How Much Does the Hobgood Pick Affect Your Opinion of Joe Jordan?

[Arthur_Bryant]

Although the Rowell pick looks to have failed he was aligning himself more with the general consensus of experts with being so high on Rowell. With the Hobgood pick, he was pretty much alone.

If the job is aligning yourself with the consensus, then Matzek or Wheeler should be in the O's system.

I do think Jordan needs to be judged on the entire 09 draft, not just Hobgood, and on his entire body of work. But the 09 draft on the whole looks like a disaster at this point, and the entire body of work looks mediocre.

But Jordan can't be judged in a vacuum, either. He's part of an overall talent development system that has not distinguished itself.

[Stotle]

If the job is aligning yourself with the consensus, then Matzek or Wheeler should be in the O's system.

I do think Jordan needs to be judged on the entire 09 draft, not just Hobgood, and on his entire body of work. But the 09 draft on the whole looks like a disaster at this point, and the entire body of work looks mediocre.

But Jordan can't be judged in a vacuum, either. He's part of an overall talent development system that has not distinguished itself.

I think the bolded is important. It's also incredibly difficult to try and figure out the parameters under which Mr. Jordan is operating. If there truly are no limitations to his draft strategy, and he feels the current approach is simply the best way to go about investing money in the draft, I think you can find some issues (particularly with 2009's class).

You can't argue with three of his last four 1st rounders, and I don't think there is an argument that BAL isn't willing to sign an elite talent early. But I do question the idea that there was no "elite" talent available at BAL's 1st round pick in 2009. I understand that is subjective. If BAL were to go more signable, I think the prudent course would have been a probability pick, which would likely have mean a college arm like Leake. As quickly as Leake reached the Majors, he still likely tops out as a #3, and is more likely a #4 with flashes of "3". But it would have been a pick that limited developmental cost and would have essentially paid for itself in three years or so (judging from the time of the draft, and not hindsight).

Overall, there hasn't been much to get excited about in the last couple of drafts. I thought 2008 was a strong effort and really had no issue with the first seven picks (save for Hudson, who was redundant but in a vacuum was a fine pick). 2007, of course, brought Wieters and Arrieta. 2011 needs to be solid, and I think BAL needs to start mixing it up with some of the "elite" HS arms, and not rely on the yet-to-breakout crowd. There will be a number of strong HS arms that will drop to the later single-digit rounds because of the lack of slots up top and the high number of college arms. I think BAL needs to target one or two of these guys with a willingness to spend $600-900K on them. This needs to be an impact class and all the ingredients are there for BAL to add some talent.

Of course, as we all know, BOS/TOR/TAM are loaded with early picks, so even if BAL nails their draft, it may yet be a while before the system starts clawing back towards the top where TAM/NYA/TOR currently sit.

[srock]

I'm far more concerned with Jordan's inability to get some guys in the later rounds who become ML starters. You gotta hit on some lower picks at some point.

Did he draft Bergesen?

[Tony-OH]

I'm far more concerned with Jordan's inability to get some guys in the later rounds who become ML starters. You gotta hit on some lower picks at some point.

Did he draft Bergesen?

No, Bergesen was a DeMacio selection.

[Enjoy Terror]

I don't know that I could weigh in on this without knowing how much pressure was put on Jordan from up above to not put money into a legitimate first round talent that would have been within the top ten players selected. Hobgood was no where near that talented going into the draft, although I don't doubt his abilities. I'd be curious to know if Jordan stands behind his pick.

Jordan is no Ozzie Newsome, that's for sure. But I can't imagine that Newsome would be as awesome as he if Bisciotti was a clueless meddling control freak. And he's not. PA might be.

[clapdiddy]

I don't know that I could weigh in on this without knowing how much pressure was put on Jordan from up above to not put money into a legitimate first round talent that would have been within the top ten players selected. Hobgood was no where near that talented going into the draft, although I don't doubt his abilities. I'd be curious to know if Jordan stands behind his pick.

Jordan is no Ozzie Newsome, that's for sure. But I can't imagine that Newsome would be as awesome as he if Bisciotti was a clueless meddling control freak. And he's not. PA might be.

Might?

[Sports Guy]

I liked JJ at first but I really don't think he is anything special. I like that he says he goes for BPA but either he is skirting around the truth(ie, money plays a part into BPA) there or just isn't the best talent evaluator.

The Hobgood pick just kind of put it over the top for me. It was a terrible pick IMO.

[Ruzious]

It's basically the same situation as when he made the pick. My thoughts then were - he went out on limb to pick Hobgood where nobody else had him ranked that high. He insisted... the pick had absolutely nothing to do with money, so I take him at his word. Green and Matzek appeared to - pretty much every average fan - to be vastly superior options - with Green playing a position where we had basically no talent at the minor league and major league levels. So, if this pick doesn't do well and Green and Matzek do do very well, it's more than a bad pick - It's a legacy making bad pick. That hasn't changed, imo.

[DrungoHazewood]

Somewhere in between...I'm of the opinion that it is almost always a dumb idea to draft a high school pitcher with a high first round pick, so I think Jordan was just stupid to take that kind of gamble.

While it appears that high school pitchers are more risky than college pitchers or all types of position players, I don't think a blanket rule is justified. Greinke, Jenks, Floyd, Beckett, Kershaw, Bumgarner, Kerry Wood, Garland... all high school pitchers drafted in the top 10 picks.

It's basically the same situation as when he made the pick. My thoughts then were - he went out on limb to pick Hobgood where nobody else had him ranked that high. He insisted... the pick had absolutely nothing to do with money, so I take him at his word. Green and Matzek appeared to - pretty much every average fan - to be vastly superior options - with Green playing a position where we had basically no talent at the minor league and major league levels. So, if this pick doesn't do well and Green and Matzek do do very well, it's more than a bad pick - It's a legacy making bad pick. That hasn't changed, imo.

That's my feeling, as it's always been. You go out on a limb, you go against consensus, you're putting your read end on the line. When virtually all of the early returns are negative, your reputation has to take a hit. Hobgood could still turn things around, but you have to think the odds are 80/20 against, if not worse.

[Enjoy Terror]

High School Draft Picks since 1991 the Orioles Developed and made it to the Majors (By WAR):

The guys who actually played for us:

Jerry Hairston Jr. 9.6 (4 years in O's minors, 7/13 seasons with O's)

Jim Johnson 3.9 (7 years in O's minors, 5 seasons with O's)

Brad Bergesen 3.3 (5 years in O's minors, 2 seasons with O's)

John Parrish 1.5 (6 years in O's minors, 6/8 seasons with O's)

Rocky Coppinger 1.3 (3 years in O's minors, 4/5 seasons with O's)

Chris Britton 1.0 (5 years in O's minors, 1/3 seasons with O's)

Adam Loewen 0.9 (3 years in O's minors, 3 seasons with O's)

Jimmy Haynes 0.8 (7 years in O's minors, 2/10 seasons with O's)

Tim Raines Jr. 0.7 (8 years in O's minors, 3 seasons with O's)

Calvin Pickering 0.2 (7 years in O's minors, 2/5 seasons with O's)

Brandon Snyder 0.1 (6 years in O's minors, 1 season with O's)

Howie Clark 0.0 (10 years in O's minors, 2/6 seasons with O's)

Matt Riley -0.2 (6 years in O's minors, 3/4 seasons with O's)

Steve Bechler -0.3 (5 years in O's minors, 1 season with O's)

Darnell McDonald -0.5 (7 years in O's minors, 1/4 season with O's)

Brian Falkenborg -1.1 (4 years in O's minors, 1/6 season with O's)

Curtis Goodwin -1.2 (5 years in O's minors, 1/5 season with O's)

Sean Douglass -1.3 (7 years in O's minors, 3/5 seasons with O's)

Chris Fussell -1.8 (5 years in O's minors, 1/3 seasons with O's)

Ryan Minor -2.9 (5 years in O's minors, 3/4 seasons with O's)

Hayden Penn -4.2 (6 years in O's minors, 2/4 seasons with O's)

The guys we never brought up:

Jayson Werth 18.7 (4 years in O's minors)

Alex Ochoa 6.2 (5 years in O's minors)

Rommie Lewis -0.2 (7 years in O's minors)

David Lamb -1.3 (6 years in O's minors)

Congrats O's!

[Frobby]

High School Draft Picks since 1991 the Orioles Developed and made it to the Majors (By WAR):

Hopefully Zach Britton breaks the string.

[tywright]

What really is disappointing is the fact that they went for signability in the 1st round (5th overall vs 11th largest signing) and didn't take advantage of overslot guys like Will Myers and Andrew Oliver in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Instead we made expensive gambles in the later rounds that haven't materialized.

[allstar1579]

What really is disappointing is the fact that they went for signability in the 1st round (5th overall vs 11th largest signing) and didn't take advantage of overslot guys like Will Myers and Andrew Oliver in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Instead we made expensive gambles in the later rounds that haven't materialized.

Yeah, overslots can go one of two ways, quantity in the later rounds (a few guys in the 500-900k range) or quality (one or two guys in the > $1m range) in the top couple rounds. JJ seems to like the sheer numbers of the draft, spreading his investment out and hoping he hits a couple times. I don't necessarily disagree with his approach, it's just one way to go. I would rather see some diversity though. Seems like a real high concentration of JUCO and injury recovery picks to me.

I'd love to see a high priced gamble in there somewhere, and if you are going to go safe and signable go with the college players.

[hoosiers]

So, if this pick doesn't do well and Green and Matzek do do very well, it's more than a bad pick - It's a legacy making bad pick. That hasn't changed, imo.

This is a bit much, don't you think? You want our guy to go with a consensus talent instead of who his gut feeling? I end up posting this multiple times a year, but our most "consensus" draft was 2001 when the Os ended up with six BA Top 100 guys in Smith, Fontenot, Bass, Lewis, Crouthers and JJ. Beato was a BA Top 15 guy before 2006. The consensus is wrong on the time.

The Hobgood pick is clearly on Joe Jordan and I expect he would be the first one to admit it. It was on JJ before the decision to go with Hobgood, immediately after and still today. It may well have been a blown pick and our system could use an additional big time prospect, but JJ is not the first Scouting Director to blow a high draft pick and he won't be the last. Folks here often think it was easy to pick Wieters and Matusz and have posted that he deserves little credit for it. Tim Beckham/Ross Detwiler and many other very early picks are not turning out so well. It comes with the territory.

Missing on Hobgood is hardly a "legacy ruining pick".

[Enjoy Terror]

Billy Rowell was a consensus top 10 pick.