgood gets back to throwing 92-94 with that hammer curve he showed.

Don't we still end up in the same place we started, though? I mean, Baseball America, Keith Law, etc. stated Hobgood was a reach at 1:5, considering what was available and what they were hearing from the scouting community. That scouting community is the group of people that would have had radar guns on him for the entirety of his season.

I don't think anyone doubted his high school velocity save for doubting he was consistently in the mid- to upper-90s. I got the sense people piled on because they were told by the experts that Hobgood was a reach, and when he showed-up for pro ball he was underwhelming.

I mean, certainly no one thought Jordan would have drafted a thick-bodied righty that threw in the upper-80s at 1:5. It seems like a no brainer that the kid BAL drafted was not the kid throwing in the low minors. But at the same time, this is why organizations tend to stay away from non-projectable righties in the early goings. Plenty of HSers lose velo as a part of adjusting to the harsher demands of pro ball -- if there isn't likely to be more in the tank, you have to hope the kid is not someone that will lose a substantial amount of velo as he is required to throw more than once a week and against much better competition.

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Don't we still end up in the same place we started, though? I mean, Baseball America, Keith Law, etc. stated Hobgood was a reach at 1:5, considering what was available and what they were hearing from the scouting community. That scouting community is the group of people that would have had radar guns on him for the entirety of his season.

I don't think anyone doubted his high school velocity save for doubting he was consistently in the mid- to upper-90s. I got the sense people piled on because they were told by the experts that Hobgood was a reach, and when he showed-up for pro ball he was underwhelming.

I mean, certainly no one thought Jordan would have drafted a thick-bodied righty that threw in the upper-80s at 1:5. It seems like a no brainer that the kid BAL drafted was not the kid throwing in the low minors. But at the same time, this is why organizations tend to stay away from non-projectable righties in the early goings. Plenty of HSers lose velo as a part of adjusting to the harsher demands of pro ball -- if there isn't likely to be more in the tank, you have to hope the kid is not someone that will lose a substantial amount of velo as he is required to throw more than once a week and against much better competition.

This all makes good sense and everything, but something isn't adding up. I mean, if Hobgood SUPPOSEDLY touch 97/98 on occasion and sat 93-94, with the best hook among the HS draft prospects, why would that guy be a reach at 1:5? What I am questioning is the info we are getting, not you Stotle. We can throw the lack of phycial projection flag, but then why is Dylan Bundy so highly rated in the best draft since 07 or possibly 05? I mean, the dude is like 6'2 just like Bobby and is already a pretty full potato. His profile I didn't think was much better than a sinking low to mid 90 FB that touched higher with a plus curve.....

Were we misinformed(on Hobgood out of HS)?

Or is this just product of us judging a prospect on paper? On paper, Dylan Covey sounded pretty similar to these other guys in that he lacked big time projection but apparently threw low to mid 90's, had a great curve like Hobgood's and even had a solid changeup. He too wasn't rated very highly. Yet Bundy was recently ranked the top prep arm in the 11 draft I think according to PG. And the arms he rated better than are A+ HS arms.....

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This all makes good sense and everything, but something isn't adding up. I mean, if Hobgood SUPPOSEDLY touch 97/98 on occasion and sat 93-94, with the best hook among the HS draft prospects, why would that guy be a reach at 1:5? What I am questioning is the info we are getting, not you Stotle. We can throw the lack of phycial projection flag, but then why is Dylan Bundy so highly rated in the best draft since 07 or possibly 05? I mean, the dude is like 6'2 just like Bobby and is already a pretty full potato. His profile I didn't think was much better than a sinking low to mid 90 FB that touched higher with a plus curve.....

Were we misinformed(on Hobgood out of HS)?

Or is this just product of us judging a prospect on paper? On paper, Dylan Covey sounded pretty similar to these other guys in that he lacked big time projection but apparently threw low to mid 90's, had a great curve like Hobgood's and even had a solid changeup. He too wasn't rated very highly. Yet Bundy was recently ranked the top prep arm in the 11 draft I think according to PG. And the arms he rated better than are A+ HS arms.....

Bundy's stuff is better than Covey's or Hobgood's at the same age (in my opinion).

I think a big issue is trying to judge and compare prospects based on velo readings and broad grades. Plus, I don't think Bundy is any safe bet to go higher than the mid-1st round. Seems to me he'd slot in somewhere between 8-20 right now.

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Jordan went out on a limb with this pick, no doubt. I said that at the time. The difference between you and I, IMO, is that I tend to give Jordan the benefit of the doubt. If Jordan went against consensus and had Hobgood truly rated ahead or even with guys like Wheeler, Matsek, etc. then I take Jordan's side until proven wrong. I think you tend to look at Jordan almost as a competitor since you are a talent evaluator as well. When Jordan does something that you disagree with, you are more critical of him than I am. Jordan is obviously no dummy and got where he's gotten by being a pretty good evaluator. You keep bringing up the lack of projection and other things. I'm sure Jordan was aware of Hobgood's mature physique. He had his reason's for picking him #5. In the end, he's putting his reputation on the line. Again, I give him the benefit of the doubt, in seeing great talent in Hobgood. Perhaps he saw him as a big strong kid who would maintain his velocity and be very durable. I don't know. Again, I give him the benefit of the doubt. You obviously feel he overrated Hobgood's talent as a #5 pick. Jordan doesn't get paid to make the pick that others think he should make. He gets paid to make the pick he thinks he should make. I think that's what a really good talent evaluator would do. Time will tell if Jordan is a really good talent evaluator. With drafts and players being ever evlolving, I think it's still too early to tell if he's just average or better than that.

I don't really care one way or the other if it's Jordan, Johnson, Sawdaye, Wolever or Tinnish. If I think a particular move is one I disagree with, sure I'll voice my opinion. I don't have any feelings towards Jordan at all, save for envy that he has one of the coolest jobs in the world (in my opinion).

What is it about Jordan that leads you to give him the benefit of the doubt over the other pro evaluators that make up the "consensus" in a situation like Hobgood? Is there some aspect of Jordan's resume that leads you to believe he is better than the rest of the evaluators our there, or is it just primarily your support of the Orioles organization?

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I think he is saying he likes that Jordan is not a slave to consensus and Jordan trusts his own evaluation skills over the others.

Which, if true, is a good thing.

Come on. Do you really think there is a scouting director that doesn't trust his own evaluation skills over the "consensus" as reported by the media?

Again, I think people way overestimate the idea of there being consensus as to the top picks in the draft. Draft boards are VERY different from team to team, and I can guarantee exactly zero percent of the scouting departments look at baseball america's rankings and say, "Maybe we're missing something because that's not what our board looks like.

Now, this happens to be a situation where BA talked to enough people who thought Hobgood was an over-draft that they feel comfortable stating it as a quasi-fact (which is a high standard -- BA cross-checks with a lot of people before running with something). But I would bet Hobgood's ranking on boards was scatter-shot between mid-1st and early-2nd round, as opposed to nearly everyone having him around 15-18 overall, for example.

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