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Matt Hobgood Shut Down With Shoulder Injury


Brendan25

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There is nothing that leads me to believe that Jordan is better than the other evaluators out there. I hope he is. There is nothing to lead me to believe that he's worse than the rest of the evaluators out there either. As I said, I think the book is still being written on Jordan. Are you telling me that as an evaluator, that you would never go against the majority opinion and make a pick on your own gut feelings even if it disagreed with the majority of other evaluators?

I think Jordan's resume is tough to read at this point. We still don't have a full read on his early drafts with Reimold, Adams, Mahoney, Erbe, etc, let alone recent drafts with Ohlman, Givens, Coffey, Henry, Hobgood, etc.

What leads you to believe that Jordan is not as good as the rest of the evluators out there?

None of this follows from what I said. I don't understand where you are coming from with these questions, as they are inconsistent (in my opinion) with what I have written in this thread:

  1. I stated that I would voice my opinion no matter which scouting director it was that I disagreed with. How do you interpret that is "I would never go against the majority opinion? I am ONLY interested in my opinion when it comes to evaluating, and discussing my opinion with the evaluators I report to. When my opinion is wrong, I like to learn why. But in formulating, I couldn't care less what any evaluator out there has to say. That doesn't mean I don't enjoy hearing opinions of others, or debating them, but I really strive to not let anyone elses opinion affect me when I'm writing someone up.
  2. I never said Jordan was not as good as the rest of the evaluators -- where are you getting this stuff :)? I said I disagreed with the Hobgood pick. There are plenty of his picks I agree with. I liked Hoes from the drop and have had him consistently rated higher than any "consensus" out in the ether.
  3. When you state that Jordan gets the benefit of the doubt, and list your reason as he is a professional that has earned his position, I understand that. I was asking for you to clarify why he gets affirmative support from you as opposed to the other evaluators who thought Hobgood was an over-draft. Based on your above post, I would think your opinion of Jordan's picks would essentially be "wait and see", but it seems like you affirmatively are supportive of Hobgood. I was just looking for a clarifying reason why.

On the whole, I think Jordan is in the unfortunate position of not benefitting from some extra picks. The fact remains that in January when the BA Prospect Handbook comes out the AL East could have NYA/TAM/TOR in the top 10, BOS in the next 10 (would have been top 10 if not for the AGon trade and will likely be back there next year once the 2010 draft class starts playing), and BAL in the bottom 10. For any number of reasons, the organization is not doing well on the amateur acquisition front. Time will tell if Jordan's last two classes produce some high follow prospects -- hopefully they will.

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What does injury risk have to specifically do for making high school arms a gamble?

Because I saw some research on the draft before and it showed choosing a high school pitcher in the first round is the riskiest pick for that round. It's really all about risk management. Drafting an 18-year old kid as a pitcher is always going to be riskier than drafting a more mature 21-year old.

Me personally, unless I'm wowed by the kid, there's no way I'm taking a high school arm in that first ten picks unless the pick is clearly heard and shoulders above the other selections.

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If we are to believe Hobgood, he was consistently throwing 92-94 his senior year while touching 96-97 on occasion. Most people are down on the pick because of the lack of velocity. Do you think we'd be hearing any of this if Hobgood was being clocked at 92-94 and hitting 96-97 the last 1 1/2 years?

Many have knocked Jordan for picking a HS pitcher, and yet the draft was weak in positional talent, and the strength of the draft looks to have been in HS pitching with Matzek, Miller, Wheeler, etc. going high. Since the draft, people have just piled on because of the radar readings and justificably so. Now we have some information which might explain the significant drop in velocity. I think it actually absolves Jordan of a lot of blame, if true. Are Hobgood's problems because of lack of talent or because of injury? There's no way to prove it was injury but Hobgood's interview could certainly lead one to that belief.

In the end, the only way Jordan comes out looking good is if Hobgood gets back to throwing 92-94 with that hammer curve he showed.

Do we though. Unless Hobgood's been hiding this since he arrived, no one has ever heard of this problem with the Orioles until now as far as I know. I've asked time and time again and no one ever knew of any shoulder concerns from Hobgood. If it was bothering him since he turned pro, he made a mistake of not telling someone.

He's been overweight since he showed up after signing including last season where he was significantly overweight. From all accounts he was busting his butt this off season to get down, and that was great, but it also sounds like he might have pushed himself a little too hard while just going over some mechanics.

Now hopefully he just strained something and a little rehab will get him back healthy. And hopefully this doesn't hold him back from losing the weight. Either way, I think the weight had more to do with the lack of velocity unless he was hiding pain all this time.

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Do we though. Unless Hobgood's been hiding this since he arrived, no one has ever heard of this problem with the Orioles until now as far as I know. I've asked time and time again and no one ever knew of any shoulder concerns from Hobgood. If it was bothering him since he turned pro, he made a mistake of not telling someone.

He's been overweight since he showed up after signing including last season where he was significantly overweight. From all accounts he was busting his butt this off season to get down, and that was great, but it also sounds like he might have pushed himself a little too hard while just going over some mechanics.

Now hopefully he just strained something and a little rehab will get him back healthy. And hopefully this doesn't hold him back from losing the weight. Either way, I think the weight had more to do with the lack of velocity unless he was hiding pain all this time.

If he was, I want him to pitch through the pain for the next decade. They have medications for this. Throw hard young man.

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None of this follows from what I said. I don't understand where you are coming from with these questions, as they are inconsistent (in my opinion) with what I have written in this thread:
  1. I stated that I would voice my opinion no matter which scouting director it was that I disagreed with. How do you interpret that is "I would never go against the majority opinion? I am ONLY interested in my opinion when it comes to evaluating, and discussing my opinion with the evaluators I report to. When my opinion is wrong, I like to learn why. But in formulating, I couldn't care less what any evaluator out there has to say. That doesn't mean I don't enjoy hearing opinions of others, or debating them, but I really strive to not let anyone elses opinion affect me when I'm writing someone up.
  2. I never said Jordan was not as good as the rest of the evaluators -- where are you getting this stuff :)? I said I disagreed with the Hobgood pick. There are plenty of his picks I agree with. I liked Hoes from the drop and have had him consistently rated higher than any "consensus" out in the ether.
  3. When you state that Jordan gets the benefit of the doubt, and list your reason as he is a professional that has earned his position, I understand that. I was asking for you to clarify why he gets affirmative support from you as opposed to the other evaluators who thought Hobgood was an over-draft. Based on your above post, I would think your opinion of Jordan's picks would essentially be "wait and see", but it seems like you affirmatively are supportive of Hobgood. I was just looking for a clarifying reason why.

On the whole, I think Jordan is in the unfortunate position of not benefitting from some extra picks. The fact remains that in January when the BA Prospect Handbook comes out the AL East could have NYA/TAM/TOR in the top 10, BOS in the next 10 (would have been top 10 if not for the AGon trade and will likely be back there next year once the 2010 draft class starts playing), and BAL in the bottom 10. For any number of reasons, the organization is not doing well on the amateur acquisition front. Time will tell if Jordan's last two classes produce some high follow prospects -- hopefully they will.

This is where I have a problem. We cannot expect a top 5 pick stud ever year (Wieters, Matusz) or a huge fleecing (Bedard) to replenish our system. And we cannot make the excuse that our system is barren because everyone has been promoted.

Where are we going to be next year when Britton gets promoted? Hope and pray that are injured arms get better while teams like TAM and TOR have more than 4X the amount of draft picks that we have this upcoming draft? Also hope that TOR, BOS, and the Yanks have complete busts when they shell out the cash internationally?

I want to see a recipe for success.

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Seems like you're picking a fight on this one. I don't think I've been confrontational at all. I think Jordan has done a good job overall. Although he's made a few mistakes I think he's been pretty solid overall. So, when the story has yet to be played out, I still give him the benefit of the doubt on Hobgood. Why do I side with Jordan's opinion of him being worthy of a #5 pick over the consensus opinion of Hobgood being a mid to late first round talent? Again, because I still have a decent amount of confidence that he knows what he's doing and he saw something in Hobgood that warranted being picked at #5.

I don't understand how you turn a question about whether you would go against consenus, as Jordan apparently did in this situation, and turn it into a statement that you would never go against majority opinion. It was a question, not a statement. However, you completely turned it around for whatever reason. Jordan went against consenus in favor of his personal conviction. Time will tell if he was right or wrong. Do you agree that Jordan went against consensus? Is it possible that Jordan is right and the majority is wrong?

I honestly wasn't fired up at all and still am not. I took the "Are you telling me that as an evaluator you would never go against the consensus?" as an odd question. Of course I wasn't saying that -- why would you think that I was? I don't think I've ever projected that line of thinking in my posting.

Yes, of course I agree Jordan went against the consensus. I also think it is possible for Jordan to be right and "consensus" to be wrong (though I do not for a second think that is the case with regards to Hobgood). Time will tell.

Overall, I think Jordan has done "okay". I'd like to see what he could do with more picks and with the 2nd rounder he lost last year. I think the strategy in 2009 was a mistake, and don't expect to see any real impact player coming out of that class. It's, of course, WAY too early to make such a definitive statement, but I can't say I was a big fan of many of the selections. 2010 is a tough class with no 2nd rounder. I liked the Schrader pick and I like Klein a lot as a player (though I think there were better selections for BAL to make there, considering their system). Mummey is a great college player that I think is light for a ML regular (we've been over that). Bridwell is a good risk/reward guy. Anderson would have been an interesting sign. Based on discussions with evaluators in NC, Narron is not a player I would have touched with a 10 ft pole.

It's hard for me to give Jordan real high grades (not that my grades mean anything) when, regardless of who graduated to The Bigs the last two seasons, BAL is staring at a bottom third system. They simply need to do better. Hopefully some of the "down" players will bounce back and Givens will perform over a full season. Again, time will tell.

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I guess we are on different wavelengths. I certainly appears to me that a major part of your argument against drafting Hobgood at #5 was that the consensus opinion was that he wasn't a #5 talent in that draft.

There's no doubt that Jordan drafted him at #5. No one can dispute that. Jordan says he drafted him there on talent, not signability. IF we take him at his word, then he believes that Hobgood's talent was worthy of that spot. If so, Jordan went against the consensus. That doesn't make him wrong, which is why I asked if you would ever do the same sort of thing. Correct me if I"m wrong. You're saying that Jordan picked the wrong guy because you and the majority of experts think he didn't deserve the #5 spot. All I asked was if you might do the same sort of thing in his position by ignoring the majority opinion and going with your own. You seem to be saying that yes, you would go against consensus on occasion. So the argument that consensus was against Hobgood isn't the be all, end all, argument. That's all I'm saying. Consensus in amateur scouting has been wrong many, many times before.

Yeah, we are on different wavelengths for sure. The conversation started out about Hobgood's statements and how you thought they validated Jordan's selection. My quote you posted was in reference to you stating that Hobgood's statement as to his velocity gave credence to Jordon drafting him at 1:5. My point was that BA, Law, etc. were talking to the guys who were clocking him on the gun and those evaluators led BA/Law to believe that Hobgood was not a 1:5 talent.

It has very little to do with "consensus" being necessarily right. My point is that the words coming out of Hobgood's mouth right now mean absolutely nothing in the context of examining Jordan's decision. Hobgood isn't letting the world in on a secret that he and Jordan knew -- the SoCal Area Scouts, Cross-Checkers and Scouting Directors that saw Hobgood had all of this information already. With that info, enough of them thought he was a mid- to late 1st Rd talent that BA, Law, etc. labeled him an overdraft when he was selected.

To answer your question directed at me: yes, of course I would make a decision that went against "consensus" as reported in BA. I just posted like one or two posts ago that when I submit my evals I do so without any care whatsoever as to what someone else thinks. I would have drafted Castellanos in the top half of the first round last year and he lasted into the supplemental. I would have drafted Workman in the mid-1st round and he went to Boston in the 2nd. In my 2010 shadow for DSS I also suggested picks of:

Name - My Round (Actual Round Taken)

Phil Cerreto - 13 (40 to STL)

Tyler Holt - 4 (10 to CLE)

Matt Bischoff - 12 (20 to SEA)

To summarize:

1. I don't think this new info on Hobgood has any bearing on whether or not Jordan made the correct selection. Everything in the article regarding his pre-daft self was already common knowledge. His stuff is clearly down from there. Tony stated that no one in the organization has been aware of any lingering issue.

2. Jordan's pick being a poor one has nothing to do with what the "consesus" said -- I was using that as a counter to your statement that Jordan was a pro and should get the benefit of the doubt. I was only pointing out that another of other pros disagreed.

As an aside, "consensus" is not easily found in the draft. BA cross-checks their stuff rigorously before printing it. If enough evaluators said Hobgood was an overdraft that a conservative-by-nature BA staff went with that, I think it is safe to say Jordan is out on a limb with the pick. There is absolutely nothing wrong with that -- it is what it is.

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Once again, I feel like you are twisting my words. I didn't say it validated Hobgood's selection by Jordan. I've always said that Jordan went out on a limb with the pick and continues to be out on that limb. You may see no difference in "strengthens the judgement Jordan had in picking him" and "validating the pick" but I see a significant difference.

You say that everyone realizes that this isn't the kid that Hobgood drafted but no one was saying anything about an injury possibly being the problem. Now Hobgood has said that. If true, that reinforces the fact that Jordan saw more talent in Hobgood than he's shown thus far. JMO

Fair enough -- distinction noted. I disagree, in any event. There isn't any new knowledge gained, even if we are to believe that Hobgood has been pitching injured (which I'm dubious of). He's operated for two summers injured, throwing at a decreased velocity and he wouldn't think that is something worth mentioning to someone? Sorry, that doesn't make sense on the surface. I do believe he hasn't been "right", but could be easily convinced it's a result of poor conditioning, gained weight, more strenuous season, throwing on shorter rest, throwing against better competition, or any number of non-injury related issues.

Now, if Hobgood comes back after rehab and is his pre-draft self, sure that would strengthen the argument that Jordan's judgment was sound. But it proves nothing until it's shown that there actually was an injury this whole time and that injury was the cause of the poor performance.

I think the pick wouldn't be so heavily critiqued if it wasn't from the particular cross-section of non-projectable, big-body, righty, HS pitcher.

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You could use a drink, dude! I've been nothing but cordial, despite your little jabs and twisting of words. I've defended my opinions and tried to show you WHAT I REALLY SAID and not WHAT YOU THOUGHT I SAID. I actually thought the above post showed that we said the same exact thing in slightly different words. Thanks for the sarcasm and the dismissive tone.

BTW, you yourself just stated that if Hobgood rehabs and comes back to pre-draft velocity that it supports the fact that he was injured. Now you dismiss the whole point out of hand like some waste of time that I put you through. All I did was try to explain myself and my opinion after you questioned it. I think my point in this thread is clear to any rational person. Unfortunately, for some reason, you have ceased to be such a person when it comes to me. Whatever.

:beerchug1: Happy New Year's!

Sorry I misunderstood your original point. I think I was assuming some sort of "now" statement or meaning because Hobgood's explanation makes such little sense to me that I couldn't see a scenario where the convo assumes that explanation to be true.

Aside, come on...no one was trying to twist your words. No one has any vendetta against you.

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I'm not asking you or anyone else to buy Hobgood's statements, hook, line, and sinker. Still the fact that you can't see any realistic scenario that includes Hobgood as telling the truth, seems a bit harsh as well. I say, keep an open mind. It could be true.

For you, RZ, I will keep an open mind. :beerchug1:

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Well Tony, if you take Hobgood at his word, that's exactly what he's saying. He said his shoulder didn't feel right way back in July of 2000 when he reported to Bluefield. He says just that in Melewski's blog. He could be lying and even if he's not he could be wrong about that being the reason for his lost velocity. However it's there in black and white, that Hobgood says his shoulder didn't feel right, right from the beginning and he believes that's what cost him the mph on his fastball.

Again, if he's saying his shoulder never felt right, than why in the heck did he wait until this off season to say something? He was shutdown for a few weeks with some soreness so maybe he did start to realize something needed to be said this past season, but it just seems like a convenient excuse.

Either way, it really doesn't matter at this point, but if he's been having shoulder problems since he was signed that's not something a little rehab is going to miraculously fix.

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By now somebody must have done a study on the value of high school pitchers versus college pitchers as first round draft picks. I'm of the mind that drafting a HS pitcher as a top pick is pretty much always the wrong move. Every now and then a team will hit the jackpot with a HS pick but far, far too many of them end up flaming out because of injuries or other issues in the minors for it to be worth it.

I was high on Matusz when the Orioles drafted him precisely because he was already a polished pitcher with success at the collegiate level. I'd much rather have the college programs develop these pitchers than to have the major league club pay to do so itself.

This was a mistake by Jordan. It looked like a mistake at the time, and everything that has happened since then has confirmed that it was a mistake.

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By now somebody must have done a study on the value of high school pitchers versus college pitchers as first round draft picks. I'm of the mind that drafting a HS pitcher as a top pick is pretty much always the wrong move. Every now and then a team will hit the jackpot with a HS pick but far, far too many of them end up flaming out because of injuries or other issues in the minors for it to be worth it.

I was high on Matusz when the Orioles drafted him precisely because he was already a polished pitcher with success at the collegiate level. I'd much rather have the college programs develop these pitchers than to have the major league club pay to do so itself.

This was a mistake by Jordan. It looked like a mistake at the time, and everything that has happened since then has confirmed that it was a mistake.

IIRC, in the first round of the 2009 draft, there weren't many college options. Almost all of the high school arms had much more upside than the college arms by the 5th pick.

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